Betting Markets Favor Trump. But Their Record of Accuracy Is Mixed.

FirstFT: Republicans complete Congress sweep

Also in today’s newsletter, France boycotts COP29 and renowned conservative lawyer dies

World - Financial Times - November 14

Palantir becomes a ‘Trump trade’ as investors bet on higher defence spending

Peter Thiel-founded data company, whose biggest client is the US government, rises $23bn in value since election

World - Financial Times - 4 days ago

Elon Musk predicts ‘hardship,’ economic turmoil and a stock-market crash if Trump wins

Musk’s agenda is like your new family doctor promising a major dose of brutal chemotherapy when you are perfectly healthy and cancer-free.

Business - MarketWatch - October 31

Trump transition official says RFK Jr. wants to force vaccines off the market

Howard Lutnick, co-chair of the Trump-Vance transition team, said in a Wednesday interview that former presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who is backing former President Trump, is ...

Politics - The Hill - October 31

More Iran sanctions and 'drill baby, drill': Oil market's future is still uncertain under Trump

The picture for the oil market's longer-term outlook under a new Trump presidency is, well, decidedly mixed.

Business - CNBC - November 6

Here’s what can stall Trump’s tax and tariff plans

Surging 10-year Treasury yields could temper Trump administration plans that risk growing the large U.S. deficit.

Business - MarketWatch - November 6

‘Trump trades’ move into overdrive as Dow, dollar and bond yields soar. What’s next for markets.

The question for investors is what happens once the postelection euphoria wears off.