Big upsets are rare in women’s March Madness. Is this the year that changes?
March Madness is known for bracket-busters and Cinderella runs, but upsets are rare in the women’s NCAA Tournament, and surprises have been few and far between.
In fact, the lowest seed to ever win a national championship in the women's NCAA basketball tournament's 42-year history has been a No. 3 seed and it has only happened three times, most recently the LSU Tigers in 2023. Entering Friday, No. 14 through No. 16 seeds have a combined 1-360 record in the women's tournament since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1994. The lone win from a lower seed came in 1998 when No. 16 seed Harvard upset No. 1 seed Stanford in the first round.
That could change this year. The 2025 women's NCAA Tournament field is wide open, highlighting the parity in women's basketball as popularity surrounding the game continues to surge.
"Women's basketball has gotten to the point where parity is real," Kentucky head coach Kenny Brooks said Thursday. "We're a 4 seed and Liberty is a 13 seed. They're not. They're a good basketball team. You're not a 13 seed if you've (won) 26 games, whatever it is. They're a good basketball team, and they can come in here and they can beat you."
That almost happened. The No. 4 Wildcats held off the No. 13 Liberty Flames to win 79-78 on Friday. No. 10 seed Oregon took out No. 7 seed Vanderbilt 77-73 in overtime. No. 6 seed Michigan completed a comeback to stave off an upset bid by No. 11 seed Iowa State.
"There's much greater chances of upsets in the first two or three rounds than there ever was before. That is where the fun is in the NCAA Tournament," UConn head coach Geno Auriemma said on Friday.
Gone are the days where perennial powerhouses — like UConn and Tennessee, who have the most national championships in NCAA history with 11 and 8 titles, respectively — dominate women’s college basketball. Five different schools have won titles in the past six tournaments, with South Carolina being the only team to repeat in that span (2022, 2024). This year, there are nearly a dozen top contenders, but there's no clear-cut favorite.
“Going forward, every single team is good,” Kentucky star Georgia Amoore said Thursday. “Coach (Kenny) Brooks said it yesterday, a good day can send you home. We have to have great days. We have to stack great days."
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Parity is growing in women's basketball. 'Any team can beat you'
The rise in women’s sports dates back to the landmark 1972 Title IX Act that requires equitable treatment of female athletes. With more resources being poured into women’s sports, more talent has been bred nationwide. And unlike the past, when the best recruits went to only a handful of schools, there are many desirable destinations to choose from as universities continue to invest in their programs, facilities and coaching.
"It’s not going to be where you tip it off and it’s a cake walk," LSU head coach Kim Mulkey said. "Everybody can play now. There’s so much parity in the women’s game. ... People are going to give you their best shot. You got a lot of good coaches in this tournament and that’s good for us. It’s good for women’s basketball."
The transfer portal has also allowed teams to turn into contenders somewhat overnight. The TCU Horned Frogs, for example, went from hosting open tryouts and forfeiting games due to player shortages and injuries last season to earning a No. 2 seed in March Madness this year following additions like Hailey Van Lith. It marks TCU's first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2010 and the team's highest seeding in program history.
"The million dollar question in college athletics is who can assemble a roster. The first step is collect the talent and get the pieces that fit your style of play. That’s really hard to get right. The portal is speed dating," TCU head coach Mark Campbell said. "Once you get them here, you have to put your puzzle together.
"I think we’ve done as good as anybody in the portal era. We’ve signed 12 portal kids in two years, not a high school kid. We've done it and broken into the elite level of women's basketball."
Viewership, visibility surges: 'It's exploded'
We can't forget about viewership and visibility. Popularity in women's basketball reached a fever pitch last year, thanks to big names like Caitlin Clark and Angel Reese, and superstars like Paige Bueckers and Juju Watkins have carried the torch.
The 2024 women’s NCAA Tournament national championship game (18.7 million viewers) between Iowa and South Carolina had higher viewership than the men’s national championship game (14.8 million viewers) for the first time ever and marked the most-watched women’s basketball game ever across ESPN and ABC.
ABC will broadcast the title game for the third consecutive year.
"It's just exploded," NC State head coach Wes Moore said. "A lot of it has to do with the players. They're athletic. They're talented. They're skilled. They've worked really hard at their trade, and because of that, it's a great product. So it's an exciting time to be a part of it.
"I'm happy for our student-athletes, for the young ladies to get recognized and to get the attention I feel like they deserve. It's pretty awesome."
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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Women's March Madness upsets are rare. Could that change in 2025?
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