World War III is now Trump's to lose

President elect-Donald Trump’s true defining moment is coming. Future historians likely will not judge him based on his two impeachments, felony convictions or his ever-present hyperbole, but rather whether or not he wins World War III.

So far, the tea leaves are troubling. Many of Trump’s key advisors remain in deep denial, as evinced by Vice President-elect J.D. Vance and Tulsi Gabbard, Trump's choice for director of national intelligence. They see his primary role come January 20 as preventing a third global war. They apparently cannot see that we are already in the midst of it.

Negotiations with Russia would be futile. History tells us that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s words are meaningless. Anything short of a complete withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukraine and the restoration of their 1991 borders would be a victory for the Kremlin.

The defeat of Russian forces is the best outcome, and precision deep-strike weapons are a vital part of that outcome. Now is the time to invoke General Ulysses S. Grant — to close with and destroy the enemy, applying relentless pressure until they capitulate.

Speed is of the essence. Russia fatigue is real in the U.S. Nevertheless, Russian intrigue is very real, and it is not going to go away. Nor is Putin’s war against the West, and in particular his war against Washington.

Putin is fighting to win. And it is clear as day that the Kremlin is betting on Trump becoming his unwitting partner.

Consider Putin’s actions since Trump was elected. He has continued to escalate the war in Ukraine, including doubling down on Russian military strikes against civilian targets and infrastructure ahead of winter.

Russian and North Korean forces are in the early stages of a counteroffensive in the Kursk Oblast and Putin is continuing his grinding World War I-like onslaught in the Donbas against teetering Ukrainian positions along the Kupiansk-Kharkiv axis.

Moscow is also demonstrating, either as distraction or as the opening of a third front, that it might begin a counteroffensive in Zaporizhzhia to the south. One of Putin’s early goals was to strip Ukraine of its entire Black Sea coastline, including seizing Ukraine’s vital commercial seaport in Odesa.

This would threaten Moldova and help secure Moscow’s grip on Georgia, where the Russian navy is building a new naval port for its Black Sea Fleet Headquarters after it was forced to vacate Crimea.

Trump may be tired of “Russia, Russia, Russia,” but that is the stark reality he will face after he returns to the White House. Russia is not going away, but rather Russia is coming for him and our way of life.

Rightly, many in Trump’s sphere see China as our pacing military and economic threat. Men like Rep. Mike Waltz, Sen. Marco Rubio and former Rep. John Ratcliffe who are respectively being put forward as Trump’s national security advisor, secretary of State and CIA director, acknowledge that Beijing represents a clear and present danger.

They also are all on record as arguing that the U.S. cannot afford to give Putin a win in Ukraine and eastern Europe. If Trump does that, it would be tantamount to giving Chinese President Xi Jinping a strategic win — and it would only embolden and strengthen the rapidly coalescing "Axis of Evil" partnership between Russia, China, Iran and North Korea.

Naively, however, some in Trump’s circle believe he is facing an either-or situation between China and Russia. Their argument is that to defeat Xi and his designs on the Indo-Pacific, Trump must make peace with Putin.

Nothing is further from reality. Presently, a badly weakened Russia represents a significant military and economic drag on China. Both economies are reeling due to collapsing fundamentals and under the weight of massive military expenditures.

The Russian ruble is imploding. It is now trading at less than one U.S. penny on international exchanges. Inflation in Moscow is spiraling out of control. CNN reports that “butter, some meats, and onions are about 25 percent more expensive than a year ago,” and that “some supermarkets have taken to keeping butter in locked cabinets.”

China is unlikely to hit its annual GDP growth target of 5 percent after reporting only 4.6 percent annualized GDP in the third quarter. And now, Beijing is being forced to invest $1.4 trillion domestically “to revive the economy, authorizing local governments to refinance crushing debts that have left some cities unable to pay their bills.”

Meanwhile, in Ukraine, Russia is down for the count. Putin is increasingly under siege at home, in eastern Europe and in the Caucasus. There is no reason for Trump to give Putin the opportunity to survive and fight another round. He would risk losing World War III.

Moldovans recently voted in a referendum to approve entry into the European Union. Moscow is now confronted with dealing with “a potential coup in Abkhazia, a breakaway part of Georgia, whose Russia-sanctioned government has been hit by mass protests.” And large street protests demanding new elections continue in Tbilisi, the capital of Georgia.

Putin is signaling he is under pressure. His public changing of Russia’s nuclear doctrine on Tuesday said as much. After President Biden greenlit the limited use of U.S. made ATACMS in Kursk, Putin signed a decree declaring that any “conventional attack on Russia by any nation that is supported by a nuclear power” could result in a nuclear strike on Kyiv and/or that power or NATO.

Putin knows he cannot win a nuclear exchange, nor is Xi about to allow him to drag China into a nuclear conflagration. This means Putin is holding a losing hand, and he knows it. All he can do is to try and use Washington’s fear of nukes as a bluff, and hope that Trump is just as naive as Biden has been.

But make no mistake. Ukraine is also nearing its breaking point. Biden’s "just enough" military strategy has left Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his generals badly exposed. Ukraine, without sufficient weapons, munitions or combined arms capabilities, could collapse in the Donbas if nothing is done.

Putin knows this, which explains why he is willing to go "all in." He is not seeking to negotiate with Trump come January. Rather he is seeking a de facto capitulation by Washington, Brussels and Kyiv.

A Trump loss in Ukraine would be far more calamitous than Biden’s disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2022. It would embolden and tell Moscow, Beijing, Tehran and Pyongyang that they can win World War III.

This global war will soon be Trump’s to lose — or he can boldly win it. Trump already holds the winning hand, so long as he is wise enough not to fold.

Mark Toth writes on national security and foreign policy. Col. (Ret.) Jonathan Sweet served 30 years as an Army intelligence officer.