Oregon Basketball vs Liberty prediction: Our pick for 2025 NCAA Tournament first round

The Oregon Ducks matchup in the first round of March Madness is set, with the Ducks earning a five-seed and a game against the 12-seed Liberty Flames. Oregon has won eight of their last nine games and Liberty has won 11 of 12, beating Jacksonville State on Saturday in the CUSA Championship to punch their tournament ticket.

Liberty is a strong team on both defense and offense. At 39% flat, the Flames have the sixth-best three-point percentage in the country, and they are undefeated when they hold their opponents to 70 points or fewer — something they've done 25 times this season.

Oregon and Liberty's football teams faced off a year ago in the 2024 Fiesta Bowl, when the Flames were the best team in the Group of Five. The Ducks won that Fiesta Bowl, defeating the Flames 45-6.

No. 5 vs. No. 12 seed matchups are always exciting, and they offer so much upset potential (12-seeds are 55-101 (.353) against 5-seeds since the tournament expanded in 1985). The Ducks were on the flip side of the 5-12 line last year, when they defeated No. 5 South Carolina as the Pac-12 Champion and automatic qualifier.

Matchup Overview

Liberty plays elite defense and offense, and their stellar three-point shooting can break games open in a hurry. The Flames are led by their senior guards Taieon Peter and Kaden Metheny, who each average over 13 points per game and make major contributions to the Flames' 39.0 three-point percentage. For the Ducks to win, they'll need to limit Liberty's opportunities for easy threes.

Where the Ducks may have an advantage is size and strength in the post. Liberty's tallest player who plays more than 20 minutes per game, Owen Aquino, is 6 foot 8 inches and 230 pounds. In contrast, Oregon's starting center, Nate Bittle, is 7 feet tall and 215 pounds. Bittle likes to play with his back to the basket where his size may offer him a big advantage for hook shots and layups.

Names to Know

Oregon

Jackson Shelstad: 13.2 Pts, 2.9 Reb, 2.7 Ast

Nate Bittle: 14.1 Pts, 7.4 Reb, 1.9 Ast

TJ Bamba: 10.4 Pts, 3.5 Reb, 2.9 Ast

Liberty

Taeion Peter: 13.9 Pts, 4.1 Reb, 1.1 Ast

Kaden Metheny: 13.5 Pts, 2.9 Reb, 2.0 Ast

Zach Cleveland: 11.0 Pts, 6.3 Reb, 5.1 Ast

Keys to the Game

Oregon

Tough perimeter defense
Get Nate Bittle post touches as often as possible
Protect the ball. Finish with fewer than 14 turnovers

Liberty

Find a rhythm from three-point range early on
Handcuff Jackson Shelstad on defense
Create driving lanes for G Kaieon Peter, who shoots 76.1% from two-point range

Odds and Prediction

Moneyline: Oregon: -220 | Liberty: +185

Spread: Oregon: -4.5 points

Over/Under: 139.5 points

Our Pick: Liberty shoots the ball like crazy and its defense is fantastic, but the Flames haven't played too many teams like the Oregon Ducks this season. Tenacious defense — particularly when closing out jump shots — will be paramount, and on offense, look for Nate Bittle to have a big day. I'll take the Ducks to win and cover.

This article originally appeared on Ducks Wire: Oregon vs Liberty prediction, pick for March Madness first round