Oregon basketball vs. Arizona: Who has the edge in the 2025 NCAA Tournament Second Round

After dismantling the Liberty Flames, 81-52, in the first round on Friday night, the Oregon Ducks are advancing to the second round of the 2025 NCAA Tournament. Their matchup is the Arizona Wildcats — a 4-seed and a former Pac-12 foe — in a 6:40 p.m. PT game on Sunday night.

Like Oregon, Arizona destroyed their first-round opponent, the Akron Zips, defeating the 13-seed 93-65. Oregon and Arizona have been on similar paths all year. The Ducks finished the Big Ten Tournament with a 24-9 season record, and after their conference tournament, the Wildcats were 22-12 on the year. This season, most of Arizona's opponents were in Quadrant 1, and the Wildcats went 10-11 in those games. The Ducks played fewer Quad 1 games than Arizona but went 8-7 in them.

The Wildcats are led by Tommy Lloyd, one of the better young coaches in college basketball. This is Lloyd's fourth year at Arizona, and while he's taken his team to the tournament all four years, he's 5-3 once he gets there. Only two of those wins have come after the first round, and in 2023, Arizona lost as a 2-seed to 15-seeded Princeton in the first round.

The last time the Ducks and Wildcats met was in the semifinal of last year's Pac-12 Championship. Arizona was a Top-10 team in the country and a shoo-in for March Madness while Oregon's only road to the NCAA Tournament was as an automatic qualifier. The Wildcats had destroyed the Ducks twice already that season, but in the conference tournament, Oregon came out on top and booked their ticket to the tournament the next day with a win over Colorado.

Last time, this matchup was lopsided, but this time around, this pair of teams is of even caliber. Sunday's game will be the 61st meeting between these two teams, and that history should make for a great game. Below are our predictions for how things will shake out.

Players To Know

Oregon

PG Jackson Shelstad: 13.4 Pts, 2.9 Reb, 2.7 Ast, 1.0 Stl, 37.5 3P%
C Nate Bittle: 14.1 Pts, 7.5 Reb, 1.9 Ast, 2.2 Blk, 51.0 FG%
G TJ Bamba: 10.3 Pts, 3.4 Reb, 3.0 Ast, 1.8 Stl, 38.5 FG%

Arizona

PG Caleb Love: 16.4 Pts, 4.3 Reb, 3.5 Ast, 1.2 Stl, 38.7 FG%
G Jaden Bradley: 12.0 Pts, 3.4 Reb, 3.7 Ast, 18.8 Stl, 46.5 FG%
F Henry Veesar: 9.4 Pts, 5.1 Reb, 1.3 Ast, 1.1 Blk, 60.4 FG%

Keys to the Game

Oregon

Control the tempo, especially on defense. Arizona likes to play with pace which helps them score a lot of points.
Force Caleb Love to take bad shots.
Force Arizona to take threes. As a team, they shoot over 20 per game but make less than a third.

Arizona

Get Caleb Love hot early.
Force Bittle into switches on pick-and-rolls to open up the paint. The Wildcats are one of the most efficient interior offenses in the country.
Protect the defensive glass. Arizona has been bad at preventing offensive rebounds and second-chance points all year.

Betting Odds

Moneyline: Oregon: +146 | Arizona: -176

Spread: Arizona: -3.5 points

Over/Under: 152.5 points

My Picks

Under. I hate picking the under, but after both teams had offensive explosions in the first round, I think this total inflated too much. I think both teams will cool off when faced with a power conference defense and play a low-scoring, but still exciting, game.
Oregon Moneyline. You knew it was coming, but I truly think Oregon will win this game. The Big Ten season has prepared the Ducks for games like this, and I think the Ducks have matchup advantages over the Wildcats 1–5.

This article originally appeared on Ducks Wire: Oregon vs Arizona prediction, pick for March Madness second round

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