March Madness 2025: Power ranking the 16 top contenders to win the women's NCAA tournament
In a season as deep as this, it was inevitable a handful of the top coaches would feel spurned by their NCAA tournament placement.
The top six to eight teams will likely cut down the nets next month in Tampa and most of them have already played each other this season. Conundrums abounded for the NCAA women’s basketball selection committee, which ultimately ordered the top four as UCLA, South Carolina, Texas and USC. The next major surprise was dropping Notre Dame to a No. 3 seed.
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Those decisions created tougher draws for some favorites. Should the bracket go chalk for the Final Four, Big Ten champs UCLA and USC would meet in one while SEC standouts South Carolina and Texas would in the other. The meetings would be the fourth for each side.
It’s highly probable one of those teams ends up cutting down the nets. A No. 1 seed has won the last 11 of 12 national championships and 32 of 42 overall.
(In parentheses: region and seed | record | NET rank)
1. South Carolina (Birmingham 2 No. 1 | 30-3 | 2)
The Gamecocks have their motivation. South Carolina lost out on the No. 1 overall seed to UCLA due to its head-to-head loss as well as its uncompetitive 29-point loss to UConn a month ago, NCAA women’s basketball committee chair Derita Dawkins said.
“I’m a little bit surprised, because we manufactured our schedule to put ourselves in position for the No. 1 seed,” head coach Dawn Staley said on ESPN’s bracketology broadcast. South Carolina is 16-3 in Quad 1 games, the most of any team and better than UCLA’s 13-2.
Staley said she would speak on it to the team about the seed, but winning a championship is hard enough without a chip on its shoulder. Either way, the South Carolina team of destruction came back out to play in the SEC championship, a harrowing note to every team in this bracket. The Gamecocks have title-winning experience, and Staley goes deep into her bag of All-Americans. Her two leading scorers, Joyce Edwards and MiLaysia Fulwiley, combine for 25.2 points per game off the bench.
Staley has never won a national title without an established center. In that absence, the development of SEC tournament MVP Chloe Kitts over the past few weeks is separating the Gamecocks, who lost veteran forward Ashlyn Watkins (ACL) in January. And those “hiccups” Staley described in the non-conference schedule that dropped them to the No. 2 overall seed? It prepared them for another title run.
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2. USC (Spokane 4 No. 1 | 28-3 | 6)
Lindsay Gottlieb is also frustrated at her team’s position as the final No. 1 seed. The Trojans are a No. 1 seed for the second consecutive year, and for the second consecutive time they have to go through UConn. The two could meet as early as the Elite Eight, a disappointingly early rematch. USC won the first one, though UConn's Azzi Fudd wasn't playing significant minutes at that point while recovering from injury. Both teams are better since that December game.
Meeting rival UCLA in the Final Four could go either way. But given the Big Ten championship game was the third game in three days, and UCLA really only played one good half of basketball, USC should be favored there. The Trojans' path isn’t littered with concerning competition like others on this list.
3. Connecticut (Spokane 4 No. 2 | 30-3 | 1)
Paige Bueckers has never missed a Final Four in her playing career and that was with lesser rosters. The 29-point win over South Carolina a month ago gave the Huskies a signature victory and should issue bracket-fillers confidence in writing Connecticut through to the Final Four.
A potential rematch with USC in the Elite Eight will be the toughest out. Sarah Strong has emerged as the season’s best freshman, creating a big three with Bueckers and Fudd. Jana El Alfy played some of the best basketball of her career against South Carolina and could spark a strong showing over a team like UCLA for a championship berth.
It feels like 2022 all over again.
4. Notre Dame (Birmingham 3 No. 3 | 26-5 | NET 5)
It was a womp-womp end to the regular season for Notre Dame, which lost its grasp on an outright ACC title by losing three of five and falling in the ACC semifinal. As a result, the Fighting Irish dropped to a No. 3 seed in what could be one of the toughest brackets.
Notre Dame could meet TCU, which bumped above them to a No. 2 seed, in the Sweet 16. The Irish lost, 76-68, during a Thanksgiving week tournament game against the Horned Frogs. Awaiting them as a No. 1 seed would be Texas, whom the Irish beat in overtime in December. They are also on the same side of the bracket as South Carolina.
That’s a lot working against them.
To their benefit, the Fighting Irish have had a week off since that loss to Duke in the conference tourney, and head coach Niele Ivey isn’t going to let her team enter the tournament the way it exited the ACC one. The guard duo of Hannah Hidalgo and Olivia Miles, with guard Sonia Citron helming the defense, will be ready for hosting the first weekend.
5. Texas (Birmingham 3 No. 1 | 31-3 | 3)
The Longhorns’ bracket is ruled by defense, and Texas could end up on top. Tennessee presses hard, subs constantly and prioritizes high-possession numbers. Ohio State likes to press and trap. Ultimately, the Longhorns do it best and sharpened their play with three matchups against reigning champion South Carolina. But the offense will be tested continuously.
Madison Booker needs to impact every game early and often for Texas to run through to the Final Four, particularly against Notre Dame if the Longhorns play the Irish. And then there’s a fourth game against South Carolina potentially in the semifinals.
6. UCLA (Spokane 1 No. 1 | 30-2 | 4)
As the No. 1 overall seed, UCLA should theoretically have the easiest path. It’s about if you trust the Bruins or not, and there’s reason not to believe. The Big Ten, while highly competitive in the middle and bottom, does not prepare teams the same way as the SEC and even the ACC. And the non-conference was highlighted by South Carolina (the result of which certainly gives reason to believe), Baylor (a potential Sweet 16 matchup) and Creighton (way down the NET rankings).
The bracket could get messy with Baylor, NC State, Florida State and LSU in Spokane 1.
7. NC State (Spokane 1 No. 2 | 26-6 | 16)
The Wolfpack crashed into the Final Four a year ago and could do it again. They’re peaking at the right time — though they need a fully healthy Aziaha James — and would benefit from an upset to UCLA earlier in the bracket. Even a matchup with UConn is advantageous to them, if they can get out of Spokane 1.
8. TCU (Birmingham 3 No. 2 | 31-3 | 8)
The Horned Frogs are finishing a special season that included the Big 12 regular and tournament titles. The combo of Hailey Van Lith and Sedona Prince is one of the best in the nation and will prove troublesome for opponents. The problem for TCU is its side of the bracket is stacked. The Horned Frogs have to get by Notre Dame, Texas and South Carolina to reach a national championship.
9. Baylor (Spokane 1 No. 4 | 27-7 | 15)
The Bears are one of the hottest teams heading into the tournament, as long as they’re not facing Big 12 foe TCU. Fortunately for them, that team is not in their bracket. But UCLA's Betts is, and she could cause similar problems. And that’s if Baylor can get to the Sweet 16.
10. Duke (Birmingham 2 No. 2 | 26-7 | 7)
This is another team peaking at the right time, but potentially groaning at the pathway. Duke could meet rival North Carolina in a third matchup, and then would draw South Carolina. The Blue Devils' defense is one of the elite at its best, but it hasn't delivered on the road this season.
11. Kentucky (Spokane 4 No. 4 | 22-7 | 18)
The Wildcats are back in the tournament for the first time since 2022 and are set up to make their deepest run since 2016, when they made the Sweet 16. Fifth-year senior guard Georgia Amoore is magic in March and Kenny Brooks, in his first year after building the Virginia Tech program to a Final Four contender, is one of the game’s best. The flip side is they’ll run into USC in the Elite Eight if it goes chalk. And if they win? UConn.
12. North Carolina (Birmingham 2 No. 3 | 27-7 | 20)
Oof, landing a No. 3 seed to host but also ending up in the same bracket as your rival is tough. The Tar Heels needed overtime to defeat Duke in January and lost by 15 in February. North Carolina is healthy again with fifth-year senior Alyssa Ustby in the fold, but landing in the bracket with Duke and South Carolina isn’t kind.
13. Oklahoma (Spokane 4 No. 3 | 25-7 | 13)
The Sooners haven’t reached the Sweet 16 since 2013. They’re in a cluster of potential Cinderellas. No. 6 Iowa is peaking at the right time with a veteran point guard and emerging freshmen. No. 11 Murray State is the nation’s best offense, averaging 87.9 points per game. And No. 14 Florida Gulf Coast, the Sooners' first-round game, is an annual tournament problem with sharpshooters and a strong 3-point game.
14. Florida State (Spokane 1 No. 6 | 23-8 | 25)
The Seminoles and leading scorer Ta’Niya Latson were already an underdog favorite. Then the bracket placed them in the same first-weekend bracket as LSU. The Tigers run almost exclusively through their big three, and two could be injured or less than 100% heading into the first weekend.
15. LSU (Spokane 1 No. 3 | 28-5 | 10)
The Tigers go how their big three of Flau’jae Johnson, Aneesah Morrow and Mikaylah Williams go, and that’s up in the air with injuries to Johnson and Morrow. Head coach Kim Mulkey said both will be back for the tournament, but other coaches have said similar things before and waited until the eve of the first game to spill the truth.
16. Maryland (Birmingham 2 No. 4 | 23-7 | 28)
Maryland pulling a No. 4 seed was a surprise. The last time the committee saw it, a young Michigan team blew out the Terps in the Big Ten quarterfinals. The Terps began the year as a title favorite, but injuries have limited their ceiling. So, too, has being shoved in a bracket with South Carolina.
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