Harris holds slim lead over Trump in new survey

Vice President Harris holds a slim lead over former President Trump in a new national survey from The Economist and YouGov.

The survey, conducted over the last four days, shows Harris leading Trump among registered voters, with 48 percent support to his 46 percent. Harris also leads Trump among likely voters, with 49 percent support to Trump's 46 percent.

No other candidate gets more than 1 percent support in either group. In both groups, 3 percent of respondents say they are unsure how they will vote.

Among registered voters, Harris leads among ideological “moderate” voters, with 55 percent support to Trump’s 35 percent. However, when looking at party ID, her advantage narrows among self-identified “independent” voters, with 45 percent support to Trump’s 39 percent.

With the election less than two weeks away, the pool of persuadable voters for either campaign to win over grows increasingly narrow — especially as early and mail-in voting has already begun in many states.

Among registered voters who say they intend to vote for Harris, 2 percent say they could change their minds between now and the election; 3 percent of registered voters who say they intend to vote for Trump say the same.

On whether registered voters would consider voting for Trump, 50 percent say they would and 50 percent say they would not consider it.

Harris has a slim advantage on that question, with 53 percent of registered voters saying they would consider voting for her and 47 percent saying they would not.

The latest poll is somewhat consistent with the national polling average from Decision Desk HQ/The Hill, which shows Harris leading Trump by 0.9 percentage points, with 48.7 percent support to his 47.8 percent.

With much of the country set in their voting preferences, the race will ultimately come down to a small number of battleground states, where both candidates' electoral votes are still in play.

The survey was conducted Oct. 19-22, 2024, and included 1,422 registered voters. The margin of error is 3.2 percentage points.