College basketball bubble watch, bracketology: Which teams need to win Friday?

As Selection Sunday creeps closer and closer, bubble teams are hoping that deep conference tournament runs will be enough to make it into the NCAA tournament. With just three more days of games to go before the 68-team field is revealed, here's a look at who feels good about sitting on the bubble and who is getting uneasier.

Might have done enough on Thursday

Texas (19-14): The Longhorns entered the SEC tournament as the No. 12 seed but have beaten two NCAA tournament teams to advance to the quarterfinals. Texas took down Vanderbilt on Wednesday before a double-overtime win over Texas A&M that could have guaranteed the Longhorns a spot in the NCAA tournament.

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Texas now ranks 38th in the NCAA’s NET rankings and is 7-10 against Quad 1 opponents. A lack of Quad 3 and Quad 4 losses helps too, and there will be no doubt about Texas’ tournament fate if it beats Tennessee on Friday.

A Texas March Madness berth will likely help the SEC get an NCAA-record number of teams into the men’s tournament and could also make for an awkward situation in Austin. Rumors have swirled about coach Rodney Terry’s future after a roller-coaster first season in the SEC. But can Texas make a coaching change if it makes the NCAA tournament?

NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE - MARCH 12: Kadin Shedrick #5 of the Texas Longhorns celebrates after the 94-89 2OT win over the Texas A&M Aggies during the SEC Men's Basketball Tournament - First Round at Bridgestone Arena on March 12, 2025 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images) — The Texas Longhorns won a crucial game over Texas A&M on Thursday. (Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

Needs another win to feel good

North Carolina (22-12): Win over Duke and in? That feels like the scenario for North Carolina after the Tar Heels took down Wake Forest on Thursday. The two rivals meet in the ACC tournament semifinals on Friday night and Duke is still a 7.5-point favorite even though Cooper Flagg is unlikely to play after suffering a left ankle injury on Thursday against Georgia Tech.

The absences of Flagg and Maliq Brown give North Carolina a real shot and the opportunity for a second Quad 1 win. The Tar Heels are three spots ahead of Texas in the NET rankings but are just 1-11 against Quad 1 opponents. If UNC loses Friday night and is out of the tournament on Selection Sunday, that lone win will be the reason why.

Boise State (23-9): The Broncos got a big win Thursday in the Mountain West tournament when they took down San Diego State 62-52. Boise State entered the MWC tournament firmly on the bubble and has a chance to creep closer to safety with a win over No. 1 seed New Mexico on Friday.

Boise State ranks just 43rd in the NET rankings and has played just seven Quad 1 games. But a win over New Mexico would put the Broncos at 3-5 in those games. And a second win in the MWC title game would make the bubble conversation irrelevant.

Done playing and could be in trouble

Indiana (19-13): The Hoosiers lost by 10 on Thursday to Oregon in the Big Ten tournament and look likely to miss the postseason and get a jump start on finding Mike Woodson’s successor.

A win over Oregon could have slipped Indiana into the tournament. Instead, the Hoosiers dropped two spots to No. 54 in the NET rankings and are just 4-13 in Quad 1 games. There’s not much to look at on Indiana’s resume to convince yourself the Hoosiers are worthy of the NCAA tournament. And if Boise State wins the Mountain West, it’s incredibly hard to see how Indiana is in.

Ohio State (17-15): Despite being just two games over .500, the Buckeyes are No. 41 in the NET rankings and rank higher than teams like Vanderbilt and West Virginia. Ohio State is 6-11 in Quad 1 games and 3-4 in Quad 2 games.

However, the Buckeyes finished 9-11 in Big Ten play and lost their final two games of the season to Indiana and Iowa. And their last two wins of the season came over USC and Nebraska by a combined seven points. Those teams each finished 7-13 in the Big Ten.

San Diego State (21-9): The Aztecs fell two spots to No. 51 in the NET rankings after their loss to Boise State. KenPom’s advanced analytics aren’t much friendlier, either. SDSU is at No. 46 there.

SDSU is 3-6 in Quad 1 games and 5-2 in Quad 2 games. Like Indiana, Boise State could be the major decider of the Aztecs’ tournament hopes if they steal a bid.

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