Bears head coach Ben Johnson built one of the league's best offenses during his time as the Lions' offensive coordinator and he will be trying to do something similar in Chicago this year.
During his media session from the league meetings in Palm Beach on Tuesday, Johnson touched on one area he'll be emphasizing as he tries to make that happen. Expected points is a metric that quantifies plays based on down, distance and field position and is tied to expected points added, which analyzes how well teams do based on that expectation.
A 15-yard completion on first-and-10 from your own 35 would result in a positive number, for example, and Johnson highlighted the correlation between having a higher expected points added (EPA) in the passing game and winning games.
"The EPA in the passing game is really one of the most critical factors in determining wins and losses right now," Johnson said, via the team's website. "That's probably changed over the last five years or so. I would have said five years ago turnovers, takeaways, that was No. 1. From what I understand now, EPA for the passing game has now surpassed that. Whatever team has the higher passing game EPA at the end of the game, they generally win that game over 80 percent of the time. It's a huge stat. That's where we look to: how do we help inflate that number? Higher completion percentage, more run after the catch opportunities. That's not to say we're not going to take our shots down the field and look for big explosive plays, chunks or touchdowns that way. There's a lot of ways we can get that done."
Sacks are a killer to EPA in the passing game and cutting down on them is a must after Caleb Williams was dropped a league-high 68 times during his rookie season. Johnson said "it takes a village" to bring that number down and it's sure to remain a point of emphasis throught their preparations for the 2025 season.
