We're just days away from the start of the NFL draft, and the next week will feature mock draft projections, expert predictions, and fans clamoring to guess who their favorite teams will select.
ESPN's Draft Day Predictor tool does a great job of estimating the percent chance prospects will be available at each pick.
Here is a behind-the-scenes peek at how ESPN analytics accomplishes that:
“The underlying model is based on prospect grades from Scouts Inc., expert mock drafts, team needs, and a few other factors. The Predictor considers these factors in proportion to how accurate they have been in the past.”
From the 15th-most likely selection down to the highest percentage of chances, the numbers tell us who could be available when Philadelphia is on the clock.
Edge Rusher Donovan Ezeiruaku
Chances taken: 6.5%
The Eagles have to replace edge rusher Josh Sweat, who signed with the Cardinals after getting 2.5 sacks in Super Bowl LIX. Ezeiruaku is a bit undersized (6-3, 248 pounds) but uses his 34-inch arms and elite first-step speed to get around the edge and under the hands of offensive tackles. He was highly productive this past season, with 80 tackles and 16.5 sacks, the second-best mark in the FBS.
CB Maxwell Hairston
Chances taken: 6.4%
During his time at Kentucky, Hairston played in 32 career games with 20 starts. He logged 89 tackles, 2.5 tackles for loss, and one sack. Added 10 pass breakups, six interceptions, and three forced fumbles
OL Grey Zabel
Chances taken: 5.9%
The Eagles build through the trenches, and Zabel is rising up draft boards and can flourish at three different positions.
DE James Pearce Jr.
Chances taken: 5.7%
The 6-foot-5, 243-pound Pearce led Tennessee in sacks (7.5), tackles for loss (13), and quarterback hurries (10), while adding a forced fumble and a fumble recovery in 2024. Pearce earned first-team All-SEC honors and was a semifinalist for the Bednarik, Lombardi, and Walter Camp Player of the Year awards. He also earned first-team All-SEC honors in 2023, when he had 10 sacks, 14.5 tackles for loss, 16 quarterback hurries, an interception return for a touchdown and two forced fumbles.
DT Walter Nolen
Chances taken: 5.3%
Philadelphia lost Milton Williams in free agency and has Jordan Davis entering the final year of his rookie deal with a decision about his fifth-year option looming. Nolen can be a game-wrecker on the interior and is athletic enough to be a viable and versatile pass rusher for the Eagles and Vic Fangio.
The 6-foot-3, 305-pound ...
