March Madness: Ranking a heavyweight Sweet 16 from most to least likely to win the national title

Last November, 364 Division I men’s college basketball teams started the season with dreams of advancing to the NCAA tournament’s second week.

The 16 that remain all have one thing in common: They each hail from a power conference.

Seven are from the SEC — a Sweet 16 record. Four are from the Big Ten. Four are from the Big 12. One is from the ACC. The rest of college basketball’s 31 conferences were shut out. Even the vaunted Big East failed to advance a team beyond the round of 32.

The lack of small-conference charm in this year’s NCAA tournament is unprecedented in the event’s history. The closest thing to a Cinderella is John Calipari-coached Arkansas. Even Gonzaga went home early.

This is the first time the Sweet 16 consists entirely of teams from major conferences, per OptaStats, since the NCAA tournament expanded to 32 teams in 1975. Every other previous Sweet 16 had at least seven different conferences represented. As recently as 2023, nine conferences sent a team to the second week.

Is the disappearance of Cinderella in this year’s NCAA tournament a weird blip or the start of a trend? Many across college basketball fear it could be the latter.

Conference consolidation has led to power conferences swallowing up some of the best teams from smaller leagues. In this year’s Sweet 16 alone, BYU played in the West Coast Conference and Houston in the American as recently as 2023.

Then there’s college basketball’s changing landscape. The loosening of NIL rules and the ability to transfer without penalty has funneled top mid-major players to power-conference programs with more money to throw around.

The result is a heavyweight Sweet 16 featuring many of college basketball’s perennial titans and no unexpected interlopers. Here’s a look at how I’d rank the Sweet 16 from most likely to least likely to win the national championship:

1. DUKE (33-3)

How it got here: Defeated Mount St. Mary’s (16), Baylor (9)

Up next: Arizona (4)

BetMGM odds:+225

Outlook: It wasn’t that long that critics labeled Tyrese Proctor an underachiever after an underwhelming, injury-plagued sophomore season. Now he’s rewriting his legacy one clutch 3-pointer at a time. What Quinn Cook was for Duke’s freshman-laden 2015 title team, Proctor is for this year’s Blue Devils. The junior has provided defense, leadership and deadeye shooting, taking advantage of the defensive attention his teammates draw to hit nearly 40% of his threes. Proctor shot 7-for-8 from behind the arc against Baylor on Sunday as Duke piled up the most points per possession in an NCAA tournament game in nine years.

FILE - Florida guard Walter Clayton Jr. (1) reacts to a basket against Alabama during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game in the semifinals of the Southeastern Conference tournament, Saturday, March 15, 2025, in Nashville, Tenn. (AP Photo/George Walker IV, File( — Florida guard Walter Clayton Jr. has powered the Gators to the Sweet 16. (AP Photo)

2. FLORIDA (32-4)

How it got here: Defeated Norfolk State (16), UConn (8)

Up next: Maryland (4)

BetMGM odds: +425

Outlook: Two-time reigning national champion UConn wasn’t going to give up its crown easily. Florida had to wrest it away. Walter Clayton Jr. put the Gators on his back after they fell behind by as many as six points deep into the second half. Clayton sank a pair of heavily contested 3-pointers in the final three minutes, the first to give Florida its first lead of the second half and the second to extend the advantage to six with just over a minute to play. “Credit Clayton,” UConn coach Dan Hurley said. “He made some NBA-level 3s off the dribble to beat us. It took that for somebody to put us down.”

3. HOUSTON (32-4)

How it got here: Defeated SIU Edwardsville (16), Gonzaga (8)

Up next: Purdue (4)

BetMGM odds: +500

Outlook: It’s fitting that Houston was the team that halted Gonzaga’s record-tying streak of nine Sweet 16s in a row. Now the Cougars have men’s college basketball’s longest active streak of six straight Sweet 16s. Last March, a 32-win Houston team led fourth-seeded Duke 16-10 early in their Sweet 16 matchup when Cougars star Jamal Shead sprained his ankle and didn’t return. Houston only tallied 35 points the rest of the game and lost 54-51. Shead has moved on to the NBA, but the returning players that Kelvin Sampson brought back have unfinished business to deal with.

4. AUBURN (30-5)

How it got here: Defeated Alabama State (16), Creighton (9)

Up next: Michigan (5)

BetMGM odds: +550

Outlook: Bruce Pearl struck a confident tone despite Auburn entering the NCAA tournament having dropped three of its last four games. When asked his level of concern, a scowling Pearl scoffed at the question, telling reporters sarcastically, “We lost to Alabama, Tennessee, at Texas A&M. Yeah, we’re panicked.” Auburn at last recaptured its previous form against Creighton on Saturday. The Tigers displayed a different level of defensive urgency, dominated the glass and leaned on secondary scoring threats with All-American Johni Broome enduring an off night shooting the ball.

LEXINGTON, KENTUCKY - MARCH 22: Tennessee Volunteers head coach Rick Barnes addresses his players in the locker room after defeated the UCLA Bruins during the second round of the 2025 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament held at Rupp Arena on March 22, 2025 in Lexington, Kentucky. (Photo by Tyler Schank/NCAA Photos via Getty Images) — Can Rick Barnes lead Tennessee to its first ever Final Four? (Tyler Schank/NCAA Photos via Getty Images)

5. TENNESSEE (29-7)

How it got here: Defeated Wofford (15), UCLA (7)

Up next: Kentucky (3)

BetMGM odds: +1700

Outlook: Twenty-seven times in program history, Tennessee has made the NCAA tournament. Ten times, the Vols have reached the Sweet 16. Twice, they’ve advanced to an Elite Eight. Never once has this proud SEC program celebrated a Final Four. Tennessee ranks fourth on the list of programs with the most NCAA tournament appearances without a Final Four appearance. Only BYU (32), Xavier (30) and Missouri (29) have come up short more often than the Vols (27). This year’s team is Final Four-caliber, but the path is far from easy. Up next is a Kentucky team that has already beaten Tennessee twice. Looming in a potential regional final is Houston or the Purdue team that eliminated the Vols in the Elite Eight last season.

6. ALABAMA (27-8)

How it got here: Defeated Robert Morris (15), Saint Mary’s (7)

Up next: BYU (6)

BetMGM odds: +1500

Outlook: Alabama coach Nate Oats chuckled at the question. A reporter asked if it would be “refreshing” to face high-scoring, run-and-gun BYU in the Sweet 16 after having to deal with glacial-paced, smash-mouth Saint Mary’s in the round of 32. “I don't know that I want to say it's refreshing to go against somebody that plays like us,” Oats said, “because I think we're really tough to guard, and we've led the country in scoring the last two years. I don't think anybody is saying it's refreshing to play Alabama, whoever is running the defense for the other team.” The matchup between Alabama and BYU pits two top-10 offenses, both loaded with shooters.

7. MICHIGAN STATE (29-6)

How it got here: Defeated Bryant (15), New Mexico (10)

Up next: Ole Miss (6)

BetMGM odds: +2500

Outlook: Michigan State is a vintage Tom Izzo team that defends relentlessly and bludgeons opponents on the glass. Izzo unleashing freshman guard Jase Richardson over the second half of the season has helped the Spartans blossom from good to elite. To make it to San Antonio, Michigan State would have to buck history. A top-two NCAA tournament seed has never made a Final Four if they began the year outside the preseason AP Top 25, according to research from Ken Pomeroy. St. John’s and Michigan State were the top-two seeds that fit this criteria this year. Will the Spartans fare better than the Johnnies?

8. MICHIGAN (27-9)

How it got here: Defeated UC San Diego (12), Texas A&M (4)

Up next: Auburn (1)

BetMGM odds: +6600

Outlook: Only a year ago, Michigan went 8-24 and finished four games behind the Big Ten’s second-worst team. Enter Dusty May. The former FAU coach restocked Michigan’s roster via the transfer portal, figured out how to play two 7-footers together and built the Wolverines into a top-tier Big Ten team. Awarded a lesser seed than they deserved, the Wolverines responded as they have all season by finding a way. They overcame UC San Diego’s spirited upset bid. Then they rallied from a 10-point second-half deficit against Texas A&M. Roddy Gayle was the unlikely hero, emerging from a months-long shooting slump to score 26 points off the bench.

9. TEXAS TECH (27-8)

How it got here: Defeated UNC Wilmington (14), Drake (11)

Up next: Arkansas (10)

BetMGM: +2000

Outlook: Texas Tech hasn’t just made four Sweet 16s since 2018. The Red Raiders have done it under four different coaches. Grant McCasland became the latest this past weekend as Texas Tech overwhelmed UNC Wilmington and Drake to secure its place in the regional semifinals. The big concern moving forward for Texas Tech is the availability of guard Chance McMillian, the Red Raiders’ third-leading scorer and premier 3-point shooter. Texas Tech shot barely 25% from behind the arc in its first two NCAA tournament games. The Red Raiders won’t survive Arkansas’ thicket of long, athletic rim protectors in the Sweet 16 if they don’t knock down more jump shots.

SEATTLE, WASHINGTON - MARCH 23: Derik Queen #25 of the Maryland Terrapins gets showered after defeating Colorado State Rams during the second round of the 2025 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament held at Climate Pledge Arena on March 23, 2025 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Tyler McFarland/NCAA Photos via Getty Images) — Derik Queen gets showered after hitting a buzzer-beater to lift Maryland over Colorado State and into the Sweet 16. (Tyler McFarland/NCAA Photos via Getty Images)

10. MARYLAND (27-8)

How it got here: Defeated Grand Canyon (13), Colorado State (12)

Up next: Florida (1)

BetMGM odds: +3000

Outlook: With his team trailing by one and 3.7 seconds to play, Maryland coach Kevin Willard asked who felt comfortable taking the last shot. It was then that freshman Derik Queen stepped forward and said five words that will forever be part of Maryland basketball lore. The projected lottery pick told his coach, “Give me the MF ball.” The courage that Queen displayed turned out to be more than empty words. The skilled 6-foot-10 center caught an inbound pass at the top of the key, drove left and banked in a floater at an impossible angle as time expired. That shot lifted Maryland to a 72-71 victory over Colorado State and sent the Terrapins to their first Sweet 16 since 2016.

11. ARIZONA (24-12)

How it got here: Defeated Akron (13), Oregon (5)

Up next: Duke (1)

BetMGM odds: +5000

Outlook: Twenty-eight years ago, Simon said championship. Miles Simon and Mike Bibby led fourth-seeded Arizona on an improbable title run, toppling a trio of No. 1 seeds in the process. Since then, no team in the Western or Mountain time zones has won a national championship. UCLA went to three straight Final Fours from 2006-08. Gonzaga twice played for the national championship. Stanford, Arizona, Oregon and San Diego State have each come within a win or two as well. Could this Arizona team be the one to break that hex? Unlikely, but not impossible. The Wildcats are a No. 4 seed, after all, and could have to slay three No. 1 seeds to cut down nets in San Antonio.

12. KENTUCKY (24-11)

How it got here: Defeated Troy (14), Illinois (6)

Up next: Tennessee (2)

BetMGM odds: +5500

Outlook: It used to be that newly hired coaches needed at least three or four years to revitalize struggling programs. Now, the transfer portal has made it possible to overhaul a talent-bereft roster in a single offseason. Kentucky’s Mark Pope is one of four first-year coaches in this year’s Sweet 16, joining Arkansas’ John Calipari, BYU’s Kevin Young and Michigan’s Dusty May. Pope had it as difficult as any of those guys, inheriting a roster devoid of returning scholarship players. The collection of newcomers jelled quickly and now has Kentucky back in the Sweet 16 for the first time since 2019.

13. BYU (26-9)

How it got here: Defeated VCU (11), Wisconsin (3)

Up next: Alabama (2)

BetMGM odds: +6600

Outlook: Ejected from Saturday’s game for hitting Wisconsin’s Max Klesmit in the midsection as he tried to split a double team, BYU’s Dawson Baker had to watch the final three minutes from the locker room. He was powerless to help as Wisconsin trimmed a 10-point deficit to two and secured a chance to tie or win the game on its final possession. Back in the BYU locker room, athletic department officials had set up cameras to capture the Cougars’ potential postgame celebration. Those cameras ended up also capturing Baker’s emotional reaction to those tense final 13 seconds as BYU kept Wisconsin’s John Tonje from getting a clean look and clinched its first post-Jimmer Fredette Sweet 16 appearance.

When you set up the celly cam at halftime and end up capturing the sweetest moment 🥹 pic.twitter.com/j83SUyukbu
— BYU Men's Basketball (@BYUMBB) March 23, 2025

14. PURDUE (24-11)

How it got here: Defeated High Point (13), McNeese (12)

Up next: Houston (1)

BetMGM odds: +8000

Outlook: Purdue’s reward for surviving a pair of dangerous mid-majors is the chance to play a regional 70 miles from its campus. The Boilermakers will head to nearby Indianapolis to play a top-seeded Houston team that must have done something to anger the selection committee. For Purdue to take advantage of its home-court advantage, the Boilermakers are going to have to lean heavily on the Braden Smith-Trey Kaufman-Renn pick and roll and hope its role players are knocking down jump shots. Purdue’s offense has to be ultra-efficient because the teams in the Midwest Regional are going to exploit the Boilermakers’ lack of rim protection.

15. OLE MISS (24-11)

How it got here: Defeated North Carolina (11), Iowa State (3)

Up next: Michigan State (2)

BetMGM odds: +8000

Outlook: This year’s SEC continues to bolster its case as one of the strongest basketball conferences ever. The league is sending seven teams to the Sweet 16, breaking a record set by the ACC nine years ago. Ole Miss became the seventh SEC to advance to the Sweet 16 on Sunday night when the Rebels weathered a slow start against Iowa State and then unleashed a series of runs of their own. Five Ole Miss players scored in double figures, led by guard Sean Pedulla. For Ole Miss to go any farther, rebounding will be key. The Rebels are not big across their frontline, which could spell trouble against Michigan State.

16. ARKANSAS (22-13)

How it got here: Defeated Kansas (7), St. John’s (2)

Up next: Texas Tech (3)

BetMGM odd: +10000

Outlook: Who says this Sweet 16 is lacking Cinderella charm? You’re forgetting the plucky double-digit-seeded SEC team coached by John Calipari! Only two months ago, Arkansas was 0-5 in the SEC and firmly outside the NCAA tournament picture. Calipari’s debut season in Fayetteville appeared to be spiraling, especially with leading scorer Boogie Fland sidelined by a hand injury. Give Calipari credit for pushing the right buttons to restore belief among his players. Since then, Arkansas has won 12 of 17 culminating with Saturday’s stunning upset of the best St. John’s team in at least two decades.