Keys to the Game and Scouting Look: UConn
Four years ago, the Sooners fell to top-seeded Gonzaga, 87-71, in the Round of 32. Not long after, Lon Kruger retired, ushering in a new era in Norman — the Porter Moser era.
In Moser’s first year, Oklahoma finished 19-16 in the Big 12, narrowly missing the tournament as one of the first four out. Year two brought a step back, with the Sooners finishing 15-17 and well outside the NCAA Tournament picture. Year three saw them claw back into contention, only to end the season as the first team left out, despite a 20-12 record.
Year four marked Oklahoma’s inaugural season in the SEC, and the pressure was on Moser to deliver a tournament bid. After a scorching 13-0 start that included a Battle 4 Atlantis championship, this year’s team looked different. But when the Sooners stumbled to a 3-9 start in conference play, it seemed like the same story might unfold — a strong start followed by a late-season collapse.
That wasn’t the case. In fact, the opposite happened. The Sooners turned things around, winning four of their last seven games and closing the season at 20-13. Now, for the first time since 2021, Oklahoma will play in the NCAA Tournament.
The Sooners face a challenge in the first round, squaring off against the reigning back-to-back NCAA Tournament champions — the UConn Huskies. UConn enters the game with a 23-10 record. Tipoff is set for Friday night at 8:25 p.m. CT in Raleigh, NC, airing on TNT.
Here’s a closer look at Dan Hurley’s squad and what Oklahoma needs to do to secure a win in the Big Dance, which would set up a second-round matchup against either Florida or Norfolk State.
Scouting UConn
This year’s UConn team isn’t the same as the ones that won back-to-back national championships under Dan Hurley. They’re led by three players averaging over 14 points per game, starting with sophomore Solo Ball, who posts 14.6 points and 3.5 rebounds on 44.4% shooting from the field and 42.2% from deep.
True freshman Liam McNeeley follows closely, averaging 14.5 points and 6.1 rebounds on 39.1% shooting from the field and 33.3% from beyond the arc. The third key scorer is Alex Karaban, one of two major contributors remaining from their championship run. Karaban averages 14.4 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 1.6 blocks while shooting 43.9% from the field and 35.7% from three.
At center, the Huskies rely on Tarris Reed, who averages 9.7 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 1.7 blocks on an impressive 67.7% shooting. He splits minutes with Samson Johnson, who adds 7.4 points and 3.3 rebounds per game. Running the point is Hassan Diarra, contributing 7.9 points, 5.8 assists, and 3.5 rebounds.
While UConn boasts plenty of offensive firepower, their defense has clear vulnerabilities. They rank 95th in defensive efficiency — the lowest of any at-large bid in the NCAA Tournament. Additionally, their three-point defense ranks 257th in the country. Among the high-major teams Oklahoma has faced, only Providence has defended the three worse.
Despite those weaknesses, UConn does excel in one defensive area: shot-blocking. The Huskies rank second in the nation in block percentage, swatting away 17.9% of opponents’ shot attempts.
Here’s how Oklahoma’s Round of 64 opponent stacks up across various statistical categories:
| Category | Offense | Defense |
|---|---|---|
Adj. Efficiency | 122.1 (14th) | 102.4 (92nd) |
Avg. Poss. Length | 19.4 (338th) | 18.0 (272nd) |
Effective FG% | 55.5 (28th) | 48.3 (59th) |
Turnover% | 17.1 (179th) | 15.5 (291st) |
Off. Reb% | 35.6 (24th) | 27.4 (63rd) |
FTA/FGA | 30.6 (256th) | 40.0 (333rd) |
3P% | 35.4 (89th) | 35.1 (257th) |
2P% | 57.3 (15th) | 46.0 (15th) |
FT% | 79.1 (10th) | 73.0 (236th) |
Block% | 8.9 (140th) | 17.9 (2nd) |
Steal% | 8.6 (62nd) | 8.1 (312nd) |
Non-Stl TO% | 8.5 (296th) | 7.4 (192nd) |
Keys to the Game
Shoot the Ball Well From Deep
One area where the Sooners have a clear advantage in this game is three-point shooting. Oklahoma ranks 34th in three-point shooting percentage, while UConn’s defense ranks 257th in that category.
The Sooners have shown the ability to catch fire from beyond the arc, often in quick bursts. Against a vulnerable Huskies perimeter defense, they’ll have opportunities to capitalize.
Leading the charge is Brycen Goodine, who ranks second in the SEC in three-point percentage (among players with at least 100 attempts), shooting 43.4% from deep. Additionally, Kobe Elvis has been red-hot, hitting 45% from three over the last seven games.
If Oklahoma can stay hot from beyond the arc, they’ll put themselves in a strong position to win. With such a significant edge in this area, capitalizing on open looks will be crucial for the Sooners.
You Win in March With Good Guard Play
Everyone knows that guard play is critical come March, and Oklahoma’s star freshman guard, Jeremiah Fears, is ready to be a nightmare for Hurley and the Huskies.
Over the last seven games, Fears has been on fire, averaging 22.7 points, 5.5 assists, and 4.5 rebounds. His SEC Tournament performances were nothing short of impressive — 28 points, five assists, four rebounds, and three steals against Kentucky, followed by 29 points, six rebounds, three steals, and two assists against Georgia.
A major factor in this matchup? UConn’s perimeter defense, which has been a noticeable weakness.
That’s where Fears can really capitalize. He’s been on a tear lately, and the Huskies’ defense is nowhere near as intimidating as what he’s seen in SEC play. Of course, UConn’s elite shot-blocking ability could create some problems when he drives inside the paint.
But here’s the thing: Oklahoma’s success has mirrored Fears’ performance all season, and that trend won’t change in the tournament. If the Sooners want to keep advancing, they’ll need their freshman phenom to stay hot, manage the game, and minimize turnovers.
Aside from Fears in the backcourt, the continued success from Elvis, the two-way play from Duke Miles, and the spark off the bench from Dayton Forsythe will be key. Lately, each of those three have had their moments, and the Sooners will likely need at least one of them, alongside Fears, to step up in a big way.
Mohamed Wague Must Refrain From Fouling
The Sooners have now played three games without Sam Godwin, who is likely to miss his fourth game on Friday. Against Texas, in his first start, Mohamed Wague played just 13 minutes due to foul trouble, picking up four fouls early.
In the SEC Tournament against Georgia, Wague had a career-high 28 minutes, totaling 12 points, nine rebounds, and four assists. When Wague plays like that, this Oklahoma team is far better off in the frontcourt, and it all starts with him staying out of foul trouble.
Against Kentucky, Wague once again found himself in foul trouble, forcing Oklahoma to lean heavily on Luke Northweather. Wague averages 8.0 fouls committed per 40 minutes, so it’s likely he’ll run into foul trouble again on Friday. However, if he can avoid it, this team won’t be overly mismatched in the frontcourt — though they’ll still be somewhat outmatched.
KenPom projects a 76-75 UConn win, so something as simple as Wague staying out of foul trouble could have a massive impact on the outcome of this game. Wague has stepped up in Godwin’s absence, and Oklahoma will need him to do so one more time.
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