Can Vanderbilt basketball reach Sweet 16 in March Madness bracket? Our prediction
Vanderbilt basketball is headed to March Madness as a No. 10 seed, slated to face No. 7 seed Saint Mary's.
The Commodores (20-12) are making their first NCAA tournament appearance since 2017 in their first season under Mark Byington. They will play Friday at 2:15 p.m. CT on truTV.
Buy Vanderbilt NCAA Tournament tickets vs. Saint Mary's
Vanderbilt last made a run to the Sweet 16 in 2007. The program has one Elite Eight appearance, in 1965, but have never made it to the Final Four.
The winner of the Commodores' matchup will face No. 2 seed Alabama in the second round. This is possible due to a new rule implemented amid conference expansion that teams in the same conference can meet as early as the second round if they only played each other once during the season.
Here's why Vanderbilt can − and can't − make a run:
2025 March Madness prediction for Vanderbilt
Why Vanderbilt can reach the Sweet 16: Its opponents are familiar
Vanderbilt did not face its first-round opponent, Saint Mary's, this season. But the Gaels' style of play is familiar: they have a similar profile to Texas A&M, a team that provided the Commodores with their lone Quadrant 1 road win of the season.
Should Vanderbilt defeat Saint Mary's, the Commodores would likely face No. 2 seed Alabama, a team they already faced on the road earlier this season. While Vanderbilt lost by 16, it hung with the Crimson Tide in the second half. In a tournament where there is very little preparation time for the next opponent, that could prove an advantage.
Why Vanderbilt can't reach the Sweet 16: Its defense isn't up to snuff
According to analytics website Bart Torvik, Vanderbilt's adjusted defensive efficiency is No. 84 in the country. That's the third-worst among any team that got an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament.
Typically, teams that are unbalanced by being much better on one side of the ball than the other don't advance very far.
Why Vanderbilt can reach the Sweet 16: Guard play matters in March
When Vanderbilt has struggled, it's often because of its bigs, Devin McGlockton and Jaylen Carey, playing poorly or getting in foul trouble.
But history has shown that post play often goes out the window in March, and guard play really matters. The Commodores have strong guard play with Jason Edwards, Chris Manon and AJ Hoggard, and Hoggard has March experience.
Why Vanderbilt can't reach the Sweet 16: Its potential opponents have a lot of size
Vanderbilt has struggled this season against teams that have a lot of size due to its lack of an interior presence. Both Saint Mary's and Alabama, its potential opponents, are full of size. The two rosters combined have seven players who are 6-foot-10 or taller; the Commodores' tallest player is 6-8.
Why Vanderbilt can make the Sweet 16: MJ Collins and Grant Huffman healthy
When Vanderbilt lost its last three games of the regular season, it was without one or both of MJ Collins and Grant Huffman. The two guards may not stuff the stat sheet, but they are two of the Commodores' top defensive players.
It is expected that both players will be back for March Madness (and Collins returned for the SEC tournament). That could give Vanderbilt a boost.
Why Vanderbilt can't make the Sweet 16: Saint Mary's and Alabama are strong for their seed line
Saint Mary's rated out as the second-strongest 7-seed, according to KenPom, one spot behind Kansas. The Gaels are also ahead of two 5-seeds and two 6-seeds by predictive metrics. Those same predictive metrics have Saint Mary's as either the strongest or second-strongest 2-seed. That means that for a 10-seed, the Commodores have an unusually difficult path.
2025 March Madness prediction for Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt puts up a good fight, but ultimately can't overcome a rebounding deficit against a good Saint Mary's squad.
Aria Gerson covers Vanderbilt athletics for The Tennessean. Contact her at agerson@gannett.com or on X, formerly Twitter, @aria_gerson.
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This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: Vanderbilt NCAA bracket predictions: Can Commodores reach Sweet 16?
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