Selection Sunday 2025: 5 toughest decisions facing NCAA tournament selection committee
For basketball fans, Selection Sunday is a day of anticipation. For the NCAA men’s basketball committee, it’s a day of stress.
Selection committee members are holed up in a hotel in Carmel, Indiana, watching games, analyzing résumés and choosing between bubble teams. Here’s a look at the biggest decisions they must make before 6 p.m. ET on Sunday when CBS unveils the finished bracket:
1. Is Auburn still the No. 1 overall seed?
Auburn will be the No. 1 overall seed unless the selection committee deviates from its usual approach and weighs late-season results more heavily than the overall body of work. While the Tigers (28-5) enter Selection Sunday having dropped three of their past four games, their season-long résumé is still better than anyone else’s.
Despite playing in one of the strongest leagues in recent memory, Auburn clinched the outright SEC title with a full week remaining in the regular season. The Tigers enter Selection Sunday with 16 Quadrant 1 victories, three more than any other team in college basketball. The list of elite teams they’ve defeated this season includes Houston, Alabama, Tennessee, Iowa State, Kentucky and Purdue.
[Yahoo Fantasy Bracket Mayhem is back: Enter for a shot to win up to $50K]
To say that Auburn doesn’t have a bad loss doesn’t even do the Tigers justice. All five teams who beat Auburn appear in the top 15 of the current AP poll. Four are likely to receive top-two seeds when the bracket is unveiled Sunday evening.
To its credit, Duke did beat Auburn in the lone meeting between the two teams this season at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Duke also holds the edge over Auburn in predictive metrics that take into account its ridiculous average margin of victory in ACC play. The Blue Devils outscored their 20 league opponents this season by an ACC-record 434 points. That's the largest scoring differential in league play by a power-conference team since 1953-54 Kentucky, per Stathead Basketball.
Where Duke’s case for the No. 1 overall seed unravels is the comparison between who the Blue Devils beat and who Auburn beat. Entering Saturday night’s ACC title game against Louisville, Duke has eight Quadrant 1 wins, exactly half as many as Auburn. Because of the weakness of the ACC, the Blue Devils only have four victories against the projected NCAA tournament field.
Houston also has an argument after winning the outright Big 12 title by four games and backing that up by reaching the conference tournament title game. Even so, the Cougars entered the Big 12 title game against Arizona with four fewer Quadrant 1 wins than Auburn. Houston also has a head-to-head loss to the Tigers at the Toyota Center in Houston. Plus, the Cougars are also the only No. 1 seed contender with a loss outside Quadrant 1.
Auburn Tigers (28-5, 15-3 SEC)
NET: 2 | SOR: 1 | KenPom 3 | Q1A: 9-5 | Q1B: 7-0 | Q2: 6-0 | Q3, Q4 losses: 0
Marquee wins: Houston, Tennessee, at Alabama, at Kentucky, Iowa State, Purdue
Losses: at Duke, Florida, Alabama, Tennessee, at Texas A&M
Duke Blue Devils (30-3, 19-1 ACC)
NET: 1 | SOR: 3 | KenPom 1 | Q1A: 5-3 | Q1B: 3-0 | Q2: 5-0 | Q3, Q4 losses: 0
Marquee wins: Auburn, at Arizona, at Louisville, Illinois
Losses: Kentucky, Kansas, at Clemson
Houston Cougars (29-4, 19-1 Big 12)
NET: 3 | SOR: 2 | KenPom 2 | Q1A: 6-3 | Q1B: 6-0 | Q2: 7-1 | Q3, Q4 losses: 0
Marquee wins: at Texas Tech, at Arizona, Kansas (2), Iowa State, BYU (2)
Losses: Auburn, Alabama, Texas Tech, San Diego State
2. Who should get the final No. 1 seed?
The major question entering Sunday’s SEC title game is whether the final No. 1 seed is at stake. Is Florida already too far ahead of Tennessee for the outcome to make a difference? Or could the Vols overtake the Gators if they beat them for the second time in three meetings?
What’s indisputable is that Florida enters Sunday’s game with the superior résumé. The Gators finished second to Auburn in the SEC, two full games ahead of Tennessee. The two teams split the head-to-head series in the regular season. Tennessee has one more Quadrant 1 victory, but Florida ranks higher in résumé and predictive metrics, has the better Quadrant 1 winning percentage and four more victories in Quadrant 2.
Florida Gators (29-4, 14-4 SEC)
NET: 4 | SOR: 4 | KenPom 2 | Q1A: 7-3 | Q1B: 3-1 | Q2: 9-0 | Q3, Q4 losses: 0
Marquee wins: at Auburn, Alabama (2), Tennessee, Texas A&M, Missouri, at Mississippi State, Ole Miss
Losses: at Tennessee, at Kentucky, Missouri, at Georgia
Tennessee Volunteers (27-6, 12-6 SEC)
NET: 6 | SOR: 7 | KenPom 5 | Q1A: 7-5 | Q1B: 4-1 | Q2: 5-0 | Q3, Q4 losses: 0
Marquee wins: Auburn, Florida, Alabama, at Texas A&M, at Louisville, at Illinois, Missouri
Losses: at Auburn, at Florida, Kentucky (2), at Ole Miss, at Vanderbilt
So if Florida wins on Sunday, the decision is easy for the committee. The Gators join Auburn, Duke and Houston on the No. 1 seed line. The Vols settle for a No. 2 alongside Michigan State and Alabama.
But if Tennessee wins, the Vols would narrow the margin. They’d have only one more loss than Florida, the 2-1 head-to-head advantage over the Gators and a superior list of marquee wins when you consider non-league victories at Louisville and Illinois.
Committee members have long claimed that the results of the Sunday conference tournament title games matter despite evidence to the contrary. They say that they build multiple brackets to account for different outcomes.
Sunday’s SEC title game could provide an intriguing litmus test. There are going to be a lot of angry Tennessee fans if the Vols beat Florida and still don’t surpass the Gators for the final No. 1 seed.
3. How many SEC teams should make the NCAA tournament?
The SEC will almost certainly surpass the record 11 NCAA tournament bids that the 2011 Big East received. The more pertinent question is by how much.
Nine SEC teams have been locks to make the field of 68 for weeks. Most bracket projections have Georgia, Arkansas, Oklahoma and Vanderbilt also sneaking in, though it wouldn’t be too big of a surprise to see the Commodores or Razorbacks relegated to the First Four in Dayton. That leaves Texas as the SEC bubble team with the most agonizing wait between now and the unveiling of the bracket.
The strength of Texas’ résumé is seven Quadrant 1 wins, tied with Oklahoma for the most among bubble teams. The Longhorns defeated the likes of Kentucky, Texas A&M, Missouri and Mississippi State during the regular season and added a second victory over the Aggies during SEC tournament play.
It will be up to the committee to decide whether that’s enough to offset Texas’ glaring flaws. The Longhorns (19-15) have a lot of losses. They’re 10-15 against the top two quadrants. They have a healthy number of quality wins, but they’ve also needed a ridiculous number of opportunities to attain them.
If Texas makes the field, that would likely give the SEC 14 NCAA bids. That feat is only possible because of the SEC’s non-conference dominance this past November and December. The league won 88.9% of its games against other conferences, amassed a 58-19 record against the other four power conferences and notched victories over the likes of Duke, Houston, Texas Tech and St. John’s.
4. Is North Carolina in or out?
North Carolina found a particularly brutal way to lose what might have been a must-win ACC tournament semifinal against top-ranked Duke on Friday night. A lane violation on forward Jae’Lyn Withers wiped out a game-tying free throw, halted a hellacious second-half comeback and doomed the Tar Heels to a 74-71 loss.
Where that leaves North Carolina is in a precarious position entering Selection Sunday. The Tar Heels are either one of the last teams in or first teams out in most bracket projections.
A hideous 1-12 record in Quadrant 1 games will be the culprit if North Carolina doesn’t hear its name on Sunday evening. UCLA is the only projected NCAA tournament team that the Tar Heels have beaten all season. They also have a Quadrant 3 home loss to Stanford weighing down their résumé.
Advocates for North Carolina point to the Tar Heels’ 8-0 Quadrant 2 record. And to their top-40 predictive metrics. And to the fact that seven of their Quadrant 1 opportunities came against Duke, Auburn, Florida, Alabama and Michigan State — all teams that are likely to receive top-two seeds on Sunday.
That last point is one the committee should take time to ponder. Would Xavier, Texas, Indiana or other bubble teams have done any better against North Carolina’s schedule than the Tar Heels did?
5. Where should Gonzaga be seeded?
For the committee, the challenge seeding Gonzaga is the discrepancy between what the Zags have accomplished and how good predictive metrics say they might be. Gonzaga has a résumé worthy of a No. 8 or 9 seed, yet KenPom, the NCAA’s NET rankings and other predictive metrics rank the Zags (25-8) as a top-10 team in the country.
The disagreement is partially a product of how close Gonzaga’s eight losses have been. Three of the eight were in overtime. The other five came by a combined 24 points. All but two came against NCAA tournament-bound opponents. The Zags’ 24.1-point average margin of victory also makes a difference. Only four of their victories all season have been by fewer than 10 points. They trounced Baylor by 38, clobbered Indiana by 16 and won at San Diego State by 13.
Gonzaga enters this year’s NCAA tournament having made nine straight Sweet 16s, matching North Carolina (1985-1993) and Duke (1998-2006) for the longest streaks since the bracket expanded to 64 teams. The playmaking of point guard Ryan Nembhard, the low-post scoring of center Graham Ike and the streaky explosiveness of wing Khalif Battle give the Zags real hope of extending that streak.
This isn’t one of Gonzaga’s best teams of the past decade, but this isn’t the potential second-round draw that a top-two seed will be pleased about either.
-
Why the SEC's potential record number of NCAA tourney bids is a headache for the selection committee
Just days before Selection Sunday, the SEC appears likely to eclipse the record of 11 NCAA tournament bids from a single league. That creates a multitude of challenges for the tourney selection ...Yahoo Sports - 5d -
Where Alabama projects in latest NCAA Tournament Bracketology ahead of Selection Sunday
Coming out of the SEC Tournament, Alabama projects as a high seed in the NCAA Women's Tournament entering Selection Sunday.Yahoo Sports - 1d -
Selection Sunday show 2025: NCAA tournament conference champions and automatic bids; printable bracket
The 2025 NCAA tournament bracket is taking shape ahead of Selection Sunday.Yahoo Sports - 8h -
Bracketology: Teams jockeying for NCAA Tournament seeding get last chance in conference tourneys
Time is running out on teams to impress the NCAA Tournament committee before Selection SundayCBS Sports - 4d -
Bruce Pearl points to No. 3 Auburn’s resume in saying Tigers deserve NCAA’s No. 1 overall seed
Auburn won this tournament last year only to wind up a No. 4 seed when the selection committee announced the NCAA Tournament bracket. Auburn lost to Yale in the first round.Yahoo Sports - 9h -
Teams vying for No. 1 NCAA seeds stated their cases and now its up to selection committee to decide
UCLA, South Carolina, Texas and USC all have stated their cases for No. 1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament with their stellar play this season.Yahoo Sports - 4d -
Selection Sunday live updates: March Madness brackets what to know, how to watch
Who made it to the Big Dance? We're about to find out when the NCAA Tournament selection committee reveals brackets tonight on Selection Sunday.Yahoo Sports - 2h -
Teams vying for No. 1 NCAA seeds stated their cases and now its up to selection committee to decide
UCLA, South Carolina, Texas and Southern California have all stated their cases for No. 1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament with their stellar play this seasonABC News - 4d -
All eyes on top eight teams, top 16 seeds ahead of Selection Sunday and women’s NCAA bracket
Where the Nos. 1 and 2 seeds play in the regionals is as big of a question this Selection Sunday as which bubble teams will be in the field.ESPN - 4h
More from Yahoo Sports
-
Technology provides benefits for West Virginia football
Technology has come a long way in the game of football and Rich Rodriguez believes that it certainly has a place.Yahoo Sports - 17m -
Commanders bring back former No. 4 overall pick for 2025
The Washington Commanders are bringing back defensive end Clelin Ferrell for next season.Yahoo Sports - 17m -
LIVE UPDATES: Bishop Stang vs. Hingham girls hockey MIAA state championship
Bishop Stang girls hockey will play Hingham on Sunday in the MIAA Division 1 state championship. Stick here for updates.Yahoo Sports - 17m -
Huge mock draft update after 1st wave of free agency
Where does Shedeur Sanders land in our new mock draft update?Yahoo Sports - 17m -
Indiana women’s basketball March Madness predictions: Where Hoosiers could land in NCAA bracket
Where could Indiana women's basketball be headed in the NCAA Tournament? Take a look at our March Madness predictionsYahoo Sports - 18m
More in Sports
-
Technology provides benefits for West Virginia football
Technology has come a long way in the game of football and Rich Rodriguez believes that it certainly has a place.Yahoo Sports - 17m -
Commanders bring back former No. 4 overall pick for 2025
The Washington Commanders are bringing back defensive end Clelin Ferrell for next season.Yahoo Sports - 17m -
LIVE UPDATES: Bishop Stang vs. Hingham girls hockey MIAA state championship
Bishop Stang girls hockey will play Hingham on Sunday in the MIAA Division 1 state championship. Stick here for updates.Yahoo Sports - 17m -
Huge mock draft update after 1st wave of free agency
Where does Shedeur Sanders land in our new mock draft update?Yahoo Sports - 17m -
Indiana women’s basketball March Madness predictions: Where Hoosiers could land in NCAA bracket
Where could Indiana women's basketball be headed in the NCAA Tournament? Take a look at our March Madness predictionsYahoo Sports - 18m