Analyzing and predicting MSU basketball's draw in NCAA Tournament

It's Selection Sunday and in just a few hours we'll know who, when and where Michigan State basketball will be playing in the postseason.

For the first time in a few years, Michigan State comes into Selection Sunday without any doubt that they'll be dancing in the NCAA Tournament. The Spartans heading back to the big dance will continue a streak of consecutive tournament bids that dates back to 1998 -- which is the longest active streak in the country.

Michigan State will carry a 27-6 record into the NCAA Tournament, which included winning the Big Ten Championship by three games. The Spartans came into this weekend in the mix for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament but Saturday's loss to Wisconsin in the Big Ten Tournament semifinals ended any chance of that happening.

So where do we think Michigan State will be playing in the postseason? What seed will they get? Who will they face in the tournament? I'm here to give some insight on what we already know heading into Selection Sunday, and where I think the Spartans will ultimately land when the official bracket is revealed later today.

What we know already

It is apparent that Michigan State is going to be a No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament. According to the Bracket Matrix, every single included bracketologist has the Spartans as No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament projections. So, unless the selection committee throws a curve ball, we can safely peg the Spartans as a No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Another thing I feel pretty comfortable about predicting for the Spartans is that they'll be opening the NCAA Tournament in Cleveland. The nearby Ohio city is one of the host sites for first and second round games, and is the closet possible destination for Michigan State. It would be surprising if the selection committee sent the Spartans anywhere else for the opening weekend.

The first and second round games in Cleveland will be played on Friday and Sunday. This isn't a 100% lock like the No. 2 seed, but I would recommend planning on the Spartans opening the tournament on Friday.

Predicting the Spartans' region

With the seed and opening weekend destination mostly locked up, we can turn our focus to analyzing which region the Spartans will land in. There is a lot of complexity to this prediction as it'll ultimately come down to where the selection committee puts the projected No. 1 seeds.

It appears Auburn, Duke, Houston and Florida will be the No. 1 seeds, and Michigan State, Alabama, Tennessee and St. John's will be the No. 2 seeds. The selection committee will work to avoid placing the four No. 1 and No. 2 seeded SEC teams in the same regions, so it gets somewhat tricky on where the Spartans can land.

The most common projection I've seen is...

South Region: No. 1 - Auburn / No. 2 - Michigan State
East Region: No. 1 - Duke / No. 2 - Tennessee
Midwest Region: No. 1 - Houston / No. 2 - Alabama
West Region: No. 1 - Florida / No. 2 - St. John's

So the easy prediction for the Spartans is simply in the South Region with Auburn as the No. 1 seed. However, there is a wrinkle that could alter this all. Joseph Duarte of the Houston Chronicle posted on Saturday night that Houston would prefer to play in the West Region over the Midwest Region. This would shake things up quite a bit.

For what it’s worth as Selection Sunday approaches, I was told by two different people today that Houston has requested the West Region, which plays second weekend in San Francisco.
— Joseph Duarte (@Joseph_Duarte) March 15, 2025

If this were to occur, then things could shift where the Spartans end up in the Midwest Region -- which is played in Indianapolis. Here's how that could play out...

South Region: No. 1 - Auburn / No. 2 - St. John's
East Region: No. 1 - Duke / No. 2 - Tennessee
Midwest Region: No. 1 - Florida / No. 2 - Michigan State
West Region: No. 1 - Houston / No. 2 - Alabama

In this scenario, St. John's could end up in the Midwest Region and Michigan State still in the South Region. But let's not kid ourselves that the NCAA Tournament is an entertainment business and putting the Spartans in Indianapolis would put more fans in the stands. So if that is a possible outcome, I would assume the committee makes it work.

Ultimately, my prediction is that the Spartans will end up in the South Region with Auburn, but the Houston-West Region wrinkle could shift things in Michigan State's favor. Now, all of these potential draws will be tough, but playing closer to home in Indianapolis would certainly be the best possible outcome (not taking into consideration the other seeding possibilities since that is simply too hard to predict). So I'm personally hoping we see the Spartans land in the Midwest Region -- even if that means you're grouped with the red hot Florida Gators.

How to watch the selection show

The full official NCAA Tournament bracket will be revealed on Sunday evening at 6 p.m. ET. The bracket reveal will be televised on CBS.

Contact/Follow us @The SpartansWire on X (formerly Twitter) and like our page onFacebookto follow ongoing coverage of Michigan State news, notes and opinion. You can also follow Robert Bondy on X @RobertBondy5.

This article originally appeared on Spartans Wire: Breaking down and predicting MSU hoops' NCAA Tournament draw on Sunday

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