There’s always plenty of discourse surrounding the NFL Draft and positional value.
Some teams are averse to selecting certain positions with premium picks. It’s why tight ends, interior offensive linemen, safeties, and running backs are chosen rarely inside the top half of the draft.
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The belief is that those positions offer less value to a team and its success than, say a quarterback or an edge rusher. Thus, bad teams are more willing to take risks at QB and ED to drastically improve their team quickly.
In many cases, this necessity for positions of high value leaves teams reaching for players who might not warrant such selections. Given this, many of those lower-priority position players may fall further than their talent may deserve.
As the NFL Draft is now less than three weeks away, let’s take a look at each position’s hit rate, according to Pro Football Focus.
On Day 1 of the NFL Draft or the first round, the positions with the highest hit rates are some of the positions least chosen. Tight end has a 73.3% hit rate but just 15 selections from 2006-2019.
Read: The Jaguars’ most mocked prospect, Mason Graham
Offensive tackle (73.0%), safety (71.4%) and interior offensive lineman (70.0%) closely trail as the positions with the highest hit rates. Ironically, offensive tackle aside, these are some of the least chosen positions in the first round as well.
When looking at the positions with the lowest hit rates in the first round, edge rusher (49.3%), cornerback (50.0%), and receiver (56.9%) bottom out the list.
When shifting the focus to Day 2 of the NFL Draft, it is much of the same with a few key exceptions. Defensive tackle, which saw a respectable 63.2% hit rate on Day 1, plummets to just 20.7% on Day 2, only above edge-rusher and quarterback.
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Running backs seem to perform better on Day 2, as the position had the third-highest hit rate after an average Day 1 hit rate. To the surprise of no one, there is value to be had at running back on Day 2.
Interior offensive line, safety, running back, and offensive tackles make up the positions with the highest hit rates on Day 2. In fact, interior offensive linemen nearly have a 5% lead on second place with an incredibly reliable 48.6% hit rate.
Across both days, interior offensive linemen have the highest hit rates, with tackles not far behind in third. If you need to beef up your line, drafting OL on Day 1 or Day 2 is about as safe as it gets.
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Ironically, the Jaguars are one of just three teams to have never selected an interior offensive lineman in the first round. Despite struggles across the line for years, the team has focused its resources elsewhere and, at times, paid dearly for it.
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