Majority supports Florida abortion amendment, but not enough to pass: Poll

A ballot measure to enshrine abortion protections in Florida’s Constitution does not have enough support to pass, according to a new poll.

The survey from St. Pete Polls conducted for FloridaPolitics.com showed a majority of voters support the measure — far more than those who would vote “no.” There were also nearly 8 percent who said they were undecided or wouldn't answer. But Florida requires an unusually high threshold of 60 percent of voters to approve a ballot measure, and the poll showed the measure falling short with 54 percent.

The poll of 1,227 likely Florida general election voters was conducted from Oct. 23-25 with a 2.8 percentage point margin of error. Nearly 80 percent of Democrats said they were in favor of the amendment, while nearly 59 percent of Republicans said they were against it.

Supporters of the amendment hope to persuade the undecided voters, who comprise 9 percent of Republicans and 7.5 percent independents, according to the poll.

Abortion rights have won in all seven states where there has been a ballot question in the two years since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade. Florida is one of 10 states this year with abortion ballot questions, and polling shows the measures are set to pass in nearly all of the other nine — but those states just need a simple majority.

Nebraska has two competing abortion ballot measures that would have completely opposite impacts. State officials have said that the measure with the most votes in support would take effect.

No abortion question to date has managed to get 60 percent approval, though Kansas came close in 2022 when voters defeated an amendment to remove protections for abortion rights with 59 percent support.

Polls on the Florida amendment have shown varying levels of support, though most show it just short of the threshold. A Florida Atlantic University poll showed 56 percent support in August, while an Emerson College/The Hill poll in September showed 55 percent.

A University of North Florida poll released Friday showed exactly 60 percent support, while a New York Times/Siena College survey from earlier this month shows it well short, at just 46 percent.

Florida’s “Yes on 4” campaign has raised at least $100 million, but Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and his allies in the administration are deploying all levers of government power to try to stop the amendment from passing.

A Republican-controlled state panel added a financial statement beneath the question on the November ballot, stating that the amendment could cost the state money because of lawsuits.

Then last month, the state agency in charge of running Florida’s Medicaid program launched a website attacking the amendment. At least three public agencies have aired television and radio ads against the measure.

The state Department of Health threatened local television stations that had run an ad supporting the amendment, and a state election police unit visited residents’ homes as part of a fraud investigation into the signature-gathering process months after the measure was approved.