NCAA tournament preview: No. 16 Mount St. Mary’s vs. No. 1 Duke
Duke sets sights on No. 6 heading into what feels like a deep March run
RALEIGH – Transitioning from the elation that comes with one tournament championship to the NCAA tournament introduces a challenge unique to this time of year.
Everybody is back on zero — or was entering this week, as the tournament is underway and a handful of teams are already on their way home. Understanding the difficulty might be best explained in this number: Of the last 12 NCAA tournaments, the championship has been won by a team that won its conference tournament five times.
Which brings Duke into the equation. There’s more of an ominous feeling — historically, anyway — when considering six of the last seven national champions from the ACC didn’t win the league’s tournament.
So, how do the Blue Devils — so hyper-focused on a singular goal and destination this season — move past the celebration in Charlotte and find the reset button for this week?
“We said it all year, we haven’t done shit,” Mason Gillis said. “And we won’t have done shit until we win the national championship. It’s that easy.”
OK then.
Not that this team has shied away from making its intentions known, but the bluntness is both refreshing and appreciated. Each of the last two seasons, Duke has a talented-but-flawed roster, resulting in 5- and 4-seeds for this tournament, followed by second-round and Elite 8 exits, respectively.
Now the Blue Devils have a juggernaut of a team that’s embraced the loftiest of expectations.
Here’s what to know ahead of Friday’s first-round game:
Time: 2:50 p.m.
Location: Lenovo Center, Raleigh.
TV: CBS.
Announcers: Ian Eagle (play-by-play), Bill Raftery and Grant Hill (analysts), Tracy Wolfson (sidelines).
Series; last meeting: N/A, teams have never met.
The winner will …: Face the winner between Friday’s earlier game, 8-seed Mississippi State and 9-seed Baylor, in the second round on Sunday.
Records: Mount St. Mary’s 23-12; Duke 31-3.
Stat to watch: 21.6%.
That is Mount St. Mary’s turnover rate, which is eighth-worst in the country (per KenPom and through some of Thursday’s games).
Duke doesn’t excel in forcing turnovers — it’s strangely one of the poorer aspects of its defense. The Blue Devils’ defensive turnover rate is 17.7%, which is still in the top half of the country, but pales in comparison to some other areas where Duke is in the top 10 or 20 of a defensive metric.
In this game, though, look for Duke to exploit Mount St. Mary’s lack of ball security and create some transition offense.
Matchup to watch: Mount St. Mary’s forward Dola Adebayo (No. 4) vs. Duke’s Cooper Flagg (No. 2).
Yes, obviously, watch Flagg. You’ve got a maximum of six games left to do so while he’s wearing a Duke uniform. And watch how he moves on his left ankle.
Within this one, though, is Flagg matching up against a load of a 4-man for the Mountaineers.
Adebayo (6-8, 210) can shoot 3s and has taken two of them per game. But he’s more of a slashing, posting big man, which you don’t see a bunch of in the ACC (Clemson’s Ian Schieffelin is a good example of one).
Duke switches defensively so often that Flagg might not be the one guarding Adebayo in the post all that much, but he’s at least going to be starting possessions against him. Adebayo had 22 points in the Mountaineers’ First Four win in Dayton on Wednesday night.
Mountaineer to watch: Center Jedy Cordilia (No. 14).
Playing in your first NCAA tournament game as a senior is a good time to tie your career high in scoring.
The big man from Netherlands scored 22 against American, making 10 of 11 shots. It was his fourth game of the season with at least 20 points, only the second that didn’t go to overtime, though.
Cordilia isn’t a 3-point threat — he’s 2-for-17 in his career — but he was effective enough on the interior against American to warrant the attention of Duke’s post players.
Blue Devil to watch: Wing Kon Knueppel (No. 7).
Duke’s last game was the first time in 10 games that Knueppel didn’t make a 3-pointer, and he’s gone 0-fer on 3-pointers six times this season.
You want to see something that illustrates Knueppel’s growth throughout the season?
In the five games Knueppel didn’t make a 3-pointer, he averaged 4.8 points. That was an 11-point game against Kansas, three six-point games (Auburn, George Mason and California), and a scoreless game against Boston College.
Knueppel missed all five 3-pointers he took in the ACC championship game against Louisville; he finished with 18 points, making 6 of 7 shots inside the arc and all six of his free throws.
That, along with eight rebounds, three assists and two steals, helping Duke to the ACC title.
KenPom prediction: Duke wins 85-56.
Injury report: If you haven’t heard by now — Cooper Flagg is good to go and the outlook isn’t nearly as positive for Maliq Brown.
Mount St. Mary’s will be without Carmelo Pacheco, its top 3-point threat. He has been out with a finger injury. The Mountaineers are also expected to be without Terrell Ard Jr., a senior forward averaging 10.9 points and 7.2 rebounds per game. He hasn’t played since Feb. 28.
What a Duke loss looks like: The sky is falling?
This is a weird one. Duke has played worse teams than Mount St. Mary’s this season. And you’ve got to be good on some levels to make it to the NCAA tournament.
But Duke is also the far superior team in this one. It feels like it’d take some wild shooting swings on both ends for Duke to lose this game.
What a Duke win looks like: In one word, businesslike.
To tie this all the way back to Gillis’ point, Duke has been locked in on a single purpose this season. It’s a team that hasn’t ever seemed to get caught up in the periphery.
That should translate to a sizable win with some dominant stat categories — rebounding, turnovers, 3-point shooting, to start — to kick off this tournament.
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