These are March Madness bracketology's 9 most polarizing teams
There's always going to be somebody unhappy with the March Madness selection process. It's the nature of the beast with 364 Division-I men's basketball programs playing only up to 31 regular-season games with just 68 NCAA Tournament berths available. Perceived snubs are inevitable and seeding that makes people shrug is almost as likely, no matter how many advanced metrics the NCAA employs to decipher between teams.
But the seven metrics listed this year on team sheets for the NCAA Tournament selection committee are more than ever before, with each ranking or rating separated into two distinct categories ‒ predictive metrics and results-based metrics. The NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET), KenPom, ESPN's BPI and the Torvik rankings are considered predictive rankings that measure how good a team is based on its offensive and defensive efficiency, adjusted for opponent strength and location. The KPI, ESPN's Strength of Record (SOR) and Wins Above Bubble (WAB) are results-based rankings that judge how hard it was for a team to attain its resume.
For many teams, the two types of ratings largely converge by the end of the season. For others, however, there can be a wide swath of outcomes based on how a game was played and whether it was won or lost. These are the schools from major and mid-major conferences that could inspire the most robust conversation and debate among committee members, either over their selection into the 2025 NCAA Tournament and/or their potential seeding in the field, due to the differences between their ranking in predictive metrics and results-based metrics.
Here's a look at the most polarizing teams ahead of Selection Sunday based on the metrics used for the men's NCAA Tournament:
March Madness 2025: NCAA Tournament metrics' most polarizing teams
All rankings as of Wednesday, March 12
Gonzaga (25-8)
- NET: 8
- KenPom: 9
- BPI: 10
- Torvik: 11
- KPI: 28
- SOR: 38
- WAB: 37
The West Coast Conference tournament champions have predictive metrics on their side because they're among the top 10 in offensive efficiency and top 30 in defensive efficiency this season, according to KenPom. Gonzaga's win over Saint Mary's Tuesday in the WCC was also its second quad one win this month. But the Bulldogs only have two other quad one wins the rest of the season.
Memphis (27-5)
- NET: 48
- KenPom: 51
- BPI: 42
- Torvik: 60
- KPI: 13
- SOR: 25
- WAB: 28
The Tigers will be hard for the selection committee to seed because their results-based metrics far outpace their predictive metrics thanks to an impressive run against one of the nation's toughest nonconference schedule early in the season and a lot of closer-than-expected wins in the depleted American Athletic Conference.
VCU (26-6)
- NET: 32
- KenPom: 30
- BPI: 33
- Torvik: 28
- KPI: 43
- SOR: 47
- WAB: 54
VCU will be a fascinating test case for the selection committee if it doesn't grab the Atlantic-10 Conference's automatic berth. The Rams have lost just twice in 2025 and racked 11 double-digit wins that boosted their efficiency (and pushed their predictive metrics into the top-30). But VCU also has just one quad one win the entire season and didn't schedule aggressively in nonconference play.
Oregon (24-9)
- NET: 28
- KenPom: 31
- BPI: 36
- Torvik: 37
- KPI: 9
- SOR: 18
- WAB: 12
Oregon is another team safely in the NCAA Tournament field, but its potential seeding varies because of the difference in its predictive and results-based metrics. Nonconference wins over Alabama and Texas A&M have aged well and the Ducks have countered a five-game losing skid with a seven-game winning streak entering the Big Ten tournament.
Ole Miss (22-11)
- NET: 27
- KenPom: 25
- BPI: 31
- Torvik: 29
- KPI: 15
- SOR: 19
- WAB: 11
The metrics for Ole Miss reflect the depth of the SEC, with its results-based rankings still inside the top-20 despite four losses in its last six games to close the regular season.
Wake Forest (21-11)
- NET: 68
- KenPom: 73
- BPI: 62
- Torvik: 71
- KPI: 59
- SOR: 44
- WAB: 47
Wake Forest is squarely on the bubble for this year's NCAA Tournament field, largely because an inefficient offense is a drag on the Demon Deacons' predictive metrics. Late-season losses to Florida State, North Carolina State and Virginia haven't helped during another down year for the ACC.
Ohio State (17-15)
- NET: 41
- KenPom: 37
- BPI: 35
- Torvik: 41
- KPI: 51
- SOR: 57
- WAB: 55
Ohio State could wind up on the outside looking in of the NCAA Tournament because its shaky results-based metrics might overshadow efficiency numbers that are more line with a team in the field. The Buckeyes have played a lot of quad one games (17) but went 2-7 against the Big Ten's best eight teams, according to the NET.
Drake (30-3)
- NET: 56
- KenPom: 58
- BPI: 73
- Torvik: 58
- KPI: 33
- SOR: 33
- WAB: 41
Drake saved the selection committee from a tricky conversation by winning the Missouri Valley Conference's automatic berth. The Bulldogs' predictive metrics varied, and they're significantly lower than their results-based metrics. Nonconference wins over Vanderbilt and Kansas State, combined with a dominant run through league play, gives Drake a shot at a better seed than usual for the Missouri Valley champion.
UC San Diego (29-4)
- NET: 36
- KenPom: 39
- BPI: 58
- Torvik: 46
- KPI: 47
- SOR: 48
- WAB: 47
It'd likely make life easier on the selection committee if UC San Diego capped off its great regular season with the Big West Conference's automatic berth because the Tritons could present a fascinating at-large profile. Their predictive metrics vary, with KenPom and the NET viewing them more favorably than Torvik and especially BPI. That's unusual. Their results-based metrics aren't as strong, but a nonconference win over Utah State and a 15-game win streak has UC San Diego potentially positioned for the school's first NCAA Tournament berth in men's basketball.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: NCAA bracketology 2025: March Madness metrics unsure of these 9 teams
-
NCAA tournament selection metrics used to build March Madness bracket, explained
The men's NCAA Tournament selection committee team sheets have seven metrics for building March Madness bracket. Here's a breakdown of each one.Yahoo Sports - 1d -
March Madness is here. When is Selection Sunday?
March Madness will kick into full gear with this weekend's Selection Sunday event, where the 68-team NCAA tournament field will be announced.Yahoo Sports - 23h -
March Madness: 4 opponents NCAA tourney teams want to avoid on Selection Sunday
Every March, there is always an NCAA tournament team that is glaringly more dangerous than its seed line would indicate. Here are four foes teams don't want to see on Selection Sunday.Yahoo Sports - 3d -
When is Selection Sunday? March Madness schedule, date for NCAA bracket reveal
What time is Selection Sunday? What to know for men's March Madness bracket reveal for the 2025 NCAA Tournament, including time, how to watch.Yahoo Sports - 20h -
A debate rages over March Madness selections. Just ask the brains behind them
More metrics than ever will be used for the selection of the 2025 NCAA Tournament bracket. But qualms remain with their application for March Madness.Yahoo Sports - 1d -
NCAA bracket 2025: Printable March Madness bracket, tournament seeds to be set on Selection Sunday
The 2025 NCAA Tournament begins March 18; get your blank 2025 March Madness bracket hereCBS Sports - 2h -
March Madness: 5 opponents NCAA tourney teams want to draw on Selection Sunday
Every year, certain teams — even higher seeds — enter the NCAA tournament vulnerable. Here are five of those teams.Yahoo Sports - 4d -
Should College Football Playoff use metrics to pick teams like NCAA Tournament?
Metrics dominate the March Madness conversation before the NCAA Tournament. That's not the case with the College Football Playoff. Could that change?Yahoo Sports - 5h -
Women’s March Madness 2025 Selection Sunday: How to watch, who will be No. 1 seeds?
One of the most exciting times in sports is almost here. The 2025 NCAA Tournament starts next week with 68 teams readying for college basketball’s showcase event. South Carolina is looking to ...Yahoo Sports - 1d
More from Yahoo Sports
-
Francesco Friedrich of Germany wins 16th world bobsled championship, taking 4-man in Lake Placid
Francesco Friedrich won every championship he could in bobsledding this season. The German great is now a world champion for the 16th time, capping off his seventh four-man world title on Saturday ...Yahoo Sports - 13m -
Villanova reportedly fires coach Kyle Neptune after 3 seasons, failing to reach the NCAA tournament
Kyle Neptune didn't make the NCAA tournament once after he took over for Jay Wright.Yahoo Sports - 18m -
FGCU women's basketball vs. Central Arkansas live score, updates, ASUN championship game
It's FGCU women's basketball vs Central Arkansas in the final of the Atlantic Sun Tournament. Follow for live scores from Fort Myers.Yahoo Sports - 25m -
Alexander Hernandez vs. Kurt Holobaugh prediction, pick, start time for UFC Fight Night 254
Alexander Hernandez and Kurt Holobaugh meet Saturday on the main card of UFC Fight Night 254 at UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Check out this quick breakdown of the matchup from MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom. ...Yahoo Sports - 25m -
Mikel Arteta names the moment he knew Chelsea would be title contenders
Managers – especially those from the Pep Guardiola coaching tree – love flattering each other before they face each other, and today we’ve had a pretty intense example of that from Mikel Arteta....Yahoo Sports - 26m
More in Sports
-
Francesco Friedrich of Germany wins 16th world bobsled championship, taking 4-man in Lake Placid
Francesco Friedrich won every championship he could in bobsledding this season. The German great is now a world champion for the 16th time, capping off his seventh four-man world title on Saturday ...Yahoo Sports - 13m -
Villanova reportedly fires coach Kyle Neptune after 3 seasons, failing to reach the NCAA tournament
Kyle Neptune didn't make the NCAA tournament once after he took over for Jay Wright.Yahoo Sports - 18m -
FGCU women's basketball vs. Central Arkansas live score, updates, ASUN championship game
It's FGCU women's basketball vs Central Arkansas in the final of the Atlantic Sun Tournament. Follow for live scores from Fort Myers.Yahoo Sports - 25m -
Alexander Hernandez vs. Kurt Holobaugh prediction, pick, start time for UFC Fight Night 254
Alexander Hernandez and Kurt Holobaugh meet Saturday on the main card of UFC Fight Night 254 at UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Check out this quick breakdown of the matchup from MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom. ...Yahoo Sports - 25m -
Mikel Arteta names the moment he knew Chelsea would be title contenders
Managers – especially those from the Pep Guardiola coaching tree – love flattering each other before they face each other, and today we’ve had a pretty intense example of that from Mikel Arteta....Yahoo Sports - 26m