At this point, it seems there's not much more Nikola Jokić can do to win his fourth NBA MVP. It seems like the decision that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander would win the award was made a while ago.
Though, a ridiculous record-setting 61-point triple-double by Jokić on Tuesday night did at least move the odds. Just not to the point where it's reasonable to think Jokić can win MVP.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander opened the week as a -5000 favorite (bet $5,000 to win $100) to win MVP at BetMGM. That's an implied probability of 98%. SGA was practically a lock to win.
And, practically speaking, he still is. But, the odds did move in Jokić's direction, even if he's still a massive underdog.
NBA MVP odds for Nikola Jokić, SGA
After Jokić scored 61 points with 10 rebounds and 10 assists in a double-overtime loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves on Tuesday night, the MVP odds at BetMGM shifted on Wednesday morning.
Gilgeous-Alexander's odds moved from -5000 to -2500. Jokić shifted from +1500 to +1000. BetMGM isn't offering MVP odds on any other player.
That seems like a fairly big move, but it still doesn't move SGA out of a near-lock position. The implied probability of a -2500 bet is 96.2%. There's still not much chance of Jokić winning the award, based on the betting odds.
An ESPN straw poll reflected that SGA is the clear favorite, though maybe not as heavily as the odds would suggest. Of 100 NBA insiders that ESPN polled, 77 voted for Gilgeous-Alexander and 23 voted for Jokić.
If a 61-point triple-double, the most points ever put up in a triple-double, doesn't flip the odds — just like a 31-point, 21-rebound, 22-assist triple-double by Jokić on March 7 didn't budge the odds much — then it seems like the NBA can start engraving the trophy.
Is voter fatigue affecting the race?
Gilgeous-Alexander has had a great season, but it sure seems like voter fatigue is playing a part in him being a runaway favorite to win MVP.
Jokić has won three of the past ...
