Can Oregon basketball reach Final Four in March Madness bracket? Our prediction

The field has been set for the men's NCAA Tournament, so let the March Madness begin.

Things will kick off on Tuesday night with play-in games between St. Francis PA and Alabama State, followed by North Carolina vs. San Diego State. However, the tournament will officially start for the No. 5 seed Oregon Ducks on Friday night with a game against the No. 12 seed Liberty Flames. That game will be the last of the day, tipping off at 7:10 p.m. PT from Seattle, WA.

It's an advantageous draw for Dana Altman and his team, who only have to travel a couple hundred miles up north for their game, while the Flames must fly across the country from Virginia. The early betting lines reflect this for Oregon, which has opened up as a 6.5-point favorite, according to FanDuel Sportsbook.

But what does the rest of the March Madness path look like beyond just the first game of the tournament for the Ducks? If we're being honest, there are reasons for Oregon fans to be optimistic that this team can make a deep run in the tournament, thanks to the draw they got and the recent form we've seen from the roster. Let's break it down.

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Why Oregon Can Reach the Final Four — Recent Play

Aside from their most recent game, a 74-64 loss to No. 1 seed Michigan State in the Big Ten Tournament, the Ducks have been incredibly hot lately. They won the previous eight games on their schedule, led by some stellar play from Nate Bittle, Jackson Shelstad, TJ Bamba, and Keeshawn Barthelemy.

A deep run from the Ducks revolves around Bittle and Shelstad's production. I encourage you to read a recent piece from The I-5 Corridor's Tyson Alger: 'Nate Bittle has turned into one of those guys for the Oregon Ducks.' Bittle may only be averaging 14 points, seven rebounds, and two blocks per game this season, but over the past eight games, he's been putting up 20 points and nine rebounds per night, highlighted by a career game of 36p/12r/2b in the season finale against Washington. Simply put, Bittle is playing some of his best basketball right now and is regarded as one of the best centers in the nation.

Meanwhile, Shelstad has had a rough stretch of games over the past couple of weeks, but when he is playing at his best, few scorers in the Big Ten can compare. He is also a player who tends to get hot and stay hot when the lights are bright, so it's not unreasonable to think he could channel his inner Payton Pritchard and lead a run in March.

Historically, Dana Altman's teams tend to play their best basketball of the season in late February and March. This team is no different, but one thing that the 2024-25 Ducks have that's different from years past is their early-season success, with wins against the likes of Alabama and Texas A&M to fall back on. On top of that, Oregon has won eight games that were decided by six points or less, so they are well-tested in crunch-time play.

All year, Oregon has been billed as a team that not many people would want to face in the tournament, and now that we're here, it's starting to look like that could be a true sentiment.

Why Oregon Can Reach the Final Four — The Draw

One of the first things fans and players tend to do once the bracket is revealed each year is to look at the draw they got. In other words, who might they have to face should they string together a few wins? For the Ducks, the draw isn't horrible in the slightest.

The No. 1 seed in the East Region is the Duke Blue Devils. While they have been a dominant team throughout the year, led by future No. 1 overall pick Cooper Flagg, injury issues have recently popped up. Flagg went down with what looked like a gruesome ankle sprain in the ACC tournament, and his status is currently unclear. There is a hope that he will be able to play in the first-round game for the Blue Devils on Friday, but with a severe ankle sprain, you never know.

The No. 2 seed in the conference is Alabama, which Oregon already beat once this season. Should they have to face them, it would undoubtedly be a tough matchup, but one they've handled before. The No. 3 seed is Wisconsin, which Oregon beat on the road in overtime earlier this year, and the No. 4 seed is Arizona, which Dana Altman is extremely familiar with, especially after defeating them in the Pac-12 Tournament a year ago.

None of this says that Oregon has a cakewalk to the Final Four. Still, when comparing their draw to another 5-seed like the Michigan Wolverines, who could have to play No. 1 Auburn, No. 2 Michigan State, No. 3 Iowa State, or No. 4 Texas A&M, I think the Ducks are in a good position.

Will the Oregon Ducks Make the Final Four? Our Prediction

So, after all that, do we predict that the Ducks will make it to the Final Four in 2025?

To be completely honest, I do not. Are they capable of it? Yes, but I would not personally stake my hard-earned cash on it.

The Ducks are a very talented team, and they certainly have the playmakers to make a deep run in the tournament if everything clicks. However, they have also been streaky and inconsistent this season, with the offense sometimes disappearing for long stretches in games. When playing at their best, I believe that Oregon can compete with 90% of the teams in the bracket, but counting on them to string together four games of perfect basketball and win the East Regional is a bit rich for my blood.

My Prediction: Oregon gets past Liberty in the first round, sneaks past Arizona in the second round, and then falls to Duke in a close Sweet 16 game.

This article originally appeared on Ducks Wire: Oregon NCAA bracket predictions: Can Ducks reach Final Four?

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