Republican narrowly leads in race for Slotkin's Michigan House seat

Republican Tom Barrett is narrowly leading Democrat Curtis Hertel in the race to replace Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) in the House, according to a new poll.

A survey from Emerson College Polling and The Hill found Barrett edging out Hertel in Michigan’s 7^th Congressional District at 47 percent to 45 percent, with close to 7 percent undecided.

Because the poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 4.2 percentage points, the two candidates— both of whom are former state senators — are effectively tied.

Slotkin opted against running for reelection in her district, which includes Lansing and is situated between Grand Rapids and Detroit, to run for the Senate seat left open by retiring Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.).

President Biden won Slotkin’s district by half a percentage point in 2020, making it one of the most competitive House seats in the country.

Barrett lost to Slotkin by more than 5 points in 2022, but the open seat could hand him a new opportunity.

The survey found Barrett with a 46 percent favorable rating while 43 percent had an unfavorable opinion of him. Hertel had a 45 percent favorable rating with 34 percent saying they had an unfavorable opinion of him.

“Barrett has an advantage among independent voters in the district, who back him 47% over Hertel’s 41%, though 10% of independents are still undecided ahead of the election,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, explained in a press release.

In a nod to the competitiveness of the district, the survey found that Vice President Harris and Donald Trump each received 49 percent support in the presidential race, with more than 1 percent saying they were undecided.

When undecided voters are asked whom they’re leaning toward, Trump and Harris both see their support raised to close to 50 percent.

The survey from Emerson College Polling and The Hill was conducted between Oct. 24 and Oct. 26 with 535 likely voters from the 7^th District sampled. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.