Michigan basketball vs UC San Diego score prediction: Our March Madness pick is in
DENVER — The day is finally here: After two seasons without, Michigan basketball finally has an NCAA tournament game again.
The 5-seed Wolverines (24-9, 14-6 Big Ten) will take on 12-seed UC San Diego at 10 p.m. Thursday (TBS) in the first round of the South region. U-M arrived in the Mile High City on Tuesday afternoon, then held practice Wednesday afternoon at Ball Arena to familiarize themselves with the court and sight lines.
Despite the maize-and-blue absence the past two tourneys, the Wolverines are a group that actually has a decent amount of postseason experience — head coach Dusty May and center Vlad Goldin went to the Final Four together in 2023 at FAU, Sam Walters (not expected to play Thursday) was a part of Alabama's run to the Final Four in 2024, Danny Wolf won an NCAA game last year when Yale beat Tre Donaldson's Auburn squad and Rubin Jones' North Texas team knocked off Purdue in 2021, his freshman year — just not all together.
"It definitely helps," Nimari Burnett said. "The guys who've played in it can tell the younger guys what to expect whether it's small details about a court, the ball or the game itself. ... Those are things we all, like, communicated with each other on what to expect."
This matchup is unique among this year's first-round clashes, for multiple reasons.
UC San Diego doesn't have much size. Its tallest player stands at 6 feet 8, which leads many to believe that U-M's 7-footers — Goldin and Wolf — should have a major advantage, even against a wonky matchup zone that tries to limit touches in the paint. But the real point of focus? Turnovers.
U-M finished last in the Big Ten in turnover rate, while UCSD is No. 2 nationally in forcing them, at 23.3%.
"They're scrappy, they're handsy," May said this week on "Inside Michigan Basketball," U-M's in-house radio show. "Obviously when your biggest concern every night is your inability to take care of the ball ... and you're playing a team that's as good as any in America at turning people over, that usually calls for a lot of upset picks."
UC San Diego brings heat
On the other side of the court, U-M has to know where Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones is at all times.
The New Zealander, No. 10 in KenPom's Player of the Year rankings, averages 19.5 points per game and is what some would refer to as a "foul merchant." He consistently draws contact and has tried (293) and made (222) more free throws than any other player in the country.
Though he is the focal point, UCSD also has multiple capable outside shooters in Tyler McGhie and Hayden Gray, who combined shoot almost exactly 40% from 3 on 13 attempts per game. Then there's Nordin Kapic a 6-8 center who loves to stretch defenses. Though he's not an elite 3-point shooter (30.8%) while taking five attempts per game, expect him to try and pull Goldin out of the middle of the paint.
But perhaps what's most impressive about head coach Eric Olen's team is that it transitioned to Division I in 2020 but only became eligible for the postseason this year and still lives in its Division II identity: five-out on offense while itsdefense was inspired by former fellow D-II squad Cal Poly Pomona.
The Tritons have six former D-II players on their roster — including four of their starters and sixth man — which is something the players said will aid them, not hinder them.
"Been overlooked my whole life," Tait-Jones said Wednesday. "That extra motivation … definitely helps."
Still, as far as U-M is concerned, this is about them and how they perform.
Michigan brings size
Goldin has been on an absolute heater, having scored in double figures in 26 of 28 games. Wolf had three straight double-doubles before an off game vs. Wisconsin.
Guard Tre Donaldson, meanwhile, has found his groove again. After scoring 10 or fewer in six of seven games, Donaldson scored 11 or more in all three Big Ten tournament games, which included a game-winning layup against Maryland in the last second and a go-ahead 3-pointer vs. Wisconsin in the final minutes.
"We can carry the momentum, but the Big Ten tournament is done," Donaldson said. "It's time for March Madness, so just not getting too high and staying neutral. ... Being ready for whatever's thrown at us."
Michigan is not expecting to have Walters (back) or freshman Justin Pippen (concussion protocol) available for Thursday's game, which will put more pressure on Roddy Gayle Jr. to be efficient and freshman L.J. Cason to finish as he did vs. the Badgers.
The Wolverines also will need to make shots. They have shot worse than 35% on 3s in 15 of 16 games, so it's worth watching where that number finishes.
"That's been the coaches' emphasis," Burnett said of turnovers and 3s. "That's 1A and 1B."
Tony Garcia's prediction for Michigan basketball vs. UD San Diego
Michigan is an astounding 11-1 in its past 12 games decided by two possessions or fewer, a testament to its ability to remain poised in key moments and execute in the clutch. UCSD has the longest winning streak of any team in the nation and is a tough matchup stylistically but doesn't have quite enough size to hang with U-M. The Tritons put a scare in the Wolverines, but as they've done all year, they simply find a way to survive and advance. Look for a big game from Wolf. The pick: U-M 75, UC San Diego 69.
Tony Garcia is the Michigan Wolverines beat writer for the Detroit Free Press. Email him at apgarcia@freepress.com and follow him on X at @RealTonyGarcia.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Michigan basketball vs UC San Diego score prediction: Our March Madness pick is in
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