The Dallas Stars essentially sealed their fate as the second seed in the Central Division Thursday night with a 4-0 loss to the division-leading Winnipeg Jets, and the team has now lost four in a row.
Thursday night marked the first time the team had been blanked all season, and it did not seem like there was much hope of beating a locked-in Connor Hellebuyck. The game was a potential later round playoff preview and the Stars were once again not up to the task against the Jets. Now three of the four matchups between the two teams have been lopsided in favor of Winnipeg, with the only Stars win coming in a low-scoring 3-1 win in Dallas.
The loss Thursday came on the heels of a catastrophic, history-making blown lead by Dallas, giving up three goals in the final minute of regulation and eventually losing 6-5 to Vancouver in overtime on Tuesday. And before that, a hard-fought 3-2 overtime loss in Minnesota and a late collapse against Pittsburgh both contributed to the four game skid Dallas is in the midst of.
It is not just the losses that are concerning at this point - the underlying metrics are causes for concern for Dallas. The team is being routinely outshot, and not by a slim margin either. The Stars are allowing over 33 shots per game since the beginning of March while only averaging 24 shots themselves. Dallas hasn't been able to generate enough time in the offensive zone and are struggling to get many shots off per game.
Part of their game is having one of the best records in the league when getting outshot because their skill players are so good at taking small windows of opportunity and turning them into goals. The team is more focused on high quality opportunities than volume, which has worked for most of the season.
Advanced metrics prefers a team like the Carolina Hurricanes who put a high volume of shots on the opposing goalie almost every game. Thus, the Canes are favorites to make the Stanley Cup Final almost every season in recent memory, including this one. But in the playoffs, volume doesn't score goals. High quality, high danger and highly skilled shots win games.
In that regard, the Stars could still be okay even though they are getting highly out-chanced every game. If their skill players can score clutch playoff goals, paired with excellent goaltending from a highly capable goalie in Jake Oettinger, the team could be just fine.
But the overall defensive play since the trade deadline cannot be ignored and should raise concerns with only three games left before the postseason. The defense ended up being the weakness in the Western Conference Final, and to go out again because of defense would be a failure of sorts to address the problem, despite adding several new pieces.
Miro Heiskanen has been out for some time now, and for a while the team was able to keep their head above water. But now fans and probably even the team is realizing that he is needed more than ever to try and right the ship.
Whatever the fix is, the next three games will be needed to rid the sour taste of the Stars four game losing streak.
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