Why it’s division or bust for Cincinnati Reds in 2025 playoff quest

Anybody who watched how swiftly and boldly the Cincinnati Reds responded to last year’s competitive face-plant knows what the Reds have in mind as they take the field Thursday for their 2025 season opener.

Playoffs or bust!

Woo-hoo!

Look who's coming to the party? Juan Soto, laughing with the Reds' Elly De La Cruz last July at Yankee Stadium, led another exodus of talent moving from the American League to the National League when he signed a $765 million deal as a free agent with the New York Mets in December.

Hall of Fame-bound Terry Francona’s on board for pennant fever with a third franchise in his decorated career!

Yep. All of the above. The Reds front office added starting pitching (Brady Singer), relief pitching (Taylor Rogers, Scott Barlow) and playoff-veteran hitters (Gavin Lux, Jose Trevino, Austin Hays) to a roster that already returned budding superstars in Elly De La Cruz and Hunter Greene, along with the return from injury of their best player from 2023 (Matt McLain).

So who’s going to stand in their way?

Well, that’s the thing.

National League did nothing but get better

Almost every good team in the National League got better since last year, including significant improvement among some who barely missed the playoffs.

So in the National League this year, that leaves one, narrow path to October for the Reds – straight up the northern Midwestern gut of the league.

Which turns the playoff-or-bust mantra into a most specific NL Central or Bust!

No?

The league already demonstrably stronger than the other one got even more muscular over the winter, especially on the coasts, where the mega-spending Mets and Dodgers made enormous free agent splashes – including the $765 million Juan Soto jumping from the Yankees to the Mets – where the Arizona Diamondbacks added the best free agent pitcher (Corbin Burnes) and traded for a slugging first baseman (Josh Naylor) from the AL, where playoff team San Diego added free agent pitcher Nick Pivetta from the AL, where the 80-win Giants added future Hall of Fame Justin Verlander from the AL (plus $182 million shortstop Willy Adames from the Brewers) and where even the start-studded Braves got better just by becoming healthier (with MVP Ronald Acuna Jr. and All-Star starter Spencer Strider due back from injuries).

Star shortstop Willy Adames will no longer be tormenting the Reds as a member of the Milwaukee Brewers, but he stayed in National League, joining future Hall of Fame pitcher Justin Verlander with the San Francisco Giants.

Whew.

“It keeps getting better,” said Chicago Cubs president Jed Hoyer, who added his own star from the AL this winter when he acquired outfielder Kyle Tucker in a trade from the Houston Astros. “People in the American League say that to me, like, ‘My God, the good players keep on going to the National League, and it’s more and more competitive.’

Three of Baseball's top payrolls are in the NL

“Some of it is simply payroll-based,” Hoyer added. “You’ve got four $300 million payrolls, and three are in the National League.”

The Dodgers, Mets and Philadelphia Phillies are projected to field teams worth more than $1 billion in combined salaries with the top three payrolls in MLB.

Even the big-spending American League Yankees – who did the most conspicuous adding in the American League — are fourth in projected payroll this year.

Who’s the Evil Empire now?

Not to mention the fact that the only two $700 million players in history joined the NL mix via free agency the past two offseasons in Shohei Ohtani (Angels to Dodgers) and Soto.

“I’m aware,” Hoyer said.

Not that the Reds are helpless to compete. They have some of the best young talent in the game and a manager many consider the best in the game.

But after winning just 77 games last year, amassing wins in the National League for the Reds might have gotten a lot tougher, especially outside the NL Central.

“That’s fair,” Reds general manager Brad Meador said.

But it also doesn’t change anything about the way the playoff-minded Reds think about their season or how they plan to reach October, Meador added.

Is winning NL Central only path to playoffs for Reds?

NL Central or bust?

“That’s the goal anyway,” Meador said. “Our goal is to win the division.”

To that end, rival evaluators in Arizona this spring are split on whether the Cubs or Reds are the division favorites, with defending-champ Milwaukee getting some attention in the conversation despite losing Adames and closer Devin Williams (in a trade to the Yankees).

Some talent evaluators in Arizona during spring training believe the Reds have the young talent, such as ace Hunter Greene, to win the National League Central. Greene was 9-5 with a 2.75 ERA in 26 starts last season.

And few see much of a chance for a second-place team out of the Central stacking up with any of the teams out east or west for a wild-card berth. Not with how historically strong the National League looks.

“With that said, I don’t think it’s division or bust,” Reds president Nick Krall said. “You look at the American League Central. They got three teams in last year. So you’ve just got to go out and win the games.”

Krall may not be wrong. But he's also leaving out an important advantage for those AL Central playoff qualifiers. That division also included the team that set the major-league record for losses in a season, the Chicago White Sox – which meant a combined plus-11 in wins and losses (30-9) for Cleveland, Detroit and Kansas City against only the White Sox.

The Royals’ 12-1 mark against Chicago was the difference between a losing record and earning the last wild-card spot in the American League.

The point isn’t that the Reds can’t finish second and still win enough games for a wild-card spot. It’s that there’s no favorable path to it. There’s no White Sox in this league.

“You look around at the rosters, and there are no series where you can kind of just mosey in and play and expect to win," says Gavin Lux, who was a member of the Dodgers’ juggernaut roster the past six seasons.

Reds' Gavin Lux knows what playoff teams look like

“It’s kind of how the AL was in the early 2000s,” said newly acquired Reds infielder-outfielder Gavin Lux, who should know as a member of the Dodgers’ juggernaut roster the past six seasons. “You look around at the rosters, and there are no series where you can kind of just mosey in and play and expect to win. There are going to be a lot of dogfights.”

Lux has said since getting his first looks at new teammates this spring that he expects a playoff run.

And for a franchise that hasn’t earned a full-season playoff berth in 12 years or won a postseason series in 30, making the tournament would amount to a breakout success story for Francona’s young core – never mind if they actually won a round or two.

Now they have to find the wins to get there by surviving a National League that hasn’t looked this strong and talented, top to bottom, in maybe 40 or 50 years.

Even everybody’s pick to finish last in the NL East, the Miami Marlins, have Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara back from injury and looking strong this spring. Everybody’s pick to finish last in the NL West, the Colorado Rockies, have some good young hitters.

And some evaluators say the rebuilding Washington Nationals will surprise this year.

It’s also not like this National League rise in power is news. The Dodgers have set the pace over the past decade, followed in recent years by Steven Cohen’s purchase of the Mets and aggressive pursuit of top players and championships.

“I think it was pretty good last year, honestly,” said Arizona Diamondbacks general manager Mike Hazen, whose club reached the World Series from the wild-card position in 2023, then got better in 2024 and missed the playoffs on three-way tiebreaker criteria that sent the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves to the postseason.

“That’s never happened before,” Hazen said.

Last year’s Diamondbacks had a better record than three of the six AL playoff teams with an 89-win season that would have been good enough to win the AL West.

National League flaunted its power in interleague play

In fact, the National League had nine teams with winning records and a 10th that won 80 games.

The NL’s winning percentage against the AL in interleague play was .538. That’s the equivalent of an 87-win season for a team — four games better than either of last year’s Cubs or Cardinals, the teams that tied for second in the NL Central in 2024.

“We didn’t make it and we won five more games than we did the year before,” Hazen said. “So I think the National League is hyper competitive and is going to continue to be so. Even the teams that are up and coming and improving in the National League are really good ballclubs that have a lot of talent on them.

“There’s no real days off in the National League,” he said. “It’s great for the game. And it’s going to make it tough.”

That’s part of what compelled DBacks ownership and Hazen to pay Burnes $210 million for the next six seasons.

Hazen rattled off deep, improved clubs behind the mega-spending usual suspects, including a Braves team that won the 2021 World Series and the 2023 NL East, along with the improved Giants and Reds.

“The Brewers are always good,” he added. “I think the Nats are going to be deeper, honestly.”

The Nationals took a step forward last year and have exceptional young talent starting to break through.

“Those are sometimes the wild-card games,” Hazen said, “that you can fall into a trap and take for granted because they’re not where they want to be. But I think they’re deep and young and dynamic. That makes it tough.

“But I think you’re better suited playing in the playoffs when you have to go through that schedule.”

It hasn’t seemed to do much for the teams in the NL Central in recent years as the teams on the coast ramped up spending and amassing superstars. Or the smaller market teams in the AL Central for that matter.

The last time a team from either Central division played in the World Series, two did, in the epic 7-gamer of 2016 between the Cubs and Cleveland. And Francona was managing one of them.

“There’s a lot of talk about our ballclub,” said Los Angeles Dodgers manager Dave Roberts, whose club won the World Series last fall, then added two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell for $182 million and won the free agent sweepstakes for Japanese star pitcher Roki Sasaki.

“But baseball still comes down to series,” he said. “And I think there’s a lot of talented teams in the National League, absolutely.”

Small-budget teams have clear target in Dodgers

He also knows a lot of the spending and aggressive postures by NL rivals – especially in the was in direct response to the juggernaut Dodgers.

“It’s good. It’s great for the fans,” Roberts said. “I think it speaks to where the game is at, the fan interest.”

So what are all those payroll-poor teams in the middle of the country supposed to do about it?

The Cubs showed some fiscal restraint this offseason. They added Kyle Tucker and his $16.7 million salary from the Houston Astros but shed traded Cody Bellinger and his $27 million salary to the Yankees.

Even the NL Central’s big-market Cubs had their luxury-tax-level payroll tightened by ownership to the degree that Hoyer’s front office didn’t come close to getting aggressive in free agency and, in fact, was only able to pursue the trade for Tucker (and his $16.5 million salary) after shedding $27 million Cody Bellinger in a trade with the Yankees.

The Cubs added the best player in the division after winning 83 games but spent the rest of the winter adding around the edges of the roster. The Reds added perhaps the best manager in the game, traded Jonathan India for Singer, then did their own set of improvements at the margins.

No Burnes, Snell, Soto, Sasaki or Verlander has been spotted on this set of middle-America rosters. Heck, there’s not even an Adames to be seen after the Brewers’ All-Star shortstop skipped town for that big deal with the Giants out west.

If the Cubs and Reds are the favorites in the Central, does either one stack up against any of the powers on the coasts as a legitimate wild-card threat?

“There isn’t a wild-card team in that division,” said one major league evaluator.

Las Vegas sports books say the same thing.

NL Central teams stand by the quality of the division

Brewers general manager Matt Arnold, who knows something about beating odds after losing key players, isn’t so sure.

“I think it’s a sneaky-tough division, I really do,” said Arnold, whose club repeated as division champs after trading away Burnes before last season. “The Cubs are always going to be tough. I would never sleep on the Cardinals. I think the Pirates are getting better, no question. And the Reds are getting better.

“It’s an underrated division.”

Maybe because it’s under-financed compared to the collective dollar-power in the other divisions. And because that means it’s undermanned when it comes to established star power.

And because of that, it means the Central focus for the likes of the Cubs, Reds and Brewers is on the division title. Or bust.

“I wouldn’t say that at all,” Hoyer said, “but I do think the National League is incredibly challenging. You’ve got a lot of teams really spending to fortify. And with that spending you’re lessening your uncertainty, so to speak; you’re mitigating your risk. I don’t know if those teams have pushed their upside as they’ve really fortified their downside.”

That’s a huge competitive advantage in a sports like baseball with a game-a-day, six-month schedule.

“It’s just created a way more competitive league than even five years ago when I first came up,” said Lux, who remembers an NL West that amounted to the Dodgers and four teams buried by the Dodgers.

Lux is the only guy in the Reds clubhouse who has never been on a big-league team that missed the playoffs.

So when he talks about the importance of taking care of business in the Central this season in the context of the supercharged National League, he might be worth listening to.

“You’ve still got to go out and try to win every single game and play every single game like it’s a playoff game,” Lux said. “But you do have to win these games especially in the division.”

This article originally appeared on Cincinnati Enquirer: Why it’s division or bust for Cincinnati Reds in 2025 playoff quest

Topics

Can past MLB postseason experience be the difference for the 2025 Cincinnati Reds?

During this past offseason, Cincinnati more than doubled the amount of combined games worth of playoff experienced on its roster.
Yahoo Sports - 1d
Why Cincinnati Reds' Graham Ashcraft wants closer role and why Reds believe he can do it

"He's certainly got the demeanor. He's got the stuff," Cincinnati Reds pitching coach Derek Johnson said of Graham Ashcraft's closer qualifications.
Yahoo Sports - 4d
Why Cincinnati Reds' Alexis Diaz 'not thinking about' closer status

Cincinnati Reds right-hander Alexis Diaz, a 2023 All-Star closer, threw half his pitches Friday for balls as he continues work on command issues.
Yahoo Sports - 3d
Why Cincinnati Reds catcher Tyler Stephenson calls oblique diagnosis ‘best-cast scenario’

Cincinnati Reds catcher Tyler Stephenson led MLB in games caught last season and his breakout offensive season included 19 home runs and 66 RBI.
Yahoo Sports - Mar. 14
Cincinnati Reds spring training: Reds rout Guardians to close out 2025 camp

Nick Lodolo and Elly De La Cruz closed out strong spring trainings Sunday to lead the Reds to victory in the team's 2025 Cactus League finale.
Yahoo Sports - 1d
Chris Perkins: Playoffs or bust: Dolphins’ 2025 season will show what they’ve learned previous three years

Let’s establish a fair and logical baseline expectation for the 2025 Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins should be a playoff team in 2025. In the big picture, you can’t have this much talent and miss the ...
Yahoo Sports - 3d
Why the moon will be shades of red, orange and yellow tonight

There's an opportunity tonight to catch the March 2025 "Blood Moon," a phenomenon that colors the full moon in shades of red, orange and yellow during a total lunar eclipse.
CBS News - Mar. 13
Cincinnati Reds spring training: Saturday's lineup vs. San Diego Padres

Andrew Abbott and Carson Spiers are expected to pitch bulk innings for the Cincinnati Reds Saturday vs. the Padres. Spiers is the Reds' No. 5 starter.
Yahoo Sports - 2d
Cincinnati Reds spring training: Saturday's lineup vs. Kansas City Royals

Austin Wynns, the Cincinnati Reds' likely backup catcher to open the season with Tyler Stephenson on the IL, is in Saturday's lineup vs. the Royals.
Yahoo Sports - Mar. 15
Cincinnati Reds spring training: Sunday's lineup vs. Seattle Mariners

Gavin Lux gets another start at third base for the Cincinnati Reds Sunday as they take on the Seattle Mariners in Cactus League play.
Yahoo Sports - Mar. 16
Red Bull's Lawson predicament is a mess of its own making

Red Bull had a Sergio Pérez replacement in house. Instead, it chose Liam Lawson, who's underwhelmed in 2025.
ESPN - 1d
Cincinnati Reds spring training: Reds drop fifth straight Cactus League decision

Cincinnati Reds ace Hunter Greene pitched well, and closer Alexis Diaz didn't in the Reds' loss to the Kansas City Royals Saturday.
Yahoo Sports - Mar. 15
The NBA's Southeast Division is struggling. There's still hope for the Hawks, Magic and Heat

This fall will mark the 10th anniversary of the NBA changing its playoff rules and not guaranteeing a division champion a top-four seed regardless of their record
ABC News - Mar. 11
2025 WHL Playoffs Preview: 1) Everett Silvertips Versus 8) Seattle Thunderbirds

After a fierce season series, the Everett Silvertips and Seattle Thunderbirds will meet in the first round of the 2025 WHL Playoffs. These two division rivals last met in the playoffs back in 2018, ...
Yahoo Sports - 23h
Cincinnati Reds spring training: Reds lose to Seattle Mariners, drop 6th straight

Cincinnati Reds starter Brady Singer pitched well for 4 2/3 innings in Sunday's spring training loss to the Seattle Mariners.
Yahoo Sports - Mar. 16
Cincinnati Reds spring training: Thursday's lineup vs. Kansas City Royals

The Cincinnati Reds' Opening Day top four are in Thursday's spring lineup vs. the Royals: TJ Friedl, Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz, Austin Hays.
Yahoo Sports - 4d
Capitals Can Clinch A Playoff Spot Thursday Against The Flyers; Here's How

WASHINGTON — After defeating the Detroit Red Wings 4-1 on Tuesday, the Washington Capitals are one step closer to punching their ticket to the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Yahoo Sports - 6d
Cincinnati Reds spring training: Friday's lineups vs. Seattle Mariners, Chicago White Sox

Hunter Greene and Brady Singer make their final starts of the spring for the Cincinnati Reds before they open the season Thursday against the Giants.
Yahoo Sports - 3d
'Not having a hit-off': Final roster call looms for Cincinnati Reds manager Terry Francona

Jacob Hurtubise, Blake Dunn and Stuart Fairchild are battling for the Cincinnati Reds' final two roster spots on the hitting side.
Yahoo Sports - 2d
Cincinnati Reds spring training: Reds drop pair of games; Jose Trevino exits with injury

The Cincinnati Reds were swept in a pair of split-squad spring training games Friday. Catcher Jose Trevino exited after being hit on hand by foul tip.
Yahoo Sports - Mar. 14
Future Hall of Famer Terry Francona 'born again' as Cincinnati Reds manager

Cincinnati hired a two-time World Series winner to lead a promising young team.
Yahoo Sports - Mar. 17
These 5 teams could bust Alabama basketball's bracket, halt NCAA Tournament title run

With a relatively forgiving playoff path compared to others around the country, here are the top candidates out to bust Alabama basketball's bracket.
Yahoo Sports - Mar. 17
Cincinnati Reds LHP Andrew Abbott to open on injured list; Carson Spiers 5th starter

After announcing Andrew Abbott will open on the IL and sending Lyon Richardson to the minors, the Cincinnati Reds have 15 healthy pitchers for 13 spots.
Yahoo Sports - 4d
Fantasy Baseball Busts 2.0: Shohei Ohtani's pitching side may be a source of Fantasy frustration

Plus, find out why Chris Towers has added Garrett Crochet to his latest busts list
CBS Sports - Mar. 12
Lions propose playoff seeding without regard to division championship

The current structure of the NFL often results in teams with lesser records hosting playoff games, because every division champion is guaranteed one of the top four spots on the conference's ...
Yahoo Sports - 6d
Fantasy Baseball Rankings 2025: Busts from proven MLB simulation that predicted Jordan Montgomery's struggles

SportsLine simulated the entire MLB season and identified 2025 Fantasy baseball busts that won't live up to their ADP
CBS Sports - 3h
2025 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Sleepers, breakouts, busts via computer that predicted Rutschman's struggles

SportsLine simulated the entire MLB season 10,000 times and identified 2025 Fantasy baseball sleepers, breakout and busts
CBS Sports - 2h
Swift Current Broncos Secure Final Playoff Spot In The Eastern Conference

The Swift Current Broncos are headed to the 2025 WHL Playoffs. Swift Current claimed the final spot in the Eastern Conference on Friday thanks to Red Deer's overtime loss to the Prince Albert ...
Yahoo Sports - Mar. 15
Cincinnati Reds spring training: final Cactus League lineup Sunday vs. Guardians

TJ Friedl's leading off, newcomers Austin Hays and Gavin Lux batting 4-5 in Cincinnati Reds' final spring training lineup before Thursday's opener.
Yahoo Sports - 2d
AL East division preview: Lineups, rotations and one question to watch for each team ahead of 2025 season

Can the Yankees repeat? Did the Red Sox do enough? Everything to know about the AL East for 2025
CBS Sports - 6d
Nine potential busts to avoid in 2025

Who does Tristan H. Cockcroft think will underachieve in 2025? We have nine names to steer clear of when drafting your rosters.
ESPN - 5d
Check out these five storylines to watch in Cincinnati tennis 2025

Read up on some storylines to watch early in this tennis season around Cincinnati.
Yahoo Sports - 4d
Big 12 back to divisions? League mulls College Football Playoff AQ options with play-in games at forefront

With CFP changes on the horizon, the Big 12 is considering its options to find its place
CBS Sports - Mar. 14
Detroit Red Wings see their playoff chase boosted by Petr Mrázek, Lucas Raymond

Petr Mrázek and Lucas Raymond have the Detroit Red Wings confident in their playoff chase going into the final 15 games.
Yahoo Sports - Mar. 17
Cincinnati Bearcats football features young defenders who could blossom in 2025

Several key members of the Cincinnati Bearcats football defense played as freshmen in 2024. That could impact UC's success this coming season.
Yahoo Sports - 4d
2025 Fantasy Baseball Draft Prep: Cam Smith headlines best deep sleepers on every MLB roster

Plus, why Red Sox's Marcelo Mayer is deserving of honorable mention status
CBS Sports - Mar. 15
NHL playoff watch: Will the Oilers win the Pacific Division crown?

The race against the Golden Knights for the No. 1 seed is not over yet. Plus, full playoff projections, draft lottery standings, more.
ESPN - 6d
The Lions’ proposed NFL playoff change would make divisions kind of pointless

This NFL playoff change proposed by the Lions makes logical sense, but would only serve to ultimately make the regular season meaningless.
Yahoo Sports - 5d
Playoff standings: Resetting the postseason races after the trade deadline

Playoff spots, division titles and seeds are up for grabs until April 17.
ESPN - Mar. 10