Can FGCU reach Sweet 16 in Women’s March Madness? Predictions for why and why not
The FGCU women's basketball team has been one of the most successful mid-major programs in the nation over the past decade, earning eight consecutive NCAA Tournament berths.
The No. 14 Eagles (30-3) will make their 11th all-time appearance Saturday when they take on No. 3 Oklahoma (25-7) at 2:30 p.m. at Lloyd Noble Center in Norman. No. 6 Iowa and No. 11 Murray State are the other teams in the pod with the Sooners and Eagles and play at noon Saturday.
This is the second straight year FGCU and the Sooners match up in the first round. Last season, the No. 12 Eagles let an early double-digit lead slip away in a 73-70 loss to No. 5 Oklahoma in Bloomington, Ind.
FGCU is 4-10 all-time in the NCAA Tournament, with three of its victories coming as a No. 12 seed. The Eagles have never made it past the Round of 32. Could this be the year FGCU reaches the Sweet Sixteen?
Here's why the Eagles can — and can't — advance to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament.
FGCU coach Chelsea Lyles learned from the best
The Eagles first-year head coach spent more than a decade as an assistant for FGCU architect Karl Smesko. Lyles took over the program early this season when Smesko left to become the head coach of the WNBA's Atlanta Dream and proceeded to lead the Eagles to a 30-1 finish and their ninth consecutive ASUN Tournament Championship.
Lyles will have a well-constructed plan to stymie the Sooners, one that should give FGCU a shot at avenging last season's loss. It most likely will center on the Eagles controlling the game's pace and forcing Oklahoma into mistakes. The Sooners struggled to take care of the ball this season, averaging a tick under 19 turnovers per game.
FGCU needs to get offensive
Even with a defense that's allowing a shade over 53 points per game, the Eagles will likely need to deliver their best offensive performance of the season to upset Oklahoma.
That means two-time ASUN Player of the Year Emani Jefferson, a tough cover for any defender, must finish her drives to the basket. Beyond the arc, Eagles shooter Dolly Cairns and Alahna Paige, who combined for 119 3-pointers and 42% shooting from deep, need to connect on their open looks.
History not on FGCU's side
This is the lowest seed FGCU has ever drawn for a NCAA Tournament. No 14 seed has ever won a women's tournament game, posting a combined record of 0-120. Add in the fact the Eagles will have to face Oklahoma on its home court, where the Sooners went 13-0 against non-SEC opponents this season, and the path to victory gets that much narrower for FGCU.
Since 2015 when the NCAA moved first and second rounds games to the home campuses of the top four seeds in each region, those teams are 128-0 in the first round. The only win by a bottom four seed during that time came in 2021 when No. 13 Wright State defeated No. 4 Arkansas 66-62. However, that game was played at the University of Texas in Austin due to COVID-19 restrictions.
Oklahoma is on a roll
The Sooners ran off seven consecutive SEC wins to close out the regular season, capped by a victory over then-20th-ranked Alabama. Oklahoma knocked off Georgia and then No. 12 ranked Kentucky to reach the SEC Tournament semifinals where it lost to eventual tourney champion South Carolina.
Junior 6-foot-4 center Raegan Beers has been a force in her first season with the Sooners after transferring from Oregon State. She led the team in scoring (17.5 points per game), rebounding (8.9) and blocks (33) while shooting 66% from the field.
How to watch FGCU vs. Oklahoma
Time: 2:30 p.m. Saturday
Channel: ESPNU
Streaming: Watch ESPN or ESPN+; Sign up for a free Fubo TV Trial
Women’s March Madness bracket
Want to see the full 2025 NCAA Women's Basketball bracket. CLICK HERE
FGCU women's basketball NCAA Tournament history
- 2012: No. 5 St. Bonaventure 72, No. 12 FGCU 65 (OT)
- 2013: No. 5 Oklahoma State 61, No. 12 FGCU 60 (OT)
- 2015: No. 7 FGCU 75, No. 10 Oklahoma State 67; No. 2 Florida State 65, No. 7 FGCU 47
- 2017: No. 4 Miami 62, No. 13 FGCU 60
- 2018: No. 12 FGCU 80, No. 5 Missouri 70; No. 4 Stanford 90, No. 12 FGCU 70
- 2019: No. 4 Miami 69, No. 13 FGCU 62
- 2021: No. 6 Michigan 87, No. 11 FGCU 66
- 2022: No. 12 FGCU 84, No. 5 Virginia Tech 81; No. 4 Maryland 89, No. 12 FGCU 65
- 2023: No. 12 FGCU 74, No. 5 Washington State 63; No. 4 Villanova 76, No. 12 FGCU 57
- 2024: No. 5 Oklahoma 73, No. 12 FGCU 70
This article originally appeared on Naples Daily News: FGCU women’s basketball March Madness bracket predictions for 2025
Topics
-
Can Vanderbilt reach Sweet 16 in Women’s March Madness? Predictions for why and why not
Can the Vanderbilt women’s basketball team reach the Sweet 16? Our 2025 March Madness bracket predictions show how it can make an NCAA Tournament run.Yahoo Sports - 2d -
Can Vanderbilt basketball reach Sweet 16 in March Madness bracket? Our prediction
Can Vanderbilt basketball reach NCAA bracket’s Sweet 16? Our 2025 March Madness predictions show how Commodores can make run in tournament.Yahoo Sports - 2d -
Can Missouri basketball reach Sweet 16 in March Madness bracket? Our prediction
Can Missouri basketball reach the NCAA bracket’s Sweet 16? Our 2025 March Madness predictions show how MU can break 16-year second weekend absence.Yahoo Sports - 1d -
Why Louisville can make a deep run in our 2025 March Madness bracket predictions
Can Louisville basketball reach the Final Four? Our 2025 March Madness bracket predictions show how the Cards can make a run in the NCAA Tournament.Yahoo Sports - 2d -
Can Tennessee basketball reach Final Four in March Madness bracket? Our prediction
Can Tennessee basketball reach NCAA bracket’s Final Four? Our 2025 March Madness predictions show how Vols can make run in tournament.Yahoo Sports - 2d -
Can Oregon basketball reach Final Four in March Madness bracket? Our prediction
Can Oregon basketball reach NCAA bracket’s Final Four? Our 2025 March Madness predictions show how Ducks can make run in tournament.Yahoo Sports - 2d -
FGCU women’s basketball March Madness prediction: Where Eagles could land in NCAA bracket
Where FGCU women’s basketball’s March Madness predictions stand on Selection Sunday, when the 2025 NCAA Tournament bracket will be revealed.Yahoo Sports - 3d -
Here's why South Carolina women’s basketball can, or can't, repeat as national champions
It’s South Carolina vs Tennessee Tech in the March Madness bracket. Here’s our prediction, pick for the 2025 NCAA Tournament.Yahoo Sports - 2d -
Can Notre Dame women reach Final Four in March Madness? Our prediction
Let's assess whether the Irish can make it to the final weekend of the NCAA Tournament.Yahoo Sports - 2d
More from Yahoo Sports
-
Oklahoma Sooners in the rankings after sweep of Arkansas in SEC play
A look at where the Oklahoma Sooners rank in the major polls after their three-game sweep of the Arkansas Razorbacks.Yahoo Sports - 17m -
Oklahoma Sooners in the rankings after sweep of Arkansas in SEC play
A look at where the Oklahoma Sooners rank in the major polls after their three-game sweep of the Arkansas Razorbacks.Yahoo Sports - 17m -
How the Lakers' offense has changed since Luka Doncic's arrival
Since Luka Doncic came to the Lakers, their offense has evolved by leaps and bounds, and they're only starting to tap into their potential.Yahoo Sports - 17m -
How the Lakers' offense has changed since Luka Doncic's arrival
Since Luka Doncic came to the Lakers, their offense has evolved by leaps and bounds, and they're only starting to tap into their potential.Yahoo Sports - 17m -
Check the yardage book: Innisbrook's Copperhead Course for PGA Tour's Valspar Championship
PuttView offers a detailed course guide for the PGA Tour's Valspar Championship at Innisbrook's Copperhead Course.Yahoo Sports - 18m
More in Sports
-
Play Connections: Sports Edition. Tackle Today’s Puzzle.
Group sports terms that share a common thread.The New York Times - 10m -
The First Pick of the W.N.B.A. Draft Is Easy. Then the Questions Start.
Paige Bueckers is poised to be another No. 1 overall pick from UConn, a columnist for The Athletic writes.The New York Times - 10m -
What Will the Giants Do if They Don’t Sign Aaron Rodgers?
A Super Bowl champion could be New York’s best backup option.The New York Times - 10m -
March Madness Might Belong to Cooper Flagg. The N.B.A. Draft Definitely Will.
The Duke star isn’t the only player hoping to make an impression on teams in the N.C.A.A. tournament.The New York Times - 10m -
Ranking the 50 Best Pitchers in M.L.B., Led by Six True Aces
The six elite arms range in age from Paul Skenes at 22 to Chris Sale at 36.The New York Times - 10m