2 reasons Michigan basketball will win, lose opening round of March Madness
DENVER — It's been 1,090 days and counting since Michigan basketball was last in the Big Dance.
That was March 24, 2022, when U-M had made its fifth consecutive Sweet 16 − a program record − but bowed out to Villanova. The Wolverines missed the NCAA tournament in each of the past two seasons, but after a standout season (24-9, 14-6 Big Ten) they're well-positioned as a 5-seed in the South region against 12-seed UC San Diego.
Despite the higher seed, this won't be a cake walk as the Tritons are poised and a unique matchup. That said, U-M is the favorite for a reason.
Here are two reasons Michigan will win the matchup and two reasons it could lose:
Two reasons Michigan will beat UC San Diego
Wolverines have size advantage
Michigan is the fifth tallest team in the country, and is the only team in America that boasts a pair of 7-footers in its starting lineup. UC San Diego, meanwhile, doesn't have a single player taller than 6 feet 8, which could lead one to believe that U-M should feast inside. As is often the case, however, it's not quite that simple. The Tritons play a wonky matchup zone, shape-shifting with the ball as it flows side-to-side against them and does a good job keeping it from getting in the paint most of the time. That said, they haven't seen a team this season nearly as capable as U-M offensively.
Danny Wolf, as he has all year, should provide a matchup nightmare for UCSD while Vladislav Goldin figures to be able to carve out space near the basket where he's been tremendous at finishing all year. It helps that the Tritons aren't deep (No. 335 in bench minutes) and U-M's size and new-found physicality (see 47-18 rebounding margin vs. Maryland) should play nicely here.
Watch Michigan's March Madness game vs. UC San Diego
Michigan is battle tested
The Wolverines have 12 victories over Big Ten opponents by four points or fewer this year, which is the most by any team in any league in the history of college basketball, according to CBS Sports' Matt Norlander. While that might sound like U-M is punching above its weight, it also shows that Dusty May's group knows how to win the tight contests. Michigan was an astounding 11-2 in the Big Ten in games decided by two possessions or fewer − only Oregon and UCLA (both 7) had even half as many such victories.
It's not like U-M has only won close − it's blown out tournament teams like Purdue (86-68) and UCLA (94-75) − and lost some tight games by two points or fewer to Oklahoma, Wake Forest and Arkansas. But those were all early in the year and since then, in the past two months, U-M has only lost one close game (71-65 to Maryland at the end of the regular season). There's a confidence in these games that if they're close late, the Wolverines will find a way. Not to mention, UCSD has played just five games vs. top-100 opponents (UC Irvine was three of those) while every game this calendar year except home against Washington has been a top-100 matchup for U-M.
Two reasons the Wolverines will lose
Turnover troubles
Michigan, which ranks No. 328 out of 364 teams per KenPom in turnover rate will now have to play a team that forces giveaways on 23.3% of its possessions, the second best rate in the nation. On top of that, UCSD doesn't beat itself on the offensive end, playing a patient brand of basketball, rarely turning it over at just a 13.4% clip with only six games this year of double-digit giveaways. Now, U-M has won games where turnovers were issues, most notably topping Maryland on Saturday in the Big Ten tournament semifinal despite committing 19 turnovers that led to 29 points, but giveaways play into the hands of the Tritons. Michigan has shown an ability to play clean basketball (see six turnovers last week vs. Purdue) but truth be told that's seemingly been the exception, not the rule. Michigan's guards need to stay patient and settle for singles and it will be key to fake a pass to make a pass, with the Tritons living in passing lanes better than any team U-M has seen this year (even MSU).
3-point barrage is overwhelming
UC San Diego is going to make 3-pointers − and if it doesn't it will be the first time. The Tritons are one of the better teams in the country from long-range, checking in No. 57 nationally from deep (36.5%) and even better than that on overall field goal efficiency (55.4%), No. 32 in the country. UCSD scores 39.9% of its points from long range while deep shots make up 49.6% of its field goal tries. If Michigan is closing out well and limiting second chances (the Tritons are terrible on the offensive glass, ranked No. 307 in the country) then this won't be as much of an issue. However, as mentioned above, UCSD is endlessly patient and plenty happy to shoot with one second left on the clock. Not to mention, it has a number of capable weapons, notably Tyler McGhie (37.2%) who takes nine 3-pointers per game. UCSD averages about 11 made out of 29 attempts per game: if that number is below 10, U-M has a good chance. If it's closer to 13 or 14? That could spell trouble.
Tony Garcia is the Michigan Wolverines beat writer for the Detroit Free Press. Email him at apgarcia@freepress.com and follow him on X at @RealTonyGarcia.
Next up: Tritons
Matchup: 5-seed Michigan (25-9) vs. 12-seed UC San Diego (30-4), NCAA tournament first round, South region.
Tipoff: 10 p.m. Thursday; Ball Arena, Denver.
TV/radio: TBS; WWJ-AM (950).
At stake: Winner faces winner of Texas A&M-Yale on Saturday for berth in Sweet 16 in Atlanta.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Michigan basketball in March Madness: 2 ways to win, 2 ways to lose
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