3 theories that may explain the lack of men's March Madness upsets
The end of March has been noticeably lacking some madness this year.
Not only has this men's NCAA tournament featured one of the chalkiest brackets in years, it's the first time since 2017 that no seed lower than No. 12 has advanced to the Round of 32. If there is a Cinderella out there, it's going to be a team fans are pretty familiar with already.
Which has left a lot of people watching the tournament wondering: What gives? Where did all the upsets go?
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There may not be a single definitive answer out there, but there are plenty of theories that help explain why the men's bracket doesn't feel as unpredictable this year. While not a definitive list, these are certainly worth taking consideration.
1. The transfer portal and NIL hurt smaller programs
This will undoubtedly be an argument that gets run into the ground after this week. The theory goes that because top programs have the money and means to pilfer talent from the transfer portal, mid-majors that would normally fit the Cinderella roll no longer stand a chance.
interesting 1-4 seeds in tournament went 16-0 with average margin of victory by 23 points. nil and the portal are hurting mid-majors in search of upsets over power conference teams. takes a lot of fun out of first week.
— Dick Weiss (@HoopsWeiss) March 22, 2025
There's probably some degree of truth here. No. 3 seed Kentucky, for instance, recruited starters Lamont Butler from San Diego State and Koby Brea from Dayton. No. 2 seed Alabama grabbed star guard Chris Youngblood from South Florida. No. 5 Michigan took Danny Wolf from Yale and Vladislav Goldin from Florida Atlantic.
Ole Miss, Tennessee and Texas Tech also relied heavily on transfers from mid-majors to boost their rosters.
Continuity is typically a huge part of mid-major success in March. When all the top players (and coaches) are leaving as soon as they can, it's much more difficult to put together a veteran lineup with chemistry that can overcome a more talented opponent.
On the other hand, there has never been an era in college athletics where the top programs didn't have a mighty upper-hand over mid-tier schools. The NCAA tournament has always been a great equalizer, but let's not pretend the majority of the best talent wasn't always going to brand name schools year after year.
2. Lower seeds really struggled to hit 3-pointers
When No. 13 seed Furman knocked off No. 4 Virginia in 2023, the Paladins hit 10 three-pointers two UVA's two. No. 14 seed Oakland hit 15 in last year's upset of No. 3 Kentucky. No. 15 Oral Roberts knocked down 11 to just five by No. 2 Ohio State when the Golden Eagles stunned the Buckeyes in 2021.
This year the shots just weren't falling for the potential Cinderellas.
It’s popular to claim the lack of upsets this year is because of NIL, but it seems to me the main reason there haven’t been many this year is none of the MM teams made threes.
— Kevin Sweeney (@CBB_Central) March 22, 2025
10 12-16 seeds played Friday. Only one shot over 30% from three: Colorado State, the lone winner.
NINE of the 20 12+ seeds were top-100 three point shooting teams this year by percentage, all shooting at least 35% from deep on the year. Only three of those nine shot 30+% from deep in their R64 game. These were good shooting teams that just… didn’t make shots.
— Kevin Sweeney (@CBB_Central) March 22, 2025
As much as there may be some big picture factors at play in the first round results this week, you won't win any games in college basketball these days if you can't hit from beyond the arc. Call it nerves or tight rims or something else, but mid-majors that had been reliable all year long suddenly couldn't buy a three-pointer when they needed it most.
3. The top teams really are that much better this year
Ok this might a bit out there, but here goes: what if the elite teams are actually...elite?
Everything mentioned above certainly plays a part here, but consider the top teams just flat out took care of business and it wasn't even close. Schools like Duke, Florida, Auburn and Michigan State were barely tested in their opening matchups.
An average margin of victory of 22.7 from the top seeds is just something we don't ever see in this tournament. There were 32 games in the first round, and in all but two of them, the team leading at halftime won the game. Only seven of those games featured a second-half lead change.
The upside of all this is that it should make for a much more entertaining tournament moving forward. As the best of the best continue to march toward the Final Four, some incredible matchups loom. If we can't have a chaotic bracket this year, fans might as well embrace the fact the teams who delivered all season long are on a collision course for the national championship.
This article originally appeared on For The Win: 3 theories that may explain the lack of men's March Madness upsets
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