ESPN Analytics shared an interesting tool this week, geared towards setting expectations for the 2025 NFL draft. They've run a ton of simulations to predict which prospects will be available at different points in this year's draft class, and their work in 2024 suggests they have a good pulse for which players will be on the board when the New Orleans Saints are on the clock. I mean, who could have predicted the Atlanta Falcons were going to pick Michael Penix Jr.?
There's a lot to process here, but today we're focusing on ESPN's predictions for the players least likely to be available when the Saints make their pick -- those with 50% or worse odds of making it to the No. 9 pick. It doesn't mean they'll have been drafted before New Orleans just because they're on this eight-man list, but it does reflect how low the team's chances are of having each player fall to them:
- QB Cam Ward, Miami: 0%
- OLB Abdul Carter, Penn State: 0%
- WR/CB Travis Hunter, Colorado: 0%
- DT Mason Graham, Michigan: 3%
- OLB Jalon Walker, Georgia: 6%
- QB Shedeur Sanders, Colorado: 23%
- WR Tetairoa McMillan, Arizona: 35%
- OT Armand Membou, Missouri: 36%
There aren't too many surprises here. Most mock drafts anticipate Ward, Carter, and Hunter going in the top five picks, with Sanders likely joining them. It is a little jarring to see Graham and Walker projected to go so high given how many mock drafts have had the Saints picking them, but clearly they're seen as special talents.
The two prospects likeliest in this bunch to make it to No. 9 are McMillan and Membou, who could be the first receiver and offensive lineman drafted. Would the Saints pick either of them? Maybe so. Membou could be an upgrade over Trevor Penning at right tackle. McMillan would add a lot to the receiving corps as a big body. But the numbers suggest it's likelier than not that either player is still on the board.
So which players could still be available if these eight are snapped up? Who would be the best player available? That's a topic for another day, but this does give us an idea of who we shouldn't count on making it to No. 9.
This article originally appeared on Saints Wire: 2025 NFL draft: ESPN predicts which players won't make it to Saints
