Final Four predictions: 5 reasons Duke won't win March Madness (and one reason it will)

One of these No. 1 seeds is not like the other.

That’s what oddsmakers would have you believe. The betting books list Duke at even-money odds to win the national championship, making the Blue Devils a decisive favorite.

If you’ve watched Duke play during March Madness, you understand why. The Blue Devils blazed through their region en route to San Antonio. Cooper Flagg is playing like the national player of the year, and the tournament spurred the best from Kon Knueppel, another freshman.

So, prepare Duke’s crown? Not so fast. Here are five reasons why the Blue Devils won’t win the national championship (and one big reason why they will).

Why Duke won’t win national championship

Final Four is historically strong

When Connecticut won the first of its back-to-back national championships in 2023, the Huskies blitzed through No. 5 Miami in the Final Four and No. 5 San Diego State in the national championship game. The Huskies never faced an opponent seeded better than No. 3 during that tournament. That upset-filled March Madness thrill ride produced a watered-down final stage.

Contrast that scene from two years ago with this Final Four, which marks just the second time four top-seeds reached the semifinals. This promises to be an epic finish to an otherwise mundane tournament, at least by March Madness standards.

The analytics nerds love this Final Four. Advanced stats guru Ken Pomeroy ranks this quartet as the four-best teams in the nation. Each team shines on both offense and defense.

Duke must bring its A-game to prevail. A No. 1 seed can survive a shaky performance in the first or second round. Beating Houston and then tackling