Oregon vs. Vanderbilt in March Madness: Prediction for 2025 NCAA Tournament opener

After a two-year hiatus, the Oregon women's basketball team finally made its return to March Madness, earning a No. 10 seed in the bracket. The Ducks will take on No. 7 Vanderbilt in the first round Friday, with the winner taking on either regional host No. 2 Duke or No. 15 Lehigh next Sunday.

The Ducks (19-11, 10-8 Big Ten) are over a week removed from going one-and-done at the Big Ten Tournament, dropping a double-digit defeat to Indiana in the second round of the tournament, and will face a Commodores (22-10, 8-8 SEC) squad with major firepower offensively.

Buy Oregon NCAA Tournament tickets vs. Vanderbilt

Oregon women's basketball vs. Vanderbilt scouting report

The Commodores finished in the exact same position in the SEC that the Ducks did in the Big Ten: Eighth. Headed by fourth-year coach Shea Ralph, who starred at UConn from 1996-2001, Vanderbilt finished No. 22 in the NCAA's NET rankings, but carried just a 3-9 record against quadrant 1 teams, going 19-1 against everyone else.

It will be the first-ever meeting between Oregon and Vanderbilt Friday.

"I didn't get to see Vanderbilt much," Oregon coach Kelly Graves said. "Shea Ralph, their coach, Connecticut pedigree both as a player and coach, so you know they run good stuff ... I'm just glad to be in the field, at this point everybody is a really good team. We've got our work cut out for us."

The Commodores are led by a young superstar duo in freshman sensation Mikayla Blakes and sophomore Khamil Pierre, who Graves said he was high on when she starred in high school in Arizona. Blakes, the SEC rookie of the year, is averaging 23.2 points per game and has scored over 50 points in a game twice this season, against Auburn and Florida. Pierre isn't far behind, averaging 20.5 points per game to go along with 9.7 rebounds.

Vanderbilt finished fourth in the SEC in points scored per game at 83.6, a stark contrast to Oregon's 68.2. However, the Ducks have a significantly better defense, holding opponents to 62.9 points while Vandy ranked in the bottom half of the SEC, allowing 68.8 points per game.

Oregon is led by Deja Kelly's 11.6 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 3.4 assists per game, while Peyton Scott averages 10.1 points and 2.6 rebounds per game.

Oregon guard Deja Kelly presses toward the basket as the Oregon Ducks host the Purdue Boilermakers Wednesday, Jan. 15, 2025, at Matthew Knight Arena in Eugene, Ore.

Oregon women's basketball vs. Vanderbilt predictions, odds

At BetMGM as of Sunday night, the Oregon women's odds to win the national championship are +50000 to Vandy's +25000. South Carolina is the betting favorite at +270.

According to Torvik, a website that provides advanced analytics and data for college basketball teams, the Ducks have a 30.1% chance of advancing to the round of 32, a 6.1% chance to going to the Sweet 16, a 1.8% chance of advancing to the Elite Eight, and a 0.2% chance at a Final Four appearance.

Alec Dietz covers University of Oregon football, volleyball, women’s basketball and baseball for The Register-Guard. You may reach him at adietz@registerguard.com and you can follow him on X @AlecDietz.

This article originally appeared on Register-Guard: Oregon vs. Vanderbilt prediction: Women's March Madness bracket pick

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