March Madness upset picks: What teams could surprise in Saturday men's second-round games
So far, March hasn’t had a whole lot of its trademark madness.
Though the 2025 NCAA men’s basketball tournament got off to a rousing start — with a full-court pass leading to a last-second, game-winning layup for Alabama State over Saint Francis — the first round of the event gave fans across the country little in the way of close games, thrilling finishes and stunning upsets.
Only four of the opening 32 games were decided by three points or fewer and one of those, McNeese’s 69-67 win over Clemson, was only that close because of a garbage-time basket as the clock expired. A handful of teams had a chance at game-tying shots in the final seconds — UC San Diego against Michigan, Vanderbilt against Saint Mary’s and Mississippi State against Baylor — but none of them were able to convert those opportunities.
Most of all, though, there were precious few upsets.
The top four seeds all advanced to the second round of the tournament for just the second time since 2008. Those games weren’t particularly close, either, with an average margin of victory of 22.7 points per contest. Only three teams won games in which they were seeded at least five spots lower than their opponent – and in one of those matchups, No. 12 seed Colorado State over No. 5 seed Memphis, the lower seed was actually the favorite.
Were some of the thrills that were so noticeably absent for the tournament’s first round make a long-awaited appearance in the second round?
Here’s a look at some potential upsets for Saturday’s slate of NCAA Tournament second-round games:
Men's March Madness second round upset picks
These upset picks do not include games in which there’s a seed difference of fewer than four.
No. 11 Drake over No. 3 Texas Tech
Coach Ben McCollum, guard Bennett Stirtz and the Bulldogs had their way with Missouri, leading the Tigers virtually from the opening tip to the final buzzer in a 67-57 victory on Thursday.
All-American JT Toppin and the Red Raiders should provide a stiffer test, especially for a stout Drake defense that will try to limit the nation’s fifth-best team in adjusted offensive efficiency, according to KenPom. However, the kind of size that could really put a mid-major team like the Bulldogs at a major disadvantage isn’t something Texas Tech has. The Red Raiders, for all of their accomplishments this season, aren’t particularly big, with none of its top six players in minutes per game taller than 6-foot-9.
No. 8 Gonzaga over No. 1 Houston
The Bulldogs were one of the most underseeded teams by the NCAA Tournament selection committee, getting handed a No. 8 seed despite ranking in the top 10 in both the NET rankings and on KenPom. It gave coach Mark Few’s team a harder path to the Final Four, but conversely, it handed the team’s second-round opponent a much more difficult task than it otherwise would have had.
Unfortunately for Houston, that burden falls on it. The Cougars have been dominant over the past four months, with a 27-1 record since the start of December, but enter their matchup against Gonzaga as just a 5.5-point favorite, according to BetMGM, despite the seven-seed difference between the teams. The Bulldogs are balanced and well-rounded offensively, with five players averaging at least 10 points per game, which could stretch one of the nation’s best, most relentless defenses.
Gonzaga is familiar with winning at this stage of the tournament, too. The Zags are aiming to make it to their 10th-consecutive Sweet 16.
No. 10 Arkansas over No. 2 St. John’s
John Calipari’s Razorbacks are a No. 10 seed, but have a wildly talented roster, with five former top-100 recruits and some of the most coveted players from the transfer portal last offseason, namely guard Johnell Davis and forward Jonas Aidoo. After a 1-6 start in SEC play, Arkansas is 9-5 since the start of February, which included seven wins against NCAA Tournament teams.
The Razorbacks will be without injured leading scorer Adou Thiero, but St. John’s, for all of its success this season, is vulnerable. Of the 24 No. 2 seeds in NCAA Tournament history that started the season unranked and entered the tournament ranked in the top 10 nationally, 15 failed to make the Sweet 16. Two teams this year fit that bill: Michigan State and St. John’s.
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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: March Madness upset picks for Saturday men's NCAA second-round games
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