March Madness upset predictions 2025: Pick these early NCAA Tournament exits
The NCAA Tournament brackets are out, and there is a long list of matchups with upset potential on Thursday and Friday.
As is usual, 5-12 games and 6-11 games will be the target of most upset nods. 5-seeds were 2-2 in 2024, and 6-seeds were 1-3.
Since 2018, all 1-and-2-seeds have advanced to the second round in a season just twice. Last year, 3-seed Kentucky and 4-seed Auburn were the only teams upset among the top seeds.
Will a massive upset happen this year? Here are our first-round upset predictions, updating throughout the night and into Monday.
March Madness upset predictions 2025
Derrian Carter, The Greenville News
First-round upset pick: 11-seed North Carolina over 6-seed Ole Miss in South Region
The Tar Heels were given a break to make the NCAA tournament and will take advantage of their final chance. They will win their First Four game then carry that momentum to an upset over Ole Miss.
Jonah Dylan, Commercial Appeal
First-round upset pick: 12-seed UC San Diego over 5-seed Michigan in South Region
The Tritons have been one of college basketball’s best stories this season, and they keep it going with their first-ever NCAA tournament win.
Nick Gray, The Tennessean
First-round upset pick: 12-seed UC San Diego over 5-seed Michigan in South Region
UC San Diego's Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones will be the star of the tournament's first weekend. Book it.
Sam Hutchens, Clarion Ledger
First-round upset pick: 10-seed Vanderbilt over 7-seed Saint Mary's in South Region
Vanderbilt has the firepower to beat Saint Mary’s, and the Commodores may not stop there. Vanderbilt has taken down some of the SEC’s best, and won’t blink if it meets No. 2 Alabama in the next round
Cecil Joyce, The Daily News Journal
First-round upset pick: 13-seed High Point over 4-seed Purdue in Midwest Region
This Boilermaker team is far from last year’s runner-up. The 13-4 matchup is the new 12-5. Yale, Grand Canyon and Akron could all pull off first-round upsets as 13 seeds.
Tom Kreager, The Tennessean
First-round upset pick: 11-seed North Carolina over 6-seed Ole Miss in South Region
Who said The Tar Heels don't deserve to be in the NCAA Tournament? North Carolina not only wins a play-in game, but then knocks off the Rebels.
Sam Sklar, Clarion Ledger
First-round upset pick: 12-seed UC San Diego over 5-seed Michigan in the South Region
Yes, Michigan won the Big Ten tournament and has a new coach in Dusty May that led FAU to the Final Four recently. However, this Michigan team is inconsistent and UC San Diego can win with its prolific 3-point shooting.
This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: March Madness upset predictions 2025: Pick NCAA Tournament early exits
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