Ole Miss basketball vs Michigan State prediction: Our pick for 2025 NCAA tournament Sweet 16
Ole Miss basketball is in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA tournament for the second time in school history.
No. 6 seed Ole Miss (24-11) will face No. 2 Michigan State (29-6) on Friday (6:09 p.m. CT, CBS) in Atlanta. Coach Chris Beard's Rebels beat No. 11 North Carolina 71-64 and No. 3 Iowa State 91-78 to advance.
The Spartans, led by coach Tom Izzo, have beaten two double-digit seeds in their march through the bracket: No. 15 Bryant 87-62 in the first round and No. 10 New Mexico 71-63.
Here are the keys to the matchup:
Will Sean Pedulla, Ole Miss shooters stay hot on 3-pointers?
Michigan State has the No. 5 defense in the country, according to KenPom. The success comes in large part from defending the 3-point line, where MSU is ranked No. 1.
The advanced metrics play out on the court. The Spartans allow 67 points per game, which is No. 3 in the Big Ten.
Although Ole Miss hasn't been overly reliant on 3-pointers in the regular season, the deep ball has been a boost in the NCAA tournament. The Rebels shot 8-for-20 on 3-pointers against UNC and 11-for-19 against the Cyclones. That adds up to 19-for-39 (49%) across the tournament. If Ole Miss keeps that up, it will be difficult to beat.
Sean Pedulla, Jaemyn Brakefield, Matthew Murrell, Jaylen Murray and Dre Davis all have made multiple 3-pointers in the tournament.
Rebounding will be huge — and it's been a weak spot for Ole Miss
Michigan State rebounds well. Ole Miss has struggled. It's an on-paper deficit the Rebels will need to make up on the court.
The Spartans outrebounded Bryant 54-29 and New Mexico 34-28. It has been a trend the whole season, as they are the No. 2 rebounding team in the Big Ten. Jaxon Kohler, a 6-foot-9 forward, leads the Spartans with 7.8 rebounds per game.
Although Ole Miss finished 15th in the SEC in rebounding this season, it has been better in the NCAA tournament. The Rebels grabbed five fewer than Iowa State but six more than North Carolina.
Buy Ole Miss NCAA tournament tickets vs. Michigan State
Chris Beard, Tom Izzo have battled in NCAA tournament before
Ole Miss coach Chris Beard and Michigan State coach Tom Izzo have matched up before in March Madness.
Beard's Texas Tech Red Raiders played Michigan State in the 2019 Final Four. The Red Raiders won 61-51 behind a 22-point performance from senior point guard Matt Mooney. The Spartans' points were their season low.
There are some similarities between that game and the coming rematch. Michigan State was a No. 2 seed in 2019. The Rebels likely will need another strong offensive performance from senior point guard Sean Pedulla to pull off the upset.
Ole Miss vs Michigan State prediction: March Madness Sweet 16
Michigan State 79, Ole Miss 78: Michigan State is a little better than the Rebels statistically, but March Madness is about feel. The Rebels are playing great basketball. MSU didn't look great against New Mexico. With 7:39 remaining, the Spartans were tied 51-51. Expect Ole Miss to give them everything they can handle.
Sam Hutchens covers Ole Miss for the Clarion Ledger. Email him at Shutchens@gannett.com or reach him on X at @Sam_Hutchens_
This article originally appeared on Mississippi Clarion Ledger: Ole Miss vs Michigan State prediction, pick, odds March Madness
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