2025 NFL free agency: With Anthony Richardson and Daniel Jones in house, where do Colts go from here?

Indianapolis Colts general manager Chris Ballard and head coach Shane Steichen’s assessment caught the scouting combine audience off guard.

A quarterback competition?

After less than two full seasons of evaluating quarterback Anthony Richardson, whom they selected with the fourth overall pick?

“It’s got to be the right guy to create real competition, but we want to create real competition,” Ballard said Feb. 27. “I think it’s good for the team. I think it’s good for Anthony.”

Steichen echoed: “Competition at any position, whether it’s the quarterback position or wherever it may be, I think it makes everyone better.”

There was, and is, reason to question the Colts’ public skepticism in the quarterback they’d previously committed to developing along a rollercoaster ride.

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But there’s also reason to believe that Indianapolis’ approach didn’t catch Richardson by the same surprise it caught much of the league. Because seven weeks before Ballard and Steichen took the podium, Richardson was asked in an end-of-season locker interview: Would he welcome a quarterback on the roster to compete with him? How would he process that?

Richardson didn’t flinch or dismiss the idea.

“I’m a natural competitor,” he instead replied. “I’ve been competing all my life. I love competing. So if the team feels like that’s the right direction they want to go in, then I’m all for it. I’m competing. If not, I’m still here competing.”

The Colts chose Door 1 this week when they signed former New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones to a one-year deal worth $14 million. The deal is a slightly more expensive version of Sam Darnold’ 2024 Minnesota Vikings contract ($10 million), suggesting the club knows a similar outcome could follow: Jones starting.

Darnold’s opportunity came after a season-ending injury to rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy. But Richardson has missed time in both seasons due to injury, and also time last year due to his play.

He knows what’s on the line.

“You can lose your job in a day,” he said Jan. 6. “I just got to make sure I’m on point, doing everything I can to make sure I’m helping this organization go in the right direction. And the rest is up to God.”

Why the Colts felt the need to challenge Richardson

Through two seasons in Indianapolis, Richardson has played just 15 games. He underwent shoulder surgery for an AC joint sprain after four games his rookie year and was benched last season after controversially tapping out of a game.

Critics around the league say Richardson’s professionalism and work ethic is unlikely to change after two seasons of evidence. But supporters ask: Is a player’s first season back from an injury – much less a throwing injury for a quarterback – representative of their ceiling going forward?

Richardson’s performance from four games as a rookie to 11 in his second campaign dipped. In Year 1, he completed 59.5% of passes for three touchdowns to one interception, also rushing for four touchdowns and 136 yards.

A year later: Richardson’s completion percentage dropped 11.8 points to 47.7%, his 1,811 yards now accompanying eight touchdowns and 12 interceptions in 11 games. A year after clocking an 87.3 passer rating in a small sample size, Richardson fell to 61.6.

Cue the Colts signing Jones.

“We drafted Anthony high knowing it was going to take some time and we knew there was going to be some hiccups along the way,” Ballard said at the combine. “I know we all want a finished product right now… but as he continues to progress in his young career, us adding competition I think will help up everybody’s game.”

The best-case scenario for Indianapolis is that adding a player who has started the last six seasons lights a fire in Richardson psychologically while an additional year’s passage from his shoulder injury smooths his mechanics physically.

Ballard acknowledged the rehabilitation limitations for Richardson between Year 1 and 2, and the time away from development that rehabilitation took.

Quarterbacks returning from throwing arm injuries must increase their load and intensity gradually, as a runner recovering from a sprained ankle must walk and jog before sprinting. Richardson should be able to amass reps of abrupt and aggressive throws this year in a way he could not last year, focusing more on timing and form in hopes of improving his accuracy and passer rating from their league-worst numbers among 43 starting quarterbacks.

“We know he’s training well,” Ballard said. “Last offseason Anthony spent a lot of time rehabbing. So now he can focus on time training and developing and getting better fundamentally, which will be fun to watch.”

Daniel Jones’ early opportunities will hint at Colts’ plans

The Colts have indicated twice that Jones will be in serious contention for their starting position. The first indication was Ballard and Steichen’s willingness to say they’d let a free-agent acquisition compete with their 2024 first-rounder. The second is Jones’ $14 million salary in 2025.

This isn’t the clear “pole position” that the Pittsburgh Steelers gave Russell Wilson a year ago. But it’s money where their mouth is that Jones is important to the Colts’ 2025 plans.

Jones is scheduled to make the 20th-most cash of quarterbacks, per Over The Cap, at a position in which 32 players start. That ranking requires context, as rookie wage scales often drive down the contract values of quarterbacks in their first four-plus years. But even setting aside Jones outearning players like C.J. Stroud and Jayden Daniels and his own teammate in Richardson, Jones’ salary will far exceed the backup pool that often makes closer to $2-$3 million. Right now, the only healthy quarterback who’s scheduled to make more and not start is Kirk Cousins, a year after the Atlanta Falcons signed him to a $100 million deal and then drafted Michael Penix Jr. eighth overall.

Cousins is unlikely to start in Atlanta, but could still start if he and the Falcons find a trade partner in a market where demand outweighs supply.

Jones arrives after two down seasons and his own 2023 injury in New York, which released him last November and cleared the way for Jones to finish the season with the Minnesota Vikings.

In New York, he played 70 games with 69 starts. Jones completed 64.1% of passes for 14,582 yards, 70 touchdowns and 40 interceptions. Jones also rushed for 2,179 yards and 15 scores. His best year was 2022, with running back Saquon Barkley still on the roster and Brian Daboll in his first year as head coach. Jones’ passing numbers weren’t electric that year – 67.2% completion rate, 200.3 yards per game – but his efficiency included a league-best 1.1% interception frequency. He threw 15 touchdowns to five interceptions, rushing for seven more and 708 yards. Jones and Barkley powered a zone-read game to a playoff berth.

The style was not unlike what the Colts could envision for Richardson or Jones alongside Jonathan Taylor this year.

Who will win out? The Colts will likely tip their hand on how true of a competition this is as soon as late spring.

If Richardson and Jones are given the same chance to prove themselves going forward, they should receive the same number of reps and first-team reps over the course of an offseason segment, running the same plays to smooth direct comparisons. Steichen, offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter and quarterbacks coach Cam Turner should chart their progress in that scenario. A quantitative analysis of on-field work should complement a qualitative analysis of the quarterbacks’ meeting presence, film work, interaction with teammates and leadership.

“You have to trust and listen to your leaders,” said a former offensive coordinator, who coached a quarterback battle. “Who do they feel most comfortable with, if it’s close?”

Richardson’s opportunity to be their answer appears intact but fragile.

“I can’t really control everything that comes with the NFL,” he said. “But I know I can control what I can and I’m going to do my part.

“Be the best version of myself for this organization.”