Auburn vs Alabama State prediction: Who has edge in 2025 NCAA Tournament first round?

After two days of waiting, Auburn basketball finally learned who it would face in the first round of the NCAA Tournament.

Auburn, the top overall seed of the NCAA Tournament, draws Alabama State from nearby Montgomery after the Hornets stunned St. Francis on Tuesday during the NCAA First Four. Despite being outplayed offensively, Alabama State outscored the Red Flash, 36-29 in the second half to secure the 70-68 win. Sophomore Guard Amarr Knox sealed the win with a layup with 0:01 remaining in the second half. He finished the game with a team-leading 16 points and two steals.

How does Auburn stack up with Alabama State? Here is a full breakdown of the matchup ahead of Thursday's tipoff.

How the Alabama State Hornets got here

The Hornets upset Jackson State in the SWAC Championship Game to earn a spot in the NCAA Tournament. In Tuesday's First Four game with St. Francis, the Hornets shot 43% from the field, 31% from three-point land, and an abysmal 25% from the free-throw stripe. Alabama State trailed for more than 30 minutes of game time and was behind by as many as nine points. However, they connected on four of their final five field goals including the last-second layup to earn the win.

How the Auburn Tigers got here

Auburn wrapped up the SEC regular season championship on March 1 with a win over Kentucky in the very building they will play their NCAA first round game, Rupp Arena. The Tigers won 15 of their first 16 SEC games before dropping three of its final four games, including its most recent loss to Tennessee in the SEC Tournament semifinals. Auburn grabbed the No. 1 overall seed for the NCAA Tournament by boasting a 16-5 record against Quad-1 competition, two wins more than Houston, the No. 2 team in the category.

Players to watch

Auburn's player to watch is forward Johni Broome. Broome has first-team honors from several outlets and is in the running to win a few more after ending the regular season averaging 18.9 points and 10.9 rebounds per game. Broome has reached double-figures in 27 games this season, which includes 17 games with 20 or more points. He has scored at least 20 points in his last three games.

For Alabama State, CJ Hines is the most dangerous. Hines is second in points with 14.3 per game, 0.1 less than the team's leader, Amarr Knox. However, Hines shoots 42.5% from the field with a 38.9% three-point percentage. He is a consistent player on both sides of the ball, which could keep Alabama State within striking distance in Thursday's game.

Auburn prediction vs Alabama State: March Madness first round

Auburn holds a glaring advantage in every category over Alabama State. However, the Hornets have won seven games in a row and find ways to win despite facing adversity throughout the game. Auburn should win this game but do not be surprised if the Hornets play the Tigers close.

Prediction: Auburn 93 Alabama State 73

This article originally appeared on Auburn Wire: Auburn vs Alabama State prediction for March Madness first round