Summary: Harper is a big-bodied lefty combo guard with NBA blood in his veins, as the son of Ron Harper, who was a 20/5/5 guy before winning five titles as a role player. Like his father, Harper has a high-floor with the skill, poise, and playmaking instincts to dictate the game at his pace. But the fate of his jumper will determine whether he’s an All-Star or just one of the league’s many solid guards.
Comparisons: Deron Williams, Jrue Holiday
Strengths
Crafty at-rim finishing: Harper looks like James Harden on drives to the basket, and not because he’s a lefty. He fluidly strings together dribble moves, keeps a low dribble especially when splitting pick-and-rolls, and can use his bulky frame to shield defenders to finish through contact using touch. Prime Harden was a better vertical athlete with a quicker first step, but Harper is a near 70% scorer in the restricted area, and his deep bag of pivots, floaters, and off-hand finishes makes him a terror at the rim whether he’s finishing or drawing fouls.
Poised ball-handling: He plays at his own tempo, leveraging change of speed, a slick handle, and physicality rather than raw burst to get where he wants on the floor. Sometimes it seems like he’s moving slow, but that’s because he wants to. This style makes him advanced for his age navigating pick-and-rolls, though his jumper must progress for him to fully unlock his talents.
Playmaking: Harper is a good decision-maker who tends to make the right play, and he can make all the standard passes like interior dump-offs, lobs, and kickouts. He isn’t some savant playmaker, but he’s beyond capable at running the show.
Spot-up shooting: In a multi-creator offense, it’ll be important that Harper continues progressing as an off-ball player. At Rutgers, he showed the ability to hit shots off the catch, making 36.8% of those chances. His release is a little low, but overall looks smooth.
Defensive upside: Harper carried such a heavy offensive load at Rutgers, his average defense is forgivable for now. At his size, with such long arms, and strong spatial awareness, he should end up as a much more engaged defender in the long term. The flashes of competitive defense against opponents of varying sizes offer enough reason for optimism.
Concerns
Shooting: Harper is capable of getting hot off the dribble, but he’s streaky and his averages are subpar from the free throw line, the midrange, and beyond the arc. This was an issue for him in high school too, and remains his biggest concern entering the NBA. As a 27.8% shooter on dribble-jumpers from 2-point range and 29.2% from 3, can he survive as a primary creator? Could he get to the rim the way he does in college? He’ll need these numbers to significantly improve.
Burst: Not an explosive player off the dribble, whether it’s his first step or his leaping in traffic. Many of his midrange shots are contested, and he’s largely a below-the-rim finisher. If his jumper doesn’t someday click, this would cap his scoring upside.
Lateral quickness: His size is a plus, but staying in front of shiftier guards could be a challenge at the next level since even in college he had struggles staying in front of quicker guards.
