The Chicago Bears are ready to maximize Caleb Williams' immense potential. Their hire of offensive genius Ben Johnson as their head coach this past January, as well as an aggressive approach to rebuilding their offensive line in free agency, all but confirms Chicago's immense investment in its bright, young quarterback.
But before we play any real games, it's worth wondering what Johnson's designs are for his Bears' offense. That, of course, will extend to how he coaches and works with Williams, too.
At a press conference during the NFL owners' meetings on Tuesday, Johnson shared a shrewd, analytical goal that perhaps not every head coach always considers. He wants to maximize the Bears' passing Expected Points Added (EPA) above all else because the Bears' analytics team has determined it is the biggest underlying statistical factor in NFL wins and losses. Yes, even over the hallowed turnover margin (which still matters, but in a different way).
Johnson's short tangent about this distinction is worth a listen:
This is extremely important as Ben Johnson takes over as #Bears head coach: passing game EPA now matters more than turnover margin 🔊 pic.twitter.com/dmAtQZLTy2
— Adam Hoge (@AdamHoge) April 1, 2025
If we just look at the results of the 2024 NFL season, Johnson's assessment here tracks.
According to RBDSM.com's data on the matter, here were the eight best NFL in dropback EPA last season:
- Baltimore Ravens
- Buffalo Bills
- Detroit Lions
- Washington Commanders
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Cincinnati Bengals
- Green Bay Packers
- Philadelphia Eagles
For posterity, that is seven playoff teams, five squads with at least 12 wins, and the eventual Super Bowl champion Eagles. Only the Bengals among that group failed to qualify for the postseason or even reach double-digit victories (and that was more related to how they couldn't stop anyone on defense). The correlation that Johnson alludes to seems quite clear.
Do you know what unsurprisingly drags down passing EPA? Negative plays like interceptions, fumbles, and sacks. See, the turnovers are still accounted for in a major fashion! Do you know what positively inflates passing EPA? Easy run-after-catch opportunities. Sound completion percentage. Living to fight for another down.
Football writer Nate Tice compiled the total EPA lost on sacks and interceptions for NFL teams over the last five seasons, and it's pretty eye-opening:
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