A riddle for you: If Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokić is enjoying the greatest statistical regular season in NBA history, and yet Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the massive betting favorite for MVP, according to BetMGM, would that make the Oklahoma City Thunder point guard's award campaign the most impressive ever?
With a handful of games to play before votes are tallied, let's take one last look at this year's MVP race.
SGA's advantage
Jokić's 29.7 points and 10.2 assists per game have generated a total of 3,485 points over 65 appearances. Meanwhile, Gilgeous-Alexander's nightly averages of 32.8 points and 6.4 assists have yielded a total of 3,525 points in 72 games. While Jokić has had his hand in more points per contest (53.6 to 49), Gilgeous-Alexander's availability for an additional seven games gives him the overall edge in offensive production.
Objectively, this is Gilgeous-Alexander's advantage. Forty points over seven games. But should it be?
The Nuggets are 4-7 in Jokić's absence and have been outscored by 8.3 points per 100 possessions when he is not on the floor. One is a 30-win pace; the other is a 19-win pace. Either is bad. The Thunder are 2-1 in games Gilgeous-Alexander has missed and have outscored opponents by 4.2 points per 100 possessions when he is not on the court. One is a 55-win pace; the other is a 52-win pace. Both are good.
Statistically speaking, Jokić has elevated a roster that would otherwise be a lottery team into a top seed (Denver is currently third in the Western Conference, two losses behind the Houston Rockets); Gilgeous-Alexander has lifted a team that could compete for the No. 1 seed into one that is running away with it.
One can subjectively argue that making good teams great is more valuable than making bad teams good.
Jokić's pressure points
Jokić is averaging a 36-12-9 (on 64% true shooting) per 36 minutes in the clutch, when games are within five points in the last five minutes. SGA has averaged a 39-5-4 (66 TS%) in similar situations. Both rule.
Only Jokić has played in 30 clutch games to Gilgeous-Alexander's 20. In other words, 46% of Jokić's production this season has come in games that come down to the wire, as opposed to 28% for SGA. Significantly more of Jokić's numbers have come under higher pressure. This is another objective fact.
Then again, one could still subjectively argue that Gilgeous-Alexander has put his team in position to win games by large margins, though we have already established that he has a more ...
