The race to avoid the play-in tournament in the Western Conference is once again on, and heated. And, for the third time in four years, Minnesota is at the center of it.
While the Timberwolves are firmly inside the top eight of the West standings, their playoff spot is not secure.
Much is still to be determined over the final week and a half of the regular season as they attempt to lock down their fourth consecutive playoff appearance, and climb as high as they can in the standings.
Schedules, tiebreakers and scenarios are all broken down below
What is the play-in, again?
It’s the Timberwolves’ annual rite of passage into the Western Conference playoffs. Kidding! (Kind of. Minnesota has played in the mini-tournament in two of the past three seasons, but that’s beside the point.)
The play-in tournament pits the Nos. 7-10 regular-season finishers in each conference against one another for two rounds of games — played the week between the end of the regular season and the start of the playoffs — to determine who captures the No. 7-8 seeds in each conference.
The No. 7 seed plays the No. 8 seed, with the winner earning the No. 7 seed in the first round of the playoffs. The loser goes on to play the winner of a game between teams No. 9-10 in a win-or-go-home game for the No. 8 seed.
So, if you enter the play-in as the No. 7 or No. 8 team, you’d have to go 0-2 to miss the playoffs. If you’re the No. 9 or No. 10, you have to go 2-0 to make the playoffs.
Seems like the Wolves would win at least one of those play-in games?
That’s true. Even if worst came to worst, and Minnesota both didn’t finish in the top six and dropped its first play-in tournament game, it would be left with a home game almost certainly against one of Sacramento, Dallas or Phoenix, teams the Wolves would be heavily favored to beat.
So, does it really matter if they have to play in it?
Yes, for a few reasons. First off, no one wants to risk potential elimination in a win-or-go-home game. Secondly, teams that finish in the top six get a full week off before the playoffs start, the value of which was widely acknowledged by players and coaches last spring.
The Wolves looked like a rejuvenated, refocused team as they swept Phoenix out of the first round, a stark contrast to the year prior, when Minnesota dropped its first two games in Denver after having to play two play-in games leading up to its first-round series.
Lastly, even if a team survives the play-in tournament to reach the West playoffs as the No. 8 seed, its reward is a first-round series with Oklahoma City. And while the Wolves have competed well with the Thunder in recent years, opening the playoffs against the conference favorite is far from ideal.
What’s Minnesota’s current situation?
Minnesota can realistically finish the regular season anywhere from the No. 5 seed to No. 8. Memphis, Golden State, Minnesota and the Clippers all entered Tuesday’s NBA slate separated by just one game in the loss column with seven games to play.
As of Tuesday afternoon, the standings were as follows:
No. 5: Memphis (44-31)
No. 6: Golden State (43-31)
No. 7: Minnesota (43-32)
No. 8: Los Angeles Clippers (43-32)
The Wolves hold the tiebreaker over the Clippers via their 3-0 record against Los Angeles. Who finishes No. 7 and No. 8 matters, because whoever is No. 7 would host that first play-in game.
But the Wolves would like to climb out of that tournament ...
