Badgers Wire staff predictions for Wisconsin basketball in the 2025 NCAA Tournament

The No. 3-seed Wisconsin Badgers are set to meet the No. 14-seed Montana Grizzlies in the first round of the 2025 NCAA Tournament on Thursday afternoon.

Wisconsin enters as the prohibitive betting favorite, plus ranks 144 spots higher in KenPom (No. 13 to No. 157) and 155 in ESPN's BPI (No. 18 vs. No. 173). While March Madness is known to create upsets and hard-to-predict results, it would be a complete shock if Wisconsin didn't advance to the second round.

The round of 32 is where Greg Gard's team's road begins to get interesting. Both No. 6 BYU and No. 11 VCU appear much stronger than their seed line indicates. BYU is KenPom's No. 24 overall team, led by the nation's No. 11-ranked offense. VCU, meanwhile, is right there at No. 30. Either way, Wisconsin is set for a real test as early as Saturday.

Past that, the Badgers may be on a collision course with No. 2-seed Alabama in the Sweet 16 and No. 1-seed Duke in the Elite Eight. Both of those top-ranked teams expect to get star players back from injury -- Grant Nelson and Cooper Flagg, respectively. Wisconsin's road through the NCAA Tournament may come down to how those two players perform -- if and when they are able to go. For those headlines to matter, the Badgers would need to reach the Sweet 16, something they haven't done in seven years.

With the tipoff of the first round just 24 hours away, the Badgers Wire staff got together to predict how Wisconsin will fare against Montana, as well as in the entire NCAA Tournament.

Score predictions for Wisconsin vs. Montana

INDIANAPOLIS, INDIANA - MARCH 15: Head coach Greg Gard of the Wisconsin Badgers looks on against the Michigan State Spartans during the second half in the Big Ten men's basketball tournament semifinals at Gainbridge Fieldhouse on March 15, 2025 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

Ben Kenney: Wisconsin should have no trouble returning to its peak form against a low-ranked Montana team. That includes better shooting numbers, improved play from John Tonje, interior scoring from Steven Crowl and Nolan Winter and bench contributions from Kamari McGee and Carter Gilmore. The big question will come in the next game when either BYU or VCU presents a legitimate test. Score: Wisconsin 87, Montana 62

Mike Hall: Wisconsin’s round of 64 outcome shouldn't require much explaining. Montana enters this matchup at No. 157 in KenPom, a historically low mark for a No. 14 seed. The Grizzlies did win the Big Sky tournament, but they failed to record any signature victory this season. The Badgers are simply too deep and too efficient offensively to lose this contest. While the tournament is unpredictable, UW’s opening game isn’t. Score: Wisconsin 86, Montana 64

Connor Whelan: While I don’t think Wisconsin got the best draw, I do believe that Montana was the ideal 14-seed for the team to be matched up against. The Grizzlies lack size across the board and should have trouble defending Wisconsin's frontcourt duo of Steven Crowl and Nolan Winter. I feel confident that the Badgers quickly return to their strength, hit some threes and earn a comfortable first-round victory. Score: Wisconsin 83, Montana 67

Predictions for Wisconsin's NCAA Tournament fate

INDIANAPOLIS, INDIANA - MARCH 14: John Tonje #9 and John Blackwell #25 of the Wisconsin Badgers celebrate against the UCLA Bruins during the first half in the Big Ten men's basketball tournament quarterfinals at Gainbridge Fieldhouse on March 14, 2025 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

Ben Kenney: Wisconsin will handle Montana with ease. Surprisingly, I think the team will also make a statement in a win over BYU. The Badgers match up well with teams that can score. At times, they've struggled against the Big Ten's top-ranked defensive units. Next, I think this Grant Nelson knee injury is one to monitor. Even if he returns, how far from 100% is he? Alabama will be a darling entering that round. I think Wisconsin ruins people's brackets with a major win. Finally, the road probably ends in the Elite Eight against top-ranked Duke. Prediction: Elite Eight loss to Duke

Mike Hall: Wisconsin will surge past Montana in the first round, then face one of the more underrated offensive teams in the country in BYU. The Cougars rank No. 24 in KenPom with the No. 11 offense in the nation and are accountable for over 80 points per appearance, a similar caliber to what UW offers. However, the Cougars don’t have a John Tonje or a John Blackwell. Wisconsin’s stars will show out in the round of 32 to clinch the program's first Sweet 16 berth since 2017. Afterward, the Badgers will fall to the Alabama Crimson Tide in the Sweet 16. Mark Sears’ group can contend with any team in the country on its best night on the hardwood. Wisconsin has yet to face a team of its caliber this season. Prediction: Sweet 16 loss to Alabama

Connor Whelan: Wisconsin’s ability to bounce back after tough losses this season gives me faith it can make a deep run. I feel good about the Badgers making it to the Sweet Sixteen, then potentially the Elite Eight, depending on the status of Alabama forward Grant Nelson. Prediction: Elite Eight loss to Duke

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This article originally appeared on Badgers Wire: Wisconsin basketball NCAA Tournament bracket final predictions