12:30 Report — Election guide: Poll closing times, election discounts and more

12:30 REPORT

We made it — it’s Election Day. There are a lot of nerves on both sides, but as Ben Rhodes reminded us, it is a privilege to live in a country where we don’t already know the election outcome. What are your predictions? Send them to me! Here’s what’s in this edition:

Things to watch for tonight that may indicate a Harris or Trump victory.
A few scenarios that could play out.
The infamous NYT election needle is back.
Harris is spending today in Washington; Trump is in Florida.
Election Day freebies — free doughnuts, rides, rental cars, etc.

I’m Cate Martel with a quick recap of the morning and what’s coming up. Send tips, commentary, feedback and cookie recipes to cmartel@thehill.com. Did someone forward this newsletter to you? Sign up here. 

🗳️ Your Election Day Guide

Go out, vote, get a sticker, get some freebies and find a way to stay calm:

The polls are open, the closing arguments have been made and some of the buildings in downtown Washington, D.C., have been boarded up. It’s Election Day 2024.

Vice President Harris wrapped up her last day of campaigning in Pennsylvania and returned to Washington, D.C., last night with her family to watch Election Day unfold. 📹 Watch her deboard Air Force Two

Former President Trump extended his last campaign rally well into Tuesday morning, leaving the Grand Rapids, Mich., stage around 2:15 a.m. He’s back in Florida now, hosting dinners this evening at his Mar-a-Lago resort, according to ABC News.

The two had very different closing vibes: The New York Times noticed Trump appeared “drained at arenas that were not filled,” while Harris “promised a more united future as energized supporters chanted alongside her, ‘We’re not going back.’” Read more on the moods: ‘A Grim Trump and an Upbeat Harris End the Race Hitting Opposite Notes’

And now, we wait: Nearly every poll has showed an incredibly close race, so this will be a game of turnout. Did Harris do enough to convince Black male voters to cast a ballot for her? Did Trump persuade more Latino voters to vote his way (or did the Puerto Rico comments do measurable damage)? Will the gender gap be as wide as polls have shown? Will young voters show up?

Will the weather impact turnout?: Michigan and Wisconsin could see some rain today, and it’s warm on the East Coast, but it doesn’t look like there will be much in the way of severe weather today. 🌧️ The Weather Channel’s Election Day forecast

Nate Silver published his final forecast: Veteran pollster Nate Silver predicts Harris will win but says it’s “literally closer than a coin flip.” He ran 80,000 simulations and Harris won 50.015 percent of them. 😅 Read the final ‘Silver Bulletin’ forecast

➤ HERE’S YOUR GUIDE:

What time should you start paying attention?: The first big batch of polls will close at 7 p.m. Eastern. Georgia will be the first battleground state to close, followed by North Carolina, so keep an eye on those states.

🧩 Clues that Harris may win: If Harris is doing well in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, she’s having a good night.

🧩 Clues that Trump may win: Trump’s easiest path to victory is winning Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania.

Timing: Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are two of the biggest battlegrounds — Pennsylvania has the most electoral votes of any swing state — but we likely won’t know who won those states for several days because of how they process their ballots. Plus, Arizona and Nevada have a lot of mail-in ballots, which could delay their results. Be patient and trust the system!

Georgia: Polls close at 7 p.m.

North Carolina: Polls close at 7:30 p.m.

Pennsylvania: Polls close at 8 p.m.

Michigan: Most close at 8 p.m., but some close at 9 p.m.

Arizona: Polls close at 9 p.m.

Wisconsin: Polls close at 9 p.m.

Nevada: Polls close at 10 p.m.

(All times Eastern)

⌚List of every state’s poll closing time

⌚ Expected times for swing state results

Quick run-through of the math: 270 is the magic number of Electoral College votes needed to win the White House. If there are no surprises in reliably red or blue states (and that’s a big if!), Democrats should secure roughly 226 electoral votes and Republicans should win about 219. That leaves 93 Electoral College votes up for grabs in the seven battleground states.

🟣Pennsylvania: 19

🟣North Carolina: 16

🟣Georgia: 16

🟣Michigan: 15

🟣Arizona: 11

🟣Wisconsin: 10

🟣Nevada 6

^ If you want to play around with scenarios, Harris is hunting for 44 votes and Trump would need 51 votes.

Where are Harris and Trump today?: Harris is in Washington, D.C., taping radio interviews and holding internal meetings. She’s then holding her election night party at Howard University. Trump is in Florida, voting in Palm Beach and then holding a watch party at the Palm Beach Convention Center.

How many people voted early?: 80 million Americans have already cast their ballots. For context, 154 million people voted early in 2020 (inflated by COVID-19), and 47 million Americans voted early in 2016.

Follow the day’s biggest updates:

🗨️ The Hill’s live blog

🗺️ The Hill and Decision Desk HQ’s election results tracker

🪡 The infamous NYT election needle

➤ HOW THE HILL WILL REPORT RESULTS

I’m Brandon Conradis, The Hill’s Campaign Editor. With Election Day finally here, we’ll be monitoring polls across the country to bring you accurate and fast updates as the night unfolds. This year, we have partnered with the experts at Decision Desk HQ, who specialize in reporting election results. Together, The Hill and DDHQ will provide calls for races up and down the ballot, including the race for the White House, Senate and House of Representatives. You can follow our up-to-the-minute live results on The Hill’s website TheHill.com and across our social media platforms.

➤ ELECTION DAY FREEBIES:

Krispy Kreme is giving out free glazed doughnuts today.
Johnny Rockets is giving customers a free shake with any purchase.
Ikea is offering free frozen yogurt.
Edible is offering a free treat if you show your “I voted” sticker.
GrubHub has election week specials, including at Starbucks, Wendy’s, KFC, Shake Shack, Arby’s and Little Caesars.
Lyft and Uber are offering discounted rides for voters. Plus, Uber Eats is offering 25 percent off orders.
Hertz is offering a free day of a car rental.
Lime is offering free scooters to and from the polls with code VOTE2024.

➤ ELECTION DAY TIDBITS:

From Tim Alberta, a journalist who is well-sourced within the Republican Party: “yes, there are Trump staffers who no longer much care whether he wins or loses. Not exactly breaking news. Hard to overstate how terrible morale is inside of this campaign—and how much anger/resentment is felt toward the candidate.” His full X post

^ Speaking of Alberta, he posted his official prediction. He points to similarities from 2016 and says his brain tells him Trump will win, but his gut points to Harris.

From the nonpartisan Cook Political Report’s Dave Wasserman: “The November surprise? That there really hasn't been a huge non-campaign story (natural disaster, border crisis etc.) driving the news, which has put the spotlight on the candidates' events, personalities and behavior. It's not played to Trump's strengths.” His full X post

📸 The U.S. Capitol is surrounded with a barricade

Secretary Mayor Pete using the claw arcade game: Politico’s Adam Wren 📸 posted a photo of Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg playing with the arcade claw while in Michigan on Monday.

➤ HOUSE AND SENATE RACES:

The Hill and Decision Desk HQ forecast gives Republicans a 52 percent chance of keeping the House and a 76 percent chance they take the Senate.

The five Senate seats most likely to flip, not including West Virginia: Montana, Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan. Al Weaver’s predictions

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COMING UP

In today's Evening Report from Jonathan Easley: Everything you should watch for as election night unfolds, including poll closing times and when we can expect results in the battleground states. Click here to sign up & get it in your inbox.

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🐝 Internet Buzz

🍩 Celebrate: Today is National Doughnut Day!

🐘 The national zoo had an elephant named Kamala?: The Smithsonian National Zoo announced the death of one of its elephants over the weekend. The elephant had been sick. Well, the elephant’s name was Kamala. (Washingtonian)

🗓️ Wondering why elections happen on Tuesdays?: It dates back to the 1800s and was planned around farmers’ schedules. (HuffPost)

📆 On The Agenda

The House and Senate are out. President Biden and Vice President Harris are in Washington, likely pacing around their offices. (all times Eastern)

This morning: Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) campaigned in Harrisburg, Pa. 💻 Watch
1:30 p.m.: Biden receives his daily briefing.
Tonight: Harris holds an election watch party at Howard University in Washington.
Tonight: Former President Trump holds an election party at the Palm Beach (Fla.) Convention Center.