Can Missouri basketball reach Sweet 16 in March Madness bracket? Our prediction
The Tigers are back in the dance, but how long can they make their March Madness stay last?
Missouri basketball was handed a 6-seed for the 2025 NCAA Tournament and a Round of 64 matchup with Drake by the selection committee on Sunday. Mizzou’s tournament will begin Thursday in Wichita, Kansas.
Third-year MU head coach Dennis Gates is making his second trip to March Madness with Mizzou, after leading MU to its first NCAA Tournament win in a decade in 2023. The Tigers were upset by Princeton in the second round two years ago.
Gates has often spoken about the team’s goal to travel to San Antonio, Texas, for the Final Four. It seemed possible around mid-February, when Missouri capped a lightning-hot run with a shootout win over Alabama.
Since then, the season has hit somewhat of a slump. The Tigers will enter the Big Dance with just two wins in their past seven games.
Does Missouri have the ability to make the second weekend of the tournament?
Here are our predictions for the Tigers in March Madness:
2025 March Madness prediction for Missouri basketball
Missouri’s path to the Sweet 16 requires the Tigers beat one of the nation’s winningest teams in Drake and then, likely, 3-seed Texas Tech.
That’s not easy by any stretch of the imagination. But is it doable?
Absolutely.
Recent slump aside, Mizzou has shown it has the chops to go toe-to-toe with anyone on its day. Alabama, Florida and Kansas — all top five teams when Mizzou knocked them off — can attest to that.
There’s a size advantage that the Tigers can exploit with Drake, with the Bulldogs’ tallest player standing 6 foot 8. Mizzou has shown it can cause problems for opposing defenses in the paint and at the rim (See: Missouri 82, Oklahoma 58).
Mizzou and Texas Tech currently own the nation’s No. 5 and 6 adjusted offensive rankings, respectively, per the analytics site KenPom. Missouri has generally performed well when games have become shootouts (See: Mizzou 110, Alabama 98).
The opportunity is there for MU to do something it has not done since 2009: Make the Sweet 16.
Can Mizzou make it even deeper?
Let’s do something dangerous and assume Mizzou does make it to the second weekend of March Madness.
Want to guess who could be waiting in San Francisco for the West Regional semifinal?
If the games in the other pod for the regional go chalk in the Round of 64, 2-seed St. John’s and 7-seed Kansas would play each other for a spot in the Sweet 16.
Can you imagine a Border War in the NCAA Tournament?
Goodness!
The likeliest outcome — and, again, we’re opting to forget the ‘Madness’ section of this magnificent event — is for Florida and St. John’s to make it out of their respective brackets and stand in MU’s way for a Final Four berth.
That’s too much to overcome for potentially any team in the country. Florida will be a popular pick to win the whole thing. Head coach Rick Pitino has St. John’s playing some of the best basketball in the country, especially on defense.
Missouri has spoken about its ambitions of heading to San Antonio. We think that’s a step or two too far this year for the Tigers.
Game-by-game predictions for Mizzou
First round: Missouri 81, Drake 72
Second round: Missouri 93, Texas Tech 92
Sweet 16: St. John’s 77, Missouri 71
This article originally appeared on Columbia Daily Tribune: Missouri NCAA bracket predictions: Mizzou can reach Sweet 16
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