Texas’ path to the Final Four: Will Notre Dame, Tennessee or Ohio State stand in the way?
The Birmingham 3 region has multiple threats and a plethora of contrasting styles that should make for exciting competition.
Texas opens up play with the winner of the No. 16 seed play-in game in the First Four between High Point and William & Mary. High Point is back in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2021, its second appearance overall as William & Mary reaches its first NCAA Tournament with auto bid from the CAA tournament win as a No. 9 seed.
so much love for these people. @SEC champs 🤘#HookEmpic.twitter.com/Hm6tQXDMhb
— Texas Women’s Basketball (@TexasWBB) March 17, 2025
In the second round, the Longhorns will face one of two teams that play with non-traditional multi-guard lineups but different styles. Coach Shauna Green leads Illinois to its highest seeding (No. 8) in the NCAA Tournament since 2000, and its second tournament appearance in her three seasons as head coach. Despite two season-ending injuries to main rotation players, the Illini finished fifth in the Big Ten, winning games with one of the nation’s better starting lineups.
No. 9 seed Creighton is back in the tournament for a fourth-straight season and its eight appearance overall under coach Jim Flanery. Sporting the 18th-ranked offense, per CBB Analytics, the Bluejays are a dominant long-distance shooting team, attempting just shy of 25 per game and hitting 36.7 percent on 3s. Led by stalwart seniors Lauren Jensen and Morgan Maly, Creighton has experience and a style that’s created upsets.
The Sweet 16 brings an additional level of spice to the Longhorns’ path. Two of the more high-octane teams in the country, Ohio State and Tennessee, are respectively seeded No. 4 and No. 5 in this region. At their best, both teams can smother and stifle with their full-court pressing defenses after made shots. They can dice up in the halfcourt with drives to the rim and create open 3s. The Lady Vols finished third nationally with 10.1 3s per game and in attempts per game. The Buckeyes made 6.5 per game, twice as many as the Longhorns on average.
Tennessee is first nationally in points off turnovers, and Ohio State ninth nationally, per CBB Analytics. If mistakes are made, both of these teams thrive.
No. 12 seed South Florida and No. 13 seed Montana State also bring unique styles that could create some havoc.
Where you see the true difficulty in this region is the volume of teams with a legitimate chance to make it to the Elite Eight. Notre Dame, the No. 3 seed, played at a level worthy of a No. 1 seed for much of the year and will undoubtedly be out to prove it was under-seeded. The Irish also beat Texas at Purcell Pavillion in South Bend earlier this season, setting up a potential star-studded rematch. TCU, the No. 2 seed, finished the season with the second-best offensive rating in the country, per CBB Analytics. The Horned Frogs earned their highest seed ever in March Madness, beat Notre Dame in nonconference play, and haven’t lost a game in over a month. No. 7 seed Louisville will provide challenges in this half of the region as coach Jeff Walz’s teams always seem to find a way. Michigan could also make a deep run after an impressive Big Ten tournament showing.
The Longhorns have the star power and depth, which could be enough for a trip to Tampa. However, they face a gauntlet of opponents from start to finish in Birmingham 3. If Texas finds itself in the Final Four in a few weeks, it will likely have faced the most difficult path of any team on the top seed line.
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This article originally appeared in The Athletic.
Texas Longhorns, Women's College Basketball, Women's NCAA Tournament
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