College basketball bubble watch, bracketology: Which teams will be sweating it on Selection Sunday?

We're just a day away from Selection Sunday.

Saturday is full of conference tournament semifinals and finals as the final automatic bids to the men's NCAA tournament will be finalized over the weekend. With most bubble teams already eliminated from their respective conference tournaments, there will be a lot of waiting and hoping over the next two days before Sunday's selection show.

Here's our last look at the bubble before the 68-team bracket is revealed.

Hoping a Friday elimination was enough

North Carolina (22-13): The Tar Heels were a lane violation away from tying the game and potentially taking Duke to overtime in the ACC tournament on Friday night. UNC outscored the Blue Devils by 18 in the second half after trailing by 21 at halftime, but it wasn’t enough in the 74-71 loss.

If Cooper Flagg and Maliq Brown were playing for the Blue Devils, you could make the case that the game was enough for North Carolina to safely make the NCAA tournament field. Instead, both players sat out with injuries and it still wasn’t enough for North Carolina to get the win.

UNC ranks No. 33 in KenPom’s metrics and is 36th in the NET rankings with just a 1-12 record in Quad 1 games.

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Texas (19-15): The Longhorns are three spots behind the Tar Heels in the NET rankings and 10 spots back in KenPom’s data after losing to Tennessee in the SEC tournament quarterfinals on Friday. Texas is much better in Quad 1 games — 7-10 — than North Carolina, but is just 3-5 in Quad 2 games. A win over Texas A&M on Thursday should have been enough for the Longhorns to get into the tournament, but they can’t feel totally sure about their status until they see their name on a seed line on Selection Sunday. And if Texas is in, there’s a decent chance the Longhorns are heading to Dayton for a First Four game on either Tuesday or Wednesday.

Are both Mountain West title game participants in?

Either Boise State (24-9) or Colorado State (24-9) will get the Mountain West’s automatic bid on Saturday. But the loser should be in the field as well.

The Broncos beat top-seed New Mexico 72-69 on Friday while Colorado State beat No. 3 seed Utah State 83-72 in the other semifinal. Boise State entered the MWC tournament as the No. 5 seed and has pulled two upsets to get to the title game.

We mentioned the Aztecs in Friday’s bubble watch. They’re still on the periphery of the tournament picture as the MWC could be a four-bid league with SDSU and the Lobos also getting into the big dance.

Hoping they’re safe

West Virginia (19-13): The Mountaineers are feeling a bit uneasier this weekend after a one-and-done performance in the Big 12 tournament. West Virginia got the No. 8 seed in the Big 12 after winning three of its last four regular season games but lost 67-60 to cellar dweller Colorado in its first Big 12 tournament game.

The Mountaineers rank far behind both North Carolina and Texas in the NET and KenPom rankings too. WVU is No. 53 in KenPom’s data despite having the No. 14 defense and is No. 51 in the NET rankings with a 6-9 record in Quad 1 games.

Xavier (21-11): The Musketeers should have played themselves into the tournament with the way they performed down the stretch. Xavier closed the regular season on a seven-game win streak, though it’s worth mentioning that six of those seven wins came against teams in the bottom four in the Big East.

Xavier is No. 42 in KenPom’s rankings and No. 45 in the NET rankings with a 1-9 record in Quad 1 games helped by an 8-2 mark in Quad 2 games.

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