Dodgers boast best MLB team. But in fantasy baseball, is it smart to draft them?
Poring over fantasy baseball player rankings can be jarring for diehard fans of a specific team who don't pay much attention to the other 29 clubs.
That might be especially true for the legions of devoted, deliriously satiated Dodgers followers this year.
Isn't this the most talented roster in history? Don't the Dodgers have a star at nearly every position? Isn't their pitching staff stocked with more premium stuff than the renowned Thunderbolt bar a few blocks from Dodger Stadium?
Everyone knows the Dodgers' World Series championship was followed by lavish spending for talent during the offseason. With the Dodgers opening the season Tuesday in Tokyo against the Chicago Cubs, it's time for fantasy players to prepare.
Dodgers fans might be tempted to simply pick as many Boys in Blue as they can. But a team of all or even mostly Dodgers would be hard-pressed to win a fantasy league, which usually consists of 10 to 12 teams. Players from all 30 MLB teams are available in "mixed" leagues, the most common format, meaning that even a slap-dash fantasy team should have more talent than the best team of living, breathing humans.
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Scott Pianowski, a Yahoo fantasy analyst since 2008 and member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Hall of Fame, brought up another reason not to load up on Dodgers: Their best players might be rested frequently, the baseball equivalent of load management. Players need to be in the lineup to accumulate fantasy points.
"I've never seen a team so assured of a playoff spot than the 2025 Dodgers," he said. "They want their healthiest team ready for October. They might decide they used their regulars too much last year. They might back off on workloads, and not just with pitchers.
"My advice: Draft a Dodger, don't draft five Dodgers."
Fantasy gurus assign a number to where a player is projected to be taken, calling it his Average Draft Position. Regardless of whether league scoring uses old-fashioned rotisserie categories or head-to-head points, the ADP of the two most desirable Dodgers establish that it would be nearly impossible to draft both.
Shohei Ohtani is a near-consensus first overall fantasy pick because he's expected to add starting pitching to his prodigious offensive output as a designated hitter. However, a smattering of experts consider Kansas City Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. a viable first pick as well. Pianowski points out that Ohtani likely will log far fewer than the 59 stolen bases he had last season to reduce the wear and tear on his body, especially if he is also in the starting rotation.
Read more:Analysis: Why Dodgers don't necessarily need Shohei Ohtani to pitch to start the season
Mookie Betts is a consensus top-10 pick because he qualifies as a shortstop as well as an outfielder (a player is eligible at a position he played in 20 or more games the previous season). In his fifth Dodgers season, Betts played 65 games at shortstop and 43 in the outfield. He also played 18 at second base, nearly becoming eligible at a third position.
Most drafts use a snake format in which the order of picks reverses each round. Whoever gets the top pick — say Ohtani — in a 10-team league wouldn't pick again until the Nos. 20 and 21 picks. Betts would be long gone and Dodgers first baseman and World Series hero Freddie Freeman — whose ADP is 19 with Yahoo and 22 with ESPN — also might be taken.
So let's say you had the No. 1 pick and landed Ohtani, missed out on Betts and took Freeman with the 20th pick to end the second round. Now you have the first pick of the third round and quickly realize that no other Dodger makes sense this early.
Among position players, outfielder Teoscar Hernández is projected as a sixth-round pick and catcher Will Smith a 10th-rounder by numerous fantasy prognosticators. Tommy Edman is draftable late because of his versatility. Same with Max Muncy because of his power. But that's it unless — like Pianowski — you consider new Dodgers outfielder Michael Conforto a sleeper whose home run production dipped during two years in the San Francisco Giants' cavernous AT&T Park, but last season he hit 17 homers on the road.
Want to mix in an Angel? How about Mike Trout? It wasn't so long ago that he was the no-brainer first overall selection in thousands of fantasy drafts. But after several injury-riddled seasons, the future Hall of Famer checks in as the 41st-best outfielder by ESPN. His Yahoo ADP is 93, an indication he'll be available in the ninth round.
Read more:Why Angels manager Ron Washington thinks 'things can go way better than you think'
Other Angels? In the 20th round or so, go ahead and choose between outfielders Taylor Ward and Jorge Soler or infielders Zach Neto, Luis Rengifo and Nolan Schanuel. In a 10-team league, they all might be available.
Drafting starting pitchers is just as eye-opening. The Dodgers' acquisitions of two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell and Japanese phenom Roki Sasaki combined with the renewed health of Yoshinabu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, Clayton Kershaw and Dustin May give them undeniable depth and experience.
Yet the top Dodgers pitcher in the projections is Snell, whom ESPN ranks as only the 12th-best MLB starter with an ADP of 44. Next are Yamamoto with an ADP of 51 and Glasnow at 91. Sasaki is projected as a 10th-rounder. Kershaw, May, Tony Gonsolin and Bobby Miller? All are either recently recovered or still recovering from an injury. It's buyer beware.
Dodgers relievers are modestly valued as well because it's unclear who will accumulate the bulk of the saves. Newcomer Tanner Scott has an ADP of 166, despite notching 22 saves and a 1.75 earned-run average last season with two teams. Kirby Yates has an ADP of 193, despite posting 33 saves and a 1.17 ERA with the Texas Rangers.
Decorated Dodgers bullpen pieces Michael Kopech, Evan Phillips, Blake Treinen and Alex Vesia? Your choice in the final rounds. Or you could grab former Dodger and new Angels closer Kenley Jansen, whose Yahoo ADP is 236 even though his ninth-inning role is a given.
Read more:'This kid is special.' Kenley Jansen eager to help Angels' Ben Joyce reach next level
The usage of pitchers has evolved in recent years, impacting fantasy values. Starters pitcher fewer innings, no longer accumulating wins and strikeouts in abundance. More than one reliever will be trusted in save situations, depending on matchups. Catastrophic injuries to pitchers are commonplace.
"The Dodgers probably will use a six-man rotation, so the sneaky value might be their relievers," Pianowski said. "Non-closing relievers are much more valuable. More wins are distributed to the bullpen. If I'm an owner in a deep mixed league, I would draft any of those Dodgers relievers."
Crunching these numbers unearths one irrefutable truth about drafting a fantasy team: Don't be a homer. See more than Blue.
Miss out on the first pick and Ohtani? Fantasy experts say stick with hitters in the first round: Witt, Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Elly De La Cruz, José Ramírez and Gunnar Henderson are solid picks.
Or, diehard Dodgers fans, go ahead and grab Betts.
Read more:MLB offseason winners and losers: Dodgers conquered. Here's how other teams fared
Angling for a starting pitcher in the second round? The ADP's of Paul Skenes, Tarik Skubal and Zack Wheeler merit a pick that high. Otherwise, the numbers point to grabbing another hitter.
Everybody wants to identify sleepers late in the draft. Some leagues even allow drafting minor league players. If that's the case, revisit your Dodgers devotion by taking Dalton Rushing. Then smile.
This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.
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