Election night: What to watch for as America votes
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All that’s left to do now is vote, count and wait for the results.
Americans entered Election Day with extreme uncertainty about who will be the 47th president after a historic campaign that will be remembered for two assassination attempts against former President Trump, Trump’s 34 felony convictions, and the Democrats swapping Vice President Harris for President Biden with only months to go. Both the Trump and Harris campaigns are expressing confidence they’ll win.
Electoral College chaos is a real possibility, with Harris campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon telling reporters that some battleground states “may not move together in ways that they perhaps have in the past.” “We may not know the results of this election for several days, but we are very focused on staying calm and confident throughout this period as the process goes through,” she said.
For Trump, it will be his final presidential campaign, win or lose: “Yeah, I would think so,” he said Tuesday while wearing a red Make America Great Again hat at a polling place in Florida.
Trump said he felt “sad” and “very fulfilled.” -
Trump will watch the results with family and Elon Musk at Mar-a-lago; his supporters gather at Florida's Palm Beach Convention Center.
- Harris will watch from her alma mater Howard University in Washington, D.C.
It’s a true toss-up, according to available data, but that doesn’t mean one candidate or the other won’t run away with an Electoral College victory. -
The final Nate Silver election model gave Harris a 50.015 percent chance of winning. Silver ran 80,000 simulations, and Harris won 40,012 of those.
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Here’s what The Hill’s panel of pundits think.
When will we know the winner? Based on history, statements from election officials, and media reports, here’s how it could play out (all times Eastern): -
Arizona: Polls close at 9 p.m. It could take several days if the race is as closes it was in 2020, when Biden won by just more than 10,000 votes. Most news outlets called the race for Biden in 2020 a full eight days after the election, although Fox News and The Associated Press made controversial early calls.
- Georgia: Polls close at 7 p.m. Georgia counts fast, and the results could be in tonight.
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Michigan: Most polls close at 8 p.m., with some closing at 9 p.m. The secretary of state says they hope to have final results tallied by Wednesday, if not sooner.
- North Carolina: Polls close at 7:30 p.m. North Carolina counts fast, and the results could be in tonight.
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Nevada: Polls close at 10 p.m. This could take several days, especially because it appears to be extremely close. In 2020, Biden was declared the winner four days after Election Day. Ballots that are postmarked by Election Day and received before Saturday will still be counted.
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Pennsylvania: Polls close at 8 p.m. It could take several days to know the winner. In 2020, Biden was declared the winner four
days after Election Day.
- Wisconsin: Polls close at 9 p.m. Officials hope to know the winner by Wednesday, if not sooner.
The Wall Street Journal breaks down the counties to watch for early clues about how the race is shaping up. -
There’s one township where the vote count is certain: Trump and Harris each received 3 votes in tiny Dixville Notch, N.H., which votes at midnight. In 2020, Biden won all five votes there.
Helpful pages to bookmark:
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HOW THE HILL WILL REPORT RESULTS
I’m Brandon Conradis, The Hill’s Campaign Editor. With Election Day finally here, we’ll be monitoring polls across the country to bring you accurate and fast updates as the night unfolds. This year, we have partnered with the experts at Decision Desk HQ, who specialize in reporting election results. Together, The Hill and DDHQ will provide calls for races up and down the ballot, including the race for the White House, Senate and House of Representatives. You can follow our up-to-the-minute live results on The Hill’s website TheHill.com and across our social media platforms.
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A few items for your media radar… -
NewsNation’s election coverage begins at 6 p.m. and will be anchored by Chris Stirewalt and Chris Cuomo. Variety profiled Stirewalt, who was part of Fox News’s decision desk in 2020 that was the first to correctly call Arizona for Biden.
- Beloved elections analyst Steve Kornacki will begin his coverage for NBC at 6 p.m.
- Amazon’s first-ever election livestream will be anchored by Brian Williams.
A couple of X accounts to follow for data-heads: |
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Welcome to Evening Report! I'm Jonathan Easley, catching you up from the afternoon and what's coming tomorrow. Not on the list? Subscribe here. |
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House control rests in the balance
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Republicans are heavily favored to win the Senate, but it may take days or weeks to know which party will control the House. In the upper chamber, the math is clear: -
If Republicans pick up two seats and don’t fumble away any seats in red states, they’d claim a 51-49 majority. Most analysts are projecting the GOP to hold between 51 and 54 seats.
- The GOP's best pick-up opportunities are in West Virginia, Montana and Ohio. West Virginia is essentially a lock for Republicans.
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Republicans are also fighting for pick-ups in several presidential battlegrounds, including Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
- Incumbent Sen. Deb Fischer (R) is locked in a tight race against independent candidate Dan Osborn in Nebraska, which could complicate the GOP's push for an expanded majority.
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Democrats are holding out hope that Sens. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) and Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) can withstand electoral headwinds in states that former President Trump should win handily.
- Democrats are hoping for a historic upset in Texas, where Sen. Ted Cruz (R) is facing a spirited challenge from Rep. Colin Allred (D).
The House forecast is much murkier, with Democrats needing to pick up four seats to win the majority. -
Recounts and legal challenges could drag some House races out for weeks. Some of the most hotly contested seats are in California, where counting will be slow.
Via The Hill’s Emily Brooks and Mike Lillis: “There are dozens of closely contested seats up for grabs, setting the stage for a potential scenario where many of those contests are too close to call on election night and the race to 218 remains unresolved. Determining the ultimate winner in that situation will almost certainly take days — or longer — as late ballots filter in, slow-counting states tally their results and likely legal challenges work their way through the courts.”
Analysts are forecasting the final breakdown will be very narrow.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball is forecasting it to be the closest possible, predicting a 218-217 Democratic majority. Election Day may leave some clues about the future majority in the lower chamber.
Here are some races to watch that could indicate which way the winds are blowing, according to The Hill’s Congressional team: -
Virginia’s 2nd and 7th Districts: If one party wins both suburban battlegrounds, it could be indicative of a nationwide trend.
- Iowa’s 1st and 3rd Districts: Both are potential pickup opportunities for Democrats, particularly after the shocking Des Moines Register poll.
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New York: There are five districts with first-term GOP incumbents running for reelection.
- North Carolina’s 1st District: Once a Democratic stronghold, the district has been redrawn and should be more competitive for Republicans.
- Ohio’s 9th and 13th Districts: Both seats are rated by Cook Political Report as “leans Democrat.”
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Nebraska’s 2nd District: Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) is one of the most vulnerable GOP House members this cycle, so Democrats will be looking for a win here.
- Maine’s 2nd District: A rural district where Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) is a perennial target.
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Nation braces for unrest; courts prep for lawsuits
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Authorities across the nation are preparing for potential election-related unrest as Americans cast their ballots following a deeply divisive campaign. -
Fifteen states activated national guard units, keeping them on standby and ready to respond to potential violence from rioters and extremist groups.
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Voting locations, particularly those in swing states, have received security upgrades to deal with the potential chaos, according to Axios.
- The Department of Homeland Security warned about election week cyberattacks and physical threats.
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In Washington, D.C., authorities erected metal fencing around the White House and Capitol Hill. Many storefronts downtown have been boarded up.
Election officials are busy combatting social media misinformation and other threats. -
Pennsylvania and Arizona counties are investigating suspicious voter registration forms.
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Federal authorities say Russia and Iran are ramping up their voter influence campaigns.
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Georgia’s Republican secretary of State Brad Raffensperger has been at the forefront after dealing with real-world fallout from election conspiracies in 2020. Raffensperger on Tuesday held a press conference to describe “non-credible” bomb threats reported at polling places in Fulton County that he said were “Russian in origin.”
- The FBI also warned about noncredible bomb threats in multiple states, saying they appeared to be linked to Russian email domains.
The courts are weighing new election cases every hour, and court watchers expect a deluge of new lawsuits in the following days. Here’s a sampling of what’s before the courts: |
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"Five economic areas the incoming US president needs to tackle," by Mohamed El-Erian for The Financial Times.
"Whether Harris or Trump wins, Americans must unite to confront the enemies abroad," by Joseph Bosco for The Hill. |
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76 days until Inauguration Day. |
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Tuesday - Harris and her campaign hold an election watching event this evening at Howard University in Washington, D.C.
- The Trump campaign holds an election night watch party at the Palm Beach Convention Center in Florida. Trump and his family members will watch election results from Mar-a-lago.
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There a story you think should be getting more attention? Something people should be talking about? Drop me a line: jeasley@thehill.com |
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