Colorado State's in. New Mexico's (almost certainly) in. How many other MW teams will make it?

Mar. 15—LAS VEGAS, Nev. — The UNM Lobos will host an open-to-the-public NCAA Selection Show party in the Pit on Sunday afternoon.

But they will be without two key ingredients from last year's similar event.

One is a Mountain West Tournament championship trophy, hardware they were forced to leave behind in Las Vegas over the weekend when No. 5 Boise State beat them in Friday night's semifinals.

The other thing missing? A ticket punched for the NCAA Tournament.

The Lobos aren't assured of anything, but they aren't exactly sweating it, either.

"Overall, what I told them in the locker room (after Friday's loss to Boise State) was, yes, disappointing we didn't win another championship," UNM coach Richard Pitino said. "But we're 26-7 and we're going to the NCAA Tournament. So I've got to remind the guys of that.

"We'll get back at it, take a little rest and be excited for Selection Sunday."

And it's not just wishful thinking on Pitino's part, either. College basketball analysts around the country seem to be in universal agreement that UNM is in the Big Dance, checking in at either a No. 9 or No. 10 seed in most bracket projections.

"The New Mexico Lobos come in right at number 34 on the overall seed list and its oddly firm," says Rocco Miller, college basketball analyst for Bracketeer.Org and The Field of 68.

"Typically the 8 to 11 seed lines are fluid. In UNM's case this season, they are worthy of being in safely, especially with the regular-season title in hand. UNM lands as the 34th of 34 safe teams."

Miller says there is a "clear divide" between the top 34 teams in this year's field and the rest of the teams hoping the make the tournament as an at-large selection.

Teams that win their conference tournament — UNM last year, Colorado State on Saturday, for instance — are guaranteed one of 31 automatic qualifier spots in the field of 68 teams. The other 37 berths go to teams the NCAA selection committee deems worthy based on their body of work from the regular season.

"The two bad losses and lack of a high power road win limits the ceiling," Miller said of his prediction of a No. 9 seed for UNM. "The championship and overall strong résumé keeps the floor high. I believe the committee will have New Mexico right in this range because there is a clear divide between the Top 34 and the rest. Everyone below UNM, beginning with number 35 Georgia has holes in its résumé. (NCAA Senior Vice President of Basketball) Dan Gavitt spoke to Andy Katz (Saturday) morning and said they had 34 teams in the field, which entirely lines up with my analysis."

Miller forecasts UNM to be a No. 9 seed in Wichita, Kansas, which is the West region pod where he projects the No. 8 seed to be Illinois of the Big Ten.

The winner of that game in Miller's projections would likely play No. 1 seed Houston, ironically the school where former UNM Athletic Director Eddie Nuñez now works.

Miller notes UNM is 7-2 vs. teams projected to be in the NCAA Tournament, but their other five losses are vs. teams not expected to be in the field.

Around the Mountain

In the first 22 seasons of Mountain West existence, the Mountain West had three seasons of getting four of its teams into the NCAA Tournament. It then got four teams in the tournament in each of the next three years.

The Mountain West sent four teams in 2022, four more in 2023 and a record six in 2024, a field that included the UNM Lobos for the first time in a decade.

How many will the Mountain West get this season?

Some project three, some project four and as of Saturday morning, albeit before Boise State lost in the MW title game, ESPN's Joe Lunardi's latest projection even had five MW teams in the field.

The only guarantee is that Colorado State (25-9), the hottest team in the league over the past month (and arguably in the entire country), will hear its name called.

UNM appears to be safely in.

If CSU has been the hottest team of late, Utah State (26-7) has been at the other end of that spectrum, but banked enough good will through the end of January when it started 19-2 to feel comfortable about getting in the tournament field, most analysts say.

San Diego State has the best win in the entire league — a nonconference, neutral court win against projected No. 1 seed Houston. And if the Aztecs' reputation and national title game run just two seasons ago holds any weight, then they should get in, though that is far from a given.

And Boise State, which has a Quad 4 loss on its résumé, did beat both SDSU and UNM this week in Las Vegas, two solid wins, but many feel the Broncos were playing an elimination game Saturday against the Rams.

"Certainly they are good enough to be in it," Pitino said late Friday when asked if he felt the Broncos were an NCAA Tournament team. "Obviously somebody — there's a couple teams that are really, really close right now. But they could absolutely make some noise if they do get in."

Tournament odds and ends

Despite not making the title game, two Lobos were voted onto the Mountain West All-Tournament team.

MW All-Tournament

Nique Clifford, Colorado State (Tournament MVP)

Kyan Evans, Colorado State

Tyson Degenhart, Boise State

Nelly Junior Joseph, New Mexico

Donovan Dent, New Mexico

Nelly hits the century mark

With his 19-point, eight-rebound, two-assist, two-steal, one-blocked shot game on Friday night, Junior Joseph notched his 100th block as a Lobo (49 last season, 51 so far this season).

He is the 10th Lobo to have at least 100 blocks in his career, tying A.J. Hardeman (2009-2012) for ninth place and passing previous No. 10 Cameron Bairstow (99 from 2011-2014).

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