As the Arsenal players returned to training after the international break, they couldn’t help noticing a shift around the club.
There was a lift, as they began to look up to the very pinnacle of the game again. Mikel Arteta still wants to ensure they push as much as possible in the Premier League but his staff were already preparing for Real Madrid, and the Champions League. Meanwhile, Aston Villa have naturally been feeling something similar.
It is now the great ambition, that could reframe the entire season. Liverpool may have been the best team for months, which will ensure they are more than worthy Premier League winners, but a drop-off at the wrong time has cost them in Europe.
Those at Inter Milan have noticed parallels from their own last major Champions League run two years ago. Napoli were Europe’s outstanding team over that 2022-23 season, essentially winning the league by February, only to suddenly drop off in March.
Serie A’s fourth-placed AC Milan knocked them out in the Champions League quarter-finals, only for third-placed Inter to then eliminate their city rivals in the semi-finals.
Given a few other developments that suggest similar this time around, the wonder is if something of a trend may be starting to emerge.
Are we about to temporarily go back to the days when the Champions League suited those sides who aren't necessarily the best in their country, or at least don’t have to endure the rigours of a title race?
It was very definitely a pattern from 2000 to 2007, and it does not feel like a coincidence that was the period immediately after the competition’s last major expansion. The Champions League initially went to 32 teams in 1999-2000, bringing in third- and fourth-placed teams for the first time, while the World Cup had also just risen to 32 teams. That immediately brought more games and many squads struggled to cope with the extra demands.
League positions of Champions League finalists
Year - match: Winners - Runners-up
2000 - Real Madrid 2-1 Valencia: 5th - 3rd
2001 - Bayern Munich *1-1 Valencia: 1st - 5th
2002 - Real Madrid 2-1 Bayer Leverkusen: 3rd - 2nd
2003 - AC Milan **0-0 Juventus: 3rd - 1st
2004 - Porto 3-0 Monaco: 1st - 3rd
2005 - Liverpool ***3-3 AC Milan: 5th - 2nd
2006 - Barcelona 2-1 Arsenal: 1st - 4th
2007 - Milan 2-1 Liverpool: 4th - 3rd
* Bayern Munich won 5-4 on penalties
** AC Milan won 3-2 on penalties
*** Liverpool won 3-2 on penalties
There was an extended period where clubs just couldn't excel on two or more fronts. The telling stat from that eight-year period is that more teams that finished fourth or lower in their domestic leagues reached Champions League finals than those who were simultaneously winning their national title. One of the latter was also Porto of 2003-04, who arguably took advantage of wealthier clubs struggling. Jose Mourinho’s team navigated the gaps left by the biggest squads to become the competition’s last great surprise.
There was even ...
