Harris leads Trump by 4 points in final PBS News/NPR/Marist poll; gender gap closes

Vice President Harris leads former President Trump by 4 percentage points, according to the final PBS News/NPR/Marist poll before the election.

In their national survey of likely voters, Harris has the support of 51 percent of respondents, and Trump has support from 47 percent. The poll also revealed that among independents, Trump has a 5-point lead.

The survey found the gender gap has dwindled significantly during the final days ahead of the election.

Previously, Trump led among male voters 57 percent to Harris’s 41 percent, but now leads 51 percent to 47 percent. Harris’s lead among women has also declined, with her previous 18-point lead shrinking to 11 points.

The top-line results of this survey are nearly identical to those of 2020, which showed President Biden with the support of 51 percent of respondents and Trump with 47 percent as well.

Harris also has shrunken the lead Trump has with white voters. In 2020, the GOP candidate led by 12 percentage points, but now leads by 9. However, she has seen a slight decline in support from Black and Latino voters compared to Biden in 2020.

The PBS News/NPR/Marist survey found Harris’s efforts to cross party lines might be working, as 8 percent of Republicans say they will vote for Harris compared to the 5 percent who said the same a month ago. Only 4 percent of Democrats say they will support Trump.

Fifty-five percent of likely voters in this poll have already cast their ballot, and one-third of voters say they plan to vote in person on Election Day. Forty percent of Trump supporters said they planned to vote in person on Nov. 5.

Among those who have already voted, Harris leads Trump, 56 percent to 42 percent. But with voters who have yet to cast ballots, 53 percent plan to vote for Trump, while 45 percent support Harris.

The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s polling averages have Trump and Harris tied at 48.3 percent nationally.

The PBS News/NPR/Marist poll was conducted from Oct. 31 to Nov. 2 among 1,297 likely voters. It has a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.